Wednesday, April 21, 2010

KENTUCKY DERBY NOTEBOOK: CONTENDER PROFILE – ENDORSEMENT

WinStar Farm, who skipped the Lexington S. with DROSSELMEYER, gives the Sunland Derby winner their “endorsement” as a Kentucky Derby contender; there is tremendous depth of the breeding/racing operation created by Bill & Susan Casner and Elliott Walden.

The G.3 Sunland Derby looked very competitive going in. Last year’s 4th place finisher, MINE THAT BIRD, went on to win the Kentucky Derby - presented by Yum! brands. When the New Mexico track’s dust had cleared on March 28, 2010, ENDORSEMENT, not AMERICAN LION, RULE or SUPER SAVER, was the WinStar Kentucky Derby contender on the lips of ardent Derby Trail enthusiasts and horseplayers. The winner crossed the wire 1:48.46 after the bell rung, the fastest winning time for the race since it was extended to 9 furlongs in 2005. The 11-1 fourth choice ran down CONVEYANCE, a loose-on-the-lead, previously undefeated, multiple G.3-winning Bob Baffert trainee who’s also earned his way into the Derby starting gate.

While the son of DISTORTED HUMOR did not run a personal internal fraction as fast as ICE BOX did in the Florida Derby (click here for more on ICE BOX), I consider ENDORSEMENT’s third quarter mile fraction in :23.67 just as impressive considering the race situation. CONVEYANCE had slowed the pace down in the second ¼ mile (:24.33) after asserting himself as the alpha-speed through an opening ¼ in :23.71. Martin Garcia attempted to put the race away with a decisive third ¼ and CONVEYANCE responded gamely with a speedy :23.87 fraction.

Instead of extending the lead, CONVEYANCE and Garcia found the gap narrowed. The “double move” strategy had worked to sap the late energy of second and third choices NACHO FRIEND and TEMPTED TO TAPIT, who would finish 5th and 3rd, respectively. Surprisingly to Garcia and Baffert, it was recent Fair Grounds maiden special weight winner ENDORSEMENT, not CONVEYANCE, who was full of run. Robby Albarado had yet to move on the well-bred chestnut colt while Garcia had the 3-5 favorite in a drive on the turn.

ENDORSEMENT hit the lead at the 1/8 pole with yet another sub-:24 fraction and, as Trevor Denman would say, “it’s only a matter of how far” as the advantage was extended to three lengths at the wire. Trainer Shannon Ritter had her colt supremely prepared for the biggest race of his life, which qualified him for the biggest race of any three-year-old’s life on the first Saturday in May.

ENDORSEMENT’s fastest internal ½ mile fraction of :47.54 was the fastest ½ mile increment of any entrant in the field. It was imbedded in his personal final 5 furlongs clocked in an impressive 1:00.12, the fastest traditional dirt finish at 1 1/8 miles during this prep season.



By comparison, Derby favorite ESKENDEREYA has two 9 furlong races this year with his final 5 furlongs clocked in 1:00.56 (Wood Memorial) and 1:00.75 (Fountain of Youth). ESKENDEREYA’s fastest internal fractions in the Wood (:48.32) and FOY (:48.12) indicate his final five furlong times were aided by chasing relatively slow fractions. The pace in the Derby figures to be hot and heavy, which will force John Velazquez to use ESKENDEREYA early or take the chestnut colt farther back than he’d ever been on the dirt while chasing the fastest fractions he’s faced.

On past performance, ENDORSEMENT is equally as vulnerable as ESKENDEREYA considering their similar running styles and their expected positions close to the projected fast pace in the Derby. However, with just four career starts ENDORSEMENT is far from pigeon-holed as being a confirmed presser. His edge over ESKENDEREYA is that he’s successfully chased down a dyed-in-the-wool speed horse in CONVEYANCE, who ran relatively fast fractions and finished in 1:49.06 posting the third-fastest time in the six years it’s been run at 1 1/8 miles.

