GAME ON, RON - The 2013 Santa Anita Handicap features first-ever match up of past Big ‘Cap winners.

The 2013 Santa Anita Handicap features first-ever match up of past Big ‘Cap winners.

It’s hard to believe that GAME ON DUDE and RON THE GREEK are the first two prior winners of the G.I Santa Anita Handicap to race against each other in the history of the race.  The race, once known as the “Hundred-Grander” because of the gaudy purse for Great Depression era America, is regaining national prominence as the definitive winter G.I race for 4y.o.’s and up on the main track as the country claws out of a severe economic recession in 2013.

Triple Crown winner AFFIRMED, “the best horse to look through a bridle” SPECTACULAR BID, and venerable gelding JOHN HENRY are nationally known winners of the Big ‘Cap.  However, 1940 victor SEABISCUIT is probably the best known of them all.  The Charles Howard-owned gelding, trained by Tom Smith, is romantically remembered as a beacon of hope in what was a downtrodden society.  SEABISCUIT overcame an oppressive early career to win a match race against WAR ADMIRAL, finish second twice in the Big ‘Cap during the Great Depression, and won the “Hundred-Grander” at age seven after a year off and recovering from what was believed to be a career-ending injury.

Fast forward to 2013 and a pair of 6y.o.’s, a rare occurrence in G.I racing over the last few decades, are trying to win the race for the second time.  Ironically, both are blue collar horses like SEABISCUIT was.  People identify with them because they race year in and year out and have reached prominence from relative obscurity.  GAME ON DUDE was purchased privately at three for the Derby trail and beyond, but wasn’t up to the task.  He’s been gelded some time ago, has now won multiple G.I races earning over $3.2 million and will race as long as he’s sound.  His story sounds sort of like a human going to work, climbing the ladder for many years, with an eye to retirement.  RON THE GREEK is from the stallion FULL MANDATE, not a household name in the top echelon of thoroughbred competition, but RON is working himself up from the “bottom” of the equine hierarchy as well.  Like ‘DUDE, ‘RON was on running down the Derby trail once-upon-a-time.  He’s a better older horse than he was at three, aging gracefully like fine wine.

While GAME ON DUDE and RON THE GREEK face eight other probable starters, they will rightfully dominate the wagering on past class.  They have earned their positions and the respect from their fans will show up at the windows.  Here’s the run down.

**THE ARTICLE CAN BE READ IN IT'S ENTIRETY AT THOROFAN'S HANDICAPPER'S CORNER**

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THE 13TH SHAM STAKES (G.III, 1 mile, $100,000) – Baffert stable mates try to exorcise their trainer's O’Neill Derby/Preakness demons.

It’s usually not a fair fight, pitting two against one.  “Pancho” Martin seemingly did it in the 1973 Wood Memorial when ANGLE LIGHT won, SHAM finished second, and SECRETARIAT checked in a disappointing third.  Martin won the battle but history shows his colt lost the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown war to a battleship of a race horse.  Little did he know about Secretariat’s abcess and temperature.  He found out what a healthy SECRETARIAT could do in three track record performances en route to an emphatic Triple Crown win, the likes of which we may never see again.

The point of this history lesson is that one great horse proved himself better than an entire foal crop once upon a time, but was beaten on a given day.

I’m not saying GOLDENCENTS is SECRETARIAT by any stretch of the imagination.  However, there are races when the best horse is simply the best horse no matter how many of one barn line up to defeat him/her.  The game is fickle and a good horse, training well, can still lose depending on the race circumstance and variables horseplayers don’t know about.  In this case, Bob Baffert has a colt drawn outside, MANDADO, who could apply enough pressure to soften up GOLDENCENTS like Martin thought he did with ANGLE LIGHT back in ‘73.  If GOLDENCENTS isn’t SECRETARIAT, then wouldn’t it be possible he can be defeated at odds-on?

Once upon a time Doug O’Neill worked his stock slow and infrequently.  That was a time when he had horses that were not as hearty as the stock he’s enjoyed the last few years and with an I’LL HAVE ANOTHER exclamation point last year.  With GOLDENCENTS alone, O’Neill could enjoy another eventful Derby trail win or lose today.  Here’s the rundown on the small field of six.

