Friday, March 26, 2010

KENTUCKY OAKS NOTEBOOK: Fair Grounds Oaks

‘Seeking’ the right filly at a price.

There are times when a filly can overcome one or more apparent disadvantages to win an important race. PLEASANT HOME was such a filly; she won her only G.1 race defeating eventual champion ASHADO in the 2005 BC Distaff in a massive 30-1 upset. I believe that (3) SEEKING THE TITLE can become a more recent example in today’s Fair Grounds Oaks, a race that could be the beginning of a huge stakes weekend for jockey KENT DESORMEAUX.



The daughter of SEEKING THE GOLD, also the sire of the aforementioned PLEASANT HOME, is bred to become the best filly of her generation. She absolutely has the genes to defeat more experienced graded stakes winners JODY SLEW, QUIET TEMPER, and AILALEA in addition to seven other talented fillies seeking to earn a berth in the Kentucky Oaks on April 30.

SEEKING THE TITLE is the first foal out of unraced TITLE SEEKER, the product of Kentucky Derby winner MONARCHOS and career undefeated Hall of Fame inductee/former broodmare of the year PERSONAL ENSIGN. ‘TITLE had an eventful debut, yet made up big ground down the lane and passed many classmates at 6 furlongs. She was in mid-pack going into the far turn but James Graham was forced to check slightly when fillies to her inside and outside put the squeeze on SEEKING THE TITLE. The pair was shuffled back to 2nd-last but the filly bravely ran on. Her running line in the Bris PP’s is 9 by 6 ½, 11 by 16, 7 by 9 ½, 5 by 6. Alas, she could muster only a 5th place finish as a 22-1 outsider but could have finished at least 3rd with a clear trip.



In start #2, SEEKING THE TITLE was well-supported (5-1) and didn’t disappoint her growing legion of fans. She powered away from next-out winner BRICKYARD HELEN en route to a final margin of 6 ½ lengths, avenging a debut defeat to that rival by nearly nine lengths!



The Fair Grounds Oaks will be her third career start, considered by many as a strong angle to produce a horse’s “A” game. No time like her 10-1 morning line to prove it!

Here’s the link to the Fair Grounds Oaks past performances. How do you see it?

2 comments:

The_Knight_Sky said...

Seeking the Title could be any kind. She's got a nice cozy post #3 and meets a field of fillies that may have already displayed their very best.

Her tractability will come in handy for Mr. Desormeax. Expecting further improvement at a price which will allow for exacta backwheels and a tri-as-a-show.

Amateurcapper said...

T_K_S,

Thanks for chiming in.

Please explain the wagering strategy. Do you mean a standard win bet, bet the usual for place in a "saver" exacta w/'TITLE on the bottom, then use 'TITLE keyed in the three hole in the tri? If that's right, who to use w/ her?

I'm not enamored with this field. Short price on AILALEA w/ poor recent form, fitness questions, and a horrible post (same post concern for DROSSELMEYER on Sat.); JODY SLEW was caste in her stall and body sore, was questionable to run until yesterday but if she runs will get action due to positive race shape for her style; QUIET TEMPER needs to gun from rail to get position in a race filled with lots of pace, negative race shape for her.

Maybe SHEZACRAZYGIRL @ 15-1 who's undefeated on fast dirt w/ P. Val, SHEER BEAUTY @ 15-1 who's already a SW and w/ Graham will rate/finish?

Wager construction is clearly not my strong suit (some would say handicapping isn't either) so I usually stay w/ the simple straight bets...especially in a race that has more questions than usual from where I sit. Hence, the price pick.