The 2013 Santa Anita Handicap features first-ever match up of past Big ‘Cap winners.
It’s
hard to believe that GAME ON DUDE
and RON THE GREEK are the first two
prior winners of the G.I Santa Anita Handicap to race against each other in the
history of the race. The race, once
known as the “Hundred-Grander” because of the gaudy purse for Great Depression
era America, is regaining national prominence as the definitive winter G.I race
for 4y.o.’s and up on the main track as the country claws out of a severe economic
recession in 2013.
Triple
Crown winner AFFIRMED, “the best
horse to look through a bridle” SPECTACULAR
BID, and venerable gelding JOHN
HENRY are nationally known winners of the Big ‘Cap. However, 1940 victor SEABISCUIT is probably the best known of them all. The Charles Howard-owned gelding, trained by
Tom Smith, is romantically remembered as a beacon of hope in what was a
downtrodden society. SEABISCUIT overcame
an oppressive early career to win a match race against WAR ADMIRAL, finish
second twice in the Big ‘Cap during the Great Depression, and won the “Hundred-Grander”
at age seven after a year off and recovering from what was believed to be a
career-ending injury.
Fast
forward to 2013 and a pair of 6y.o.’s, a rare occurrence in G.I racing over the
last few decades, are trying to win the race for the second time. Ironically, both are blue collar horses like
SEABISCUIT was. People identify with them
because they race year in and year out and have reached prominence from
relative obscurity. GAME ON DUDE was purchased privately at three for the Derby trail
and beyond, but wasn’t up to the task. He’s
been gelded some time ago, has now won multiple G.I races earning over $3.2
million and will race as long as he’s sound.
His story sounds sort of like a human going to work, climbing the ladder
for many years, with an eye to retirement.
RON THE GREEK is from the stallion
FULL MANDATE, not a household name in the top echelon of thoroughbred
competition, but RON is working himself up from the “bottom” of the equine hierarchy
as well. Like ‘DUDE, ‘RON was on running
down the Derby trail once-upon-a-time.
He’s a better older horse than he was at three, aging gracefully like
fine wine.
While
GAME ON DUDE and RON THE GREEK face eight other probable starters, they will
rightfully dominate the wagering on past class.
They have earned their positions and the respect from their fans will
show up at the windows. Here’s the run
down.
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It’s
usually not a fair fight, pitting two against one.“Pancho”
Martin seemingly did it in the 1973 Wood Memorial when ANGLE LIGHT won, SHAM
finished second, and SECRETARIAT
checked in a disappointing third.Martin
won the battle but history shows his colt lost the Kentucky Derby and Triple
Crown war to a battleship of a race horse.Little did he know about Secretariat’s abcess and temperature.He found out what a healthy SECRETARIAT could
do in three track record performances en route to an emphatic Triple Crown win,
the likes of which we may never see again.
The
point of this history lesson is that one great horse proved himself better than
an entire foal crop once upon a time, but was beaten on a given day.
I’m
not saying GOLDENCENTS is SECRETARIAT by any stretch of the imagination.However, there are races when the best horse
is simply the best horse no matter how many of one barn line up to defeat
him/her.The game is fickle and a good
horse, training well, can still lose depending on the race circumstance and
variables horseplayers don’t know about.In this case, Bob Baffert has a colt drawn outside, MANDADO, who could
apply enough pressure to soften up GOLDENCENTS like Martin thought he did with
ANGLE LIGHT back in ‘73.If GOLDENCENTS
isn’t SECRETARIAT, then wouldn’t it be possible he can be defeated at odds-on?
Once
upon a time Doug O’Neill worked his stock slow and infrequently.That was a time when he had horses that were
not as hearty as the stock he’s enjoyed the last few years and with an I’LL
HAVE ANOTHER exclamation point last year.With GOLDENCENTS alone, O’Neill could enjoy another eventful Derby trail
win or lose today.Here’s the rundown on
the small field of six.