1 – DEN’S LEGACY (Westrock Stables LLC, Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez)

This son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO ran a solid third behind undefeated VIOLENCE in the G.I Cash Call Futurity after winning the G.III Generous on turf.  The colt’s past performances suggest he’s better on turf or synthetic.  In his lone dirt try, the G.I Frontrunner, he finished up the track.  However, the Cash Call could give a hint that Den’s Legacy is in much better form currently than the last time he tried dirt. 

Consider his Betfair Hollywood Park debut Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) was 62 and he improved to 69 three starts later in his Frontrunner defeat.  In the Cash Call DEN’S LEGACY earned a 85 BSF and if he improved the same seven points this time, he’d be right with GOLDENCENTS at the finish.  The bullet 4f work on the 28^th shows he’s on his toes and he gets second billing.

2 – GOLDENCENTS (W. C. Racing or Kenney or R A P, Doug O’Neill, Kevin Krigger)

No question that the son of INTO MISCHIEF is talented.  Anyone who saw his debut put GOLDENCENTS into their stable mailbox going forward.  He sprinted like he could run a route of ground.  Off that effort he was pitched into the G.I Champagne.  GOLDENCENTS did the dirty work for should-be Juvenile Male Champion SHANGHAI BOBBY before tiring late for second. 

Last out he went wire-to-wire in the Delta Jackpot.  GOLDENCENTS is working a hole in the wind with two successive bullets at 6f, topped by a 1:10¹H on the 27^th.  Long, strong works indicate the connections are expecting big things around two turns from him today and going forward.

3 – GREELEY AWESOME (Haymes, Master, or Veranatti, O’Neill, Mario Gutierrez)

It’s hard to envision him staying in the race with his stable mate, a prohibitive favorite, incorporating the same style.  The son of MR. GREELEY competed in the maiden claiming ranks his last three efforts, finally winning last out as the 3-5 favorite.  He once lost to today’s foes DIRTY SWAGG by five lengths and was almost seven lengths back of DRY SUMMER in his debut, both efforts came on Polytrack.  His lone dirt try was decent, a second one length back in a MCl30k in decent time (1:10³) but earned a paltry 64 BSF.  Strictly for fans of I’LL HAVE ANOTHER with Gutierrez up for O’NEILL.

4 – DRY SUMMER (Brett or House, Jeff Mullins, Joe Talamo)

The son of ANY GIVEN SATURDAY is out of a STREET CRY mare so dirt wouldn’t seem to be a problem, right?  However, four of his five career starts came on synthetic or turf and it’s been win or off the board.  In his lone dirt try, the G.I Frontrunner, he was distanced by over 20 lengths.  That prompted a shot in the BC Juvenile Turf.  Off the brief break since, he’s being given another chance to swim or sink on dirt.  The works seem okay but nowhere near the speed that accomplished dirt runner GOLDENCENTS shows on the page.  It’s usually wise to forgive one bad effort, but this ridgeling’s inconsistent form suggests he’s a young horse that’s being bothered by an undescended testicle.  I don’t know what kind of effort to expect from him and until he’s gelded or shows more consistency, DRY SUMMER won’t see any of my moolah.

5 – DIRTY SWAGG (M.K. Cho Stables LLC, Myung Kwon Cho, Tyler Baze)

The Mr. Cho homebred has been as inconsistent as his G.I winning sister LOVE THEWAY YOU ARE, 7-1-0-1 including a stakes placing in the Real Quiet S.  The only one of the top three to hit the board in the Cash Call Futurity was FURY KAPCORI and this ridgeling really regressed that day off a huge new top BSF (86).  Its been eight weeks since the effort but, like DRY SUMMER and DEN’S LEGACY, he’ll be trying to reverse very terrible G.I Frontrunner form (7^th beaten 14 ¾ lengths).  Like DRY SUMMER, his inconsistency may lead to him being gelded in an effort to find more consistent form and reach his potential.  Until then, it’s hard to endorse him.

