TACKLING THE TAKARAZUKA KINEN: IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM, JOIN ‘EM

A DAY TRYING TO BEAT HEAVY FAVORITES RACHEL ALEXANDRA AND ZENYATTA ENDS IN SELECTING ODDS-ON DEEP SKY

Fans of (11) DEEP SKY have been waiting for his coming out party. Despite winning the Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun), he has not yet earned his Jpn-G.1 win. It was supposed to be the Japan Cup (Jpn-G.1) where he was the 2-1 favorite in a 17 horse field. He defeated the horse that seemed his main competition. He outran VODKA, but there was 40-1 longshot SCREEN HERO who’d opened up enough of a cushion to hold DEEP SKY off.

His ’09 debut in a Jpn-G.2 was also disappointing to his backers who had made him the heavy 3-5 choice. That day DREAM JOURNEY could not be caught but DEEP SKY was 2 lengths clear of third. Clearly, there were bigger fish to fry.

Last out, he was inexplicably cut back to one mile and VODKA made a stirring stretch run to hold off the 4y.o. son of recently deceased AGNES TACHYON. Even players knew he would not be at his best trip in the Yasuda Kinen, sending him off the 5-2 second choice.

What these 2009 efforts have done is hone this striking chestnut to concert pitch. He will be more forwardly placed in the Takarazuka Kinen which will have him in contact with more tactical runners. From there he will use his natural stamina to gain his first Jpn-G.1 win. As I write this at just over 23 minutes to post, DEEP SKY is being bet to 3/5 favoritism and I would be surprised to see him float up from there.

So, is there any value to be had under him?

(14) COMPANY finished 4th in the Yasuda Kinen at 19-1 and defeated DREAM JOURNEY and ADMIRE FUJI three races back in a Jpn-G.2.

(4) ADMIRE FUJI is due to make a big impact at this level…time’s running out on this 7y.o. but if his PP’s are to be believed, he seems to be closing the gap on the favorite finishing only 2 lengths back in the Jpn-G.2 two back but beaten almost 5 in the Tenno Sho Autumn (Jpn-G.1) in November.

Those are pricier alternatives in a wide open race under DEEP SKY.