This
son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO ran a solid third behind undefeated VIOLENCE in the G.I
Cash Call Futurity after winning the G.III Generous on turf.The colt’s past performances suggest he’s
better on turf or synthetic.In his lone
dirt try, the G.I Frontrunner, he finished up the track.However, the Cash Call could give a hint that
Den’s Legacy is in much better form currently than the last time he tried
dirt.
Consider
his Betfair Hollywood Park debut Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) was 62 and he
improved to 69 three starts later in his Frontrunner defeat.In the Cash Call DEN’S LEGACY earned a 85 BSF
and if he improved the same seven points this time, he’d be right with
GOLDENCENTS at the finish.The bullet 4f
work on the 28th shows he’s on his toes and he gets second billing.
2 – GOLDENCENTS
(W. C. Racing or Kenney or R A P, Doug O’Neill, Kevin Krigger)
No
question that the son of INTO MISCHIEF is talented.Anyone who saw his debut put GOLDENCENTS into
their stable mailbox going forward.He
sprinted like he could run a route of ground.Off that effort he was pitched into the G.I Champagne.GOLDENCENTS did the dirty work for should-be
Juvenile Male Champion SHANGHAI BOBBY before tiring late for second.
Last
out he went wire-to-wire in the Delta Jackpot.GOLDENCENTS is working a hole in the wind with two successive bullets at
6f, topped by a 1:101H on the 27th.Long, strong works indicate the connections
are expecting big things around two turns from him today and going forward.
3 – GREELEY AWESOME
(Haymes, Master, or Veranatti, O’Neill, Mario Gutierrez)
It’s
hard to envision him staying in the race with his stable mate, a prohibitive
favorite, incorporating the same style.The son of MR. GREELEY competed in the maiden claiming ranks his last
three efforts, finally winning last out as the 3-5 favorite.He once lost to today’s foes DIRTY SWAGG by
five lengths and was almost seven lengths back of DRY SUMMER in his debut, both
efforts came on Polytrack.His lone dirt
try was decent, a second one length back in a MCl30k in decent time (1:103)
but earned a paltry 64 BSF.Strictly for
fans of I’LL HAVE ANOTHER with Gutierrez up for O’NEILL.
4 – DRY SUMMER
(Brett or House, Jeff Mullins, Joe Talamo)
The
son of ANY GIVEN SATURDAY is out of a STREET CRY mare so dirt wouldn’t seem to
be a problem, right?However, four of
his five career starts came on synthetic or turf and it’s been win or off the
board.In his lone dirt try, the G.I
Frontrunner, he was distanced by over 20 lengths.That prompted a shot in the BC Juvenile Turf.Off the brief break since, he’s being given
another chance to swim or sink on dirt.The works seem okay but nowhere near the speed that accomplished dirt
runner GOLDENCENTS shows on the page.It’s usually wise to forgive one bad effort, but this ridgeling’s
inconsistent form suggests he’s a young horse that’s being bothered by an
undescended testicle.I don’t know what
kind of effort to expect from him and until he’s gelded or shows more
consistency, DRY SUMMER won’t see any of my moolah.
The
Mr. Cho homebred has been as inconsistent as his G.I winning sister LOVE THEWAY
YOU ARE, 7-1-0-1 including a stakes placing in the Real Quiet S.The only one of the top three to hit the
board in the Cash Call Futurity was FURY KAPCORI and this ridgeling really
regressed that day off a huge new top BSF (86).Its been eight weeks since the effort but, like DRY SUMMER and DEN’S
LEGACY, he’ll be trying to reverse very terrible G.I Frontrunner form (7th
beaten 14 ¾ lengths).Like DRY SUMMER,
his inconsistency may lead to him being gelded in an effort to find more
consistent form and reach his potential.Until then, it’s hard to endorse him.
