Sunday, July 18, 2010

INTERNATIONAL NOTEBOOK: Dance Smartly (G2.)

ROGER ATTFIELD has the favorite but his other entrant holds the value.

(3) AVE makes her 3rd start in the form cycle, an angle that is so well known it is overplayed. She also is coming off the typical “Euro bounce” for followers of Beyer Speed Figures, regressing 10 points. The former Ire-G.3 winner hasn’t won in two graded starts, coming from behind in the Gallorette (G.3) at Pimlico and not finding enough after tracking the pace in the New York (G.2) at Belmont Park. She’s only won 30% of her starts so there is some question whether she’s game enough at the graded stakes level. Is 29 days enough home cooking at Woodbine to have her at peak performance? There is a bullet 5f around the dogs to indicate she’s sitting on “go”. The deserving choice, but no slam dunk. The saying goes, if you’re only afraid of one horse that’s not enough reason to duck the race.

Trainer ROGER ATTFIELD follows that advice and enters (6) MEKONG MELODY. He is repeating a winning pattern from last year when he brought her back from a late-September to early July layoff to win an allowance in fast time on this course. After so-so results on Polytrack, she won a stakes on “yielding” ground in her ’09 finale at much farther than her best trip. It must have sapped her as she’s been off for nearly the same amount of time prior to her ’09 debut. The work tab is steady, she’s fresh, and brings an enticing 8-1 morning line. There is a possibility that she will get first run on the two likely favorites and steal away to an insurmountable lead.

(5) GYPSY’S WARNING is the other mare to fear. The Graham Motion trainee is coming off a narrow win in the Eatontown H. (G.3) over next-out winner MARAM. GYPSY’S WARNING was a multiple G.1 winner in her native South Africa and was made the favorite there in four or her last five starts, three were in G.1’s. Motion has given her lots of time off in an attempt to replay her winning effort at Monmouth Park. Her style is made to order for the sweeping Woodbine turf course.

Great Sunday to all!

2 comments:

Steve Munday said...

AmCap,
MEKONG MELODY paid a juicy $13.90 to win and you nailed the Roger Attfield exacta. I only wish I had bet the race myself.

Good job 'capping again.

railrunner said...

Nice job Rob!!