Amateurcapper

Exactly 12 weeks until the Kentucky Derby, the posturing and perseverating is over…’Tiz time for the top contenders to roar as Master Baffert matches skill with Padawan Harty in the Lewis; Acid test for the WirePlayers.com Derby Dozen list

While the top gun in California, LOOKIN AT LUCKY, recovers from a minor temperature that kept him off the track this week, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G.2) will bring the west coast Kentucky Derby picture into focus despite the cloudy/rainy weather.

The much anticipated 2010 and two turn debut of AMERICAN LION for WinStar Farms and Eoin Harty while the Lanni Family/Mercedes Stable partnership and Bob Baffert send undefeated sprinter TIZ CHROME for a two turn and class test against five other three-year-olds over 1 1/16 miles on the Pro-ride at Santa Anita Park.

(6) AMERICAN LION is the #4 rated Derby prospect in the WirePlayers.com Derby Dozen poll. He’s been very professional in his last two wins at the demanding 7f sprint distance, indicating that he’ll see every bit of this 8 ½ furlongs. However, this is by no means the end game for the son of back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classic winner TIZNOW and his work tab bears that out. There are gaps of as few as six days and as many as 11 days between works. If he wins, it will be purely on talent as it appears AMERICAN LION is a short colt who will gain quite a bit of conditioning coming out of the race. View his final work:

AMERICAN LION is doing it on his own, a much better work than back on January 7:

Prior to the Hollywood Prevue (G.3) win, Harty had his top Derby hopeful on a tight six-day sequence between works. View the results of that preparation for yourself:

HOLLYWOOD PREVUE (G.3)

Look for Julien Leparoux to position AMERICAN LION in mid-pack before asking his mount to finish the final 3/16 with gusto. I’m anticipating his “A” game for the next start, likely in the G.2 San Felipe Stakes on March 13. One day, Harty will get a WinStar runner by TIZNOW to win the Derby.

(3) TIZ CHROME ranks #7 on the WirePlayers.com poll despite not having won a two turn race or a graded stakes event. Like AMERICAN LION, he is a son of TIZNOW so he should be able to stay the trip. However, unlike his brother from another mother, TIZ CHROME is built low to the ground and well-muscled like a sprinter. It will be interesting to see what kind of muscle fiber type ‘CHROME has under those dapples. From his works, Baffert has him wound as tight as a drum for the R.B. Lewis Stakes. He returned to the tab just 11 days after his scintillating Stuka Stakes win in 1:14 2/5 from just off the pace.

STUKA STAKES

Since then, Baffert has him on a 6-7 days schedule. Baffert already took the first graded event for sophomores at the Santa Anita meeting when his CONVEYANCE wired the San Rafael Stakes (G.3) field in convincing fashion. It will be disappointing to his connections if TIZ CHROME didn’t continue Baffert’s dominance with a Lewis Stakes win today. If he succeeds, it’s on to the next step on the Kentucky Derby trail. If not, TIZ CHROME could become a superior sprinter with stamina up to a Metropolitan Mile around one turn.

There is some talent behind the top two colts in the Lewis Stakes starting with (2) DAVE IN DIXIE for Ike and Dawn Thrash and trainer John Sadler. The $310,000 Keeneland April two-year-old-in-training sales graduate won his debut at Del Mar from off the pace in August. He was the “wise-guy” colt in the Norfolk Stakes (G.1), starting at a relatively underlaid 4-1 with an eye to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Unfortunately, he drew post nine of 11 in his first route, broke dead last and didn’t have a winning chance thereafter. DAVE IN DIXIE was a willing partner for Joel Rosario, drawing to within 2 ¼ lengths and a 5th place finish. He was taken out of training to freshen him for this campaign. He’s been worked every six days over the last five weeks and should be primed for a top effort off the bench. If he exceeds the effort of his previous races, DAVE IN DIXIE could be vulnerable along the Derby trail. The son of DIXIE UNION also gives up winning experience and does not have route win experience or speed figure advantages against the top two or some other entrants. Factor in that he gives up racing condition to both ‘CHROME and ‘LION, I can’t endorse him for the win today despite the company line showing LOOKIN AT LUCKY. Most likely to complete the trifecta and could sneak into the exacta if one of the top two are not at their best at the trip, off the bench.

(4) CARACORTADO is a game California-bred gelding, undefeated in four starts but this is his first start against open stakes company. I have much respect for trainer Michael Machowsky, who took another Blahut Stables runner, SOUTHERN IMAGE, to national prominence from December 2003 to May 2004. His current charge, also owned in part by Lo Hi Racing, has winning experience around two turns over the top competition in the Lewis Stakes, but defeating two fillies (EVENING JEWEL and LA NEZ are entered in the G.1 Las Virgenes today) in each of those routes isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of his quality to win a race like this. Factor in that CAT DREAMS has been more of a speed/sprint sire of precocious starters and CARACORTADO will need to run the race of his life to hit the board. If he proves a cut below, look for him to get a freshening and show up in the Snow Chief restricted to Cal-bred three-year-olds in late April at Hollywood Park.

(1) MACIAS is part of Baffert’s second string, not bad right? He couldn’t hold off AMERICAN LION in the Hollywood Prevue despite being based in California and having a stakes winning experience over ‘LION who shipped in from a Keeneland off just a maiden win. The pace is cloudy due to the presence of stretch-out NoCal invader TANGO TANGO, who’s rated a bit off the pace in the past, and stable mate TIZ CHROME. None of the three have been “need-the-lead” but MACIAS will likely need to break on top and set/press the pace to avoid losing tactical position. I’m also not convinced the son of PURGE wants more than a mile so early effort could compromise his finish. With a 6 furlong stakes win in 1:08 4/5, I’m looking for this Zayat Stables runner to regroup soon and become a sprinter during the Hollywood Park stand a la ZENSATIONAL for the same connections.

(7) DOMONATION looks like he has some talent, but can’t seem to put it all together consistently. He’s shown flashes, like his maiden win w/ first-time blinkers and his closing 2nd to TIZ CHROME in the Stuka Stakes. However, he just ran in one place sort of one-paced in the San Rafael to get up for 3rd. I’ve long felt that a late bloomer with a maiden win in November can’t possibly become a bona fide Kentucky Derby prospect. I’m looking for him to get a break soon to prepare for a summer campaign for the partnership of Joy Ride Racing or La Cresta Farm at Hollywood Park, with his end-game being the Swaps Stakes in July.

OTHER STAKES ACTION

BLIND LUCK will be hard to deny in the G.1 Las Virgenes if she can repeat her G.1 Hollywood Starlet run. Two variables...rain and Pro-ride. Not the biggest lock in the world but a deserving favorite on past accomplishments.

EAGLE POISE could be, well, "poised" for a upset in the G.2 Strub Stakes. MISREMEMBERED (pictured right) will be the favorite but he's a much better horse on dirt. He may just be too classy for these, but EAGLE POISE will be coming at him down the lane.

QUALITY ROAD looks like the biggest lockola in the Donn H., doesn't he?

LADY SHAKESPEARE can overcome her post to capture her first graded stakes in the G.3 Suwanee River.

COURT VISION will be heavily favored to improve on his 3rd in last year's G.1 Gulfstream Park Turf H.

Enjoy the day's action!