6 – MANDADO
(Kaleem Shah, Baffert, Martin Garcia)
The
second of the Baffert runners broke his maiden last out on December 13 across
town on Cushion Track going a route for the first time.The son of BLUEGRASS CAT cost Shah $360k in
March as a 2y.o. in training but it too until mid-August for him to debut.He pressed/faded slightly that day and then
wasn’t seen until late October when blinkers were removed and he showed high
speed to set/press to the stretch call before fading to 3rd beaten 6
lengths by stable mate SHAKIN IT UP.He
was part of a key maiden race two back when DISTINCTIVE PASSION, a repeat
winner, wired the field and runner-up BELVIN returned to break maiden nicely on
dirt last week.Breeding suggests the
trip won’t be an issue as he meets more proven juveniles like GOLDENCENTS.In fact, he could be the thorn to the
favorite’s win chances as he’s drawn outside that speedy rival.His BSF was 89 in the win and that came third
start in the cycle, first time routing.A repeat of that effort is expected and it may result in a severe pace
meltdown the final furlong.There is a
slight chance that GOLDENCENTS won’t run his race.Considering his improvement, MANDADO could be
the x-factor to keep going if something is awry with the favorite.
THE MOST LIKELY
WINNER
GOLDENCENTS is a G.III
winner, G.I placed, and acquitted himself well vs. the likely Champion Juvenile
SHANGHAI BOBBY.He was tiring last out
after being pressed to an opening ¼ in :223.That will likely be the case again
today.However, of all the entrants he’s
been given the stiffest a.m. preparations.He looks fit enough to handle a severe pace battle and keep on going.It’s no slam dunk, but it’s definitely hard
to look past the heavy favorite for win honors.
THE VALUE
Both of the Bob
Baffert trainees fit the bill.DEN’S
LEGACY
is G.I placed, like the favorite, and won the G.III generous two back.On a class to class comparison, there’s not
much between this Baffert runner and the favorite.His conqueror VIOLENCE is on or near the top
of many people’s top Derby hopeful lists.He was 5th in his lone dirt try which will be the reason to
expect a hint of value from this colt.I
can forgive that effort as the track was severely speed-favoring during the
autumn meeting here and Quinonez was forced to keep this stretch runner closer
to the pace for a winning try.
MANDADO will be lapped
on GOLDENCENTS from the start.Considering how impressive he was breaking maiden around two turns and
his connections, there is a slight chance he’ll put away GOLDENCENTS and clear
before his stable mate can wind up his late run.It’s the time of year horses can really
improve over more proven types.
As
I mentioned before, I think DEN’S LEGACY may be hinting he’s a much different
colt in his second try on dirt.Also,
the main track has been playing very fair of late, the best horses given the
race shape seemed to win the majority of races.All this adds up to a thrilling stretch duel in which I envision MANDADO
blinking first, GOLDENCENTS trying to clear, and DEN’S LEGACY trying to take
advantage in deep stretch.When the
chips are down, I’ll always be comfortable with my money on Baffert.
WAGERING
My
suggestion is to tread lightly given the presence of GOLDENCENTS.I have yet to look at the races around the
Sham Stakes, but using DEN’S LEGACY
to win at 5-2 or more and as a key trying to extract value in the horizontal
exotics may be the way I’ll go.I fully
expect GOLDENCENTS to run a
representative race, as he has in each career start to date, and will depress
any vertical exotics severely unless you can envision him running out of the
money in a six horse field.MANDADO would only be a “flyer” win
wager in a bigger field.However, in a
six horse field, with his connections, the likely off-odds simply won’t be
enough.He may be worthy of a light
“Pick-N” inclusion if you have a more definite opinion of races before and
after simply because good horses like GOLDENCENTS and stretch running second
choices like DEN’S LEGACY are beaten on dirt by seemingly inferior, but speed
horses on a given day.I can’t envision
GOLDENCENTS finishing less than second and he’s the most likely winner if they
run this race 60/100 times, his 4/5 morning line.I’ll save horizontally with him if I can find
enough value before and after this race.