6 – MANDADO (Kaleem Shah, Baffert, Martin Garcia)

The second of the Baffert runners broke his maiden last out on December 13 across town on Cushion Track going a route for the first time.  The son of BLUEGRASS CAT cost Shah $360k in March as a 2y.o. in training but it too until mid-August for him to debut.  He pressed/faded slightly that day and then wasn’t seen until late October when blinkers were removed and he showed high speed to set/press to the stretch call before fading to 3^rd beaten 6 lengths by stable mate SHAKIN IT UP.  He was part of a key maiden race two back when DISTINCTIVE PASSION, a repeat winner, wired the field and runner-up BELVIN returned to break maiden nicely on dirt last week.  Breeding suggests the trip won’t be an issue as he meets more proven juveniles like GOLDENCENTS.  In fact, he could be the thorn to the favorite’s win chances as he’s drawn outside that speedy rival.  His BSF was 89 in the win and that came third start in the cycle, first time routing.  A repeat of that effort is expected and it may result in a severe pace meltdown the final furlong.  There is a slight chance that GOLDENCENTS won’t run his race.  Considering his improvement, MANDADO could be the x-factor to keep going if something is awry with the favorite.

THE MOST LIKELY WINNER

GOLDENCENTS is a G.III winner, G.I placed, and acquitted himself well vs. the likely Champion Juvenile SHANGHAI BOBBY.  He was tiring last out after being pressed to an opening ¼ in :22³.  That will likely be the case again today.  However, of all the entrants he’s been given the stiffest a.m. preparations.  He looks fit enough to handle a severe pace battle and keep on going.  It’s no slam dunk, but it’s definitely hard to look past the heavy favorite for win honors.

THE VALUE

Both of the Bob Baffert trainees fit the bill.  DEN’S LEGACY is G.I placed, like the favorite, and won the G.III generous two back.  On a class to class comparison, there’s not much between this Baffert runner and the favorite.  His conqueror VIOLENCE is on or near the top of many people’s top Derby hopeful lists.  He was 5^th in his lone dirt try which will be the reason to expect a hint of value from this colt.  I can forgive that effort as the track was severely speed-favoring during the autumn meeting here and Quinonez was forced to keep this stretch runner closer to the pace for a winning try.

MANDADO will be lapped on GOLDENCENTS from the start.  Considering how impressive he was breaking maiden around two turns and his connections, there is a slight chance he’ll put away GOLDENCENTS and clear before his stable mate can wind up his late run.  It’s the time of year horses can really improve over more proven types.

As I mentioned before, I think DEN’S LEGACY may be hinting he’s a much different colt in his second try on dirt.  Also, the main track has been playing very fair of late, the best horses given the race shape seemed to win the majority of races.  All this adds up to a thrilling stretch duel in which I envision MANDADO blinking first, GOLDENCENTS trying to clear, and DEN’S LEGACY trying to take advantage in deep stretch.  When the chips are down, I’ll always be comfortable with my money on Baffert.

WAGERING

My suggestion is to tread lightly given the presence of GOLDENCENTS.  I have yet to look at the races around the Sham Stakes, but using DEN’S LEGACY to win at 5-2 or more and as a key trying to extract value in the horizontal exotics may be the way I’ll go.  I fully expect GOLDENCENTS to run a representative race, as he has in each career start to date, and will depress any vertical exotics severely unless you can envision him running out of the money in a six horse field.  MANDADO would only be a “flyer” win wager in a bigger field.  However, in a six horse field, with his connections, the likely off-odds simply won’t be enough.  He may be worthy of a light “Pick-N” inclusion if you have a more definite opinion of races before and after simply because good horses like GOLDENCENTS and stretch running second choices like DEN’S LEGACY are beaten on dirt by seemingly inferior, but speed horses on a given day.  I can’t envision GOLDENCENTS finishing less than second and he’s the most likely winner if they run this race 60/100 times, his 4/5 morning line.  I’ll save horizontally with him if I can find enough value before and after this race.

Good luck and enjoy the racing!!!