ENDORSEMENT will have five weeks between races, the same break that led to BARBARO’s impressive Kentucky Derby win. While it is a major stretch to mention ENDORSEMENT in the same breath with the ill-fated ’06 Derby winner, my point is that the break is ample time to recover from that career-best effort. There’s no reason to believe that he can’t at least repeat that effort at Churchill Downs. Will that be strong enough to contend for the win? Maybe, maybe not…but I will note that he feels strong enough at this stage of development for Robby Albarado to choose him over G.1 winner and top three money earning 3y.o. NOBLE’S PROMISE.

One thing is certain, win or lose in the Kentucky Derby, the Sunland Derby gave us the ‘endorsement’ that WinStar Farm will be a breeding/racing operation to respect along the Derby trail and beyond for many years to come!

6 comments:

railrunner said...

I haven't really analyzed Endorsement seriously yet, but you bring up some great points as always and you broke down his performance in the Sunland Derby beautifully.

One of the most significant things you brought up was the fact that Robby Albarado chose him over Noble’s Promise as his Derby mount. I suppose that could have something to do with the possibility of Noble’s Promise skipping the Derby, but still that’s saying a lot about how he feels about Endorsement.

I don’t think Endorsement is in the same league as Lookin At Lucky, Eskendereya, Sidney’s Candy or even Jackson Bend right now so I won’t be choosing him to win the Derby. I do think he is a very good choice for 4th and possibly a 3rd place finish. I know many people don’t think Jackson Bend can get the 1 ¼ miles and still finish in the top three like I do (and we may never know if he doesn’t make it in) but I loved his five furlong work this morning. What did you think about both his and Lookin At Lucky’s works?

Tony Bada Bing said...

He's in my top five for the simple fact that he may be peakking at just the right time. Coming off a 100 plus Beyer means another big performance awaits or maybe a bounce. Endorsement is worth included on potential alone...

Amateurcapper said...

Brian,

The Sunland Derby wasn't the strongest on my rudimentary pace figures, but he really improved leaps and bounds from what he'd done breaking his maiden. Normally I'd think "bounce", but with the six weeks there was plenty of time to get rid of the lactic acid/strain from competition and Ritter had three weeks to bring him back up to speed. You're probably right, better for 3rd or 4th.

Hadn't seen the videos of the works, but I heard that LUCKY worked like a Derby winner would work this week. Now it's up to Baffert to keep him happy and our hero has a huge shot to be wearing the roses.

RE: JACKSON BEND...his breeding, like NOBLE'S PROMISE, says "NO" for the win but even sprint breeding can finish in-the-money. CLOSING ARGUMENT ran 2nd @ 70-1 in 2005 so can't knock that price for the minor awards.

I'll get back later tonight after I review the videos.

Amateurcapper said...

Tony,

You are preaching to the choir, my friend. Is there a chance he'll be underlaid on the wiseguy angle?

sacl said...

Having analyzed all the Derby entries, Endorsement, along with Ice Box, look like very possible winners to me. Beyer, dosage profile, perfomance figures, final 3/8ths primarily. The other top faves can be eliminated ( except for Esk. who I think peaked in the Wood.) Having said that I dont know how well these horses can do on a possible wet track. All do well on dirt though. Thanks so much to the person who broke down this race !

Amateurcapper said...

sacl,

Thanks for stopping by. It's great fun to share information with you and other horse racing enthusiasts.

If you have the time, I also have a post on ICE BOX I'd like to read your comments about (http://amateurcapper.blogspot.com/2010/04/kentucky-derby-notebook-contender.html). Did you see he blazed 4f in :46 2/5 this a.m. at CD?!?!?! Certainly must be one of the top works thus far.

Don't discount LOOKIN AT LUCKY...he's had some tough trips that sort of hid his true ability. I believe he'd have run at least five lengths faster in the Rebel win...how would people be considering him if he'd have stopped the clock in 1:42 flat and won off by five? Also, factor in a tough trip SA Derby where he finished very well from a virtual standstill after getting sideswiped, while the 1-2 finishers completed the race unimpeded. His 1:12 work yesterday was the bomb!

LUCKY-ICE BOX-ENDORSEMENT are the three most compelling to me, in order of preference.

Stop by again!