It’s late in the year. If juveniles were precocious enough to compete and win at the highest levels, we’d have seen them debut in the summer. They’re the contenders in the five Breeders’ Cup events for 2y.o.’s, three on dirt and two on turf.
The nine race card at Churchill Downs should be viewed two ways. First of all, as a way of finding winners and keying price horses today. Secondly, the card should be viewed as a way of finding a few nuggets that run well, win or lose. Depending on their performances, objective review will determine whether they’re worthy to watch through the 2012 season.
As an exercise, I’ll dive in to the analysis of a few races.
1st
The horses that have raced have already proven themselves talented or not. (8) NEXT RIGHT THING debuted @ 9-2 and ran a winning race, succumbing by a nose to eventual G.III winner SHE DIGS ME from the Steve Asmussen barn, finishing seven clear of 3rd. In start #2, he stretched out to 6f in the Mountaineer Juvenile in which he went to post as the heavy 4-5 favorite. Unfortunately he stumbled at the start but gamely recovered to fight on for 2nd. Gary Simms wisely gave him time to recover from the physical insult of the break and mental insult of losing for the first time. By SHARP HUMOR out of a BOSTON HARBOR mare, NEXT RIGHT THING could develop into the next great sprinter. However, that starts with a win at short odds today.
There are two first time starters to watch: (9) BATTLE HARDENED for Michael Tabor and Mrs. John Magnier, trainer Eddie Kenneally, and (10) UNBRIDLED’S NOTE for Mike McCarty, Steve Asmussen, and Julien Leparoux. The former, by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, has a right to be precocious at any distance but at his stage of development I’d prefer to see a nice even run to be 2nd or 3rd if NEXT RIGHT THING daylights the field. The latter is by UNBRIDLED’S SONG whose offspring can act on any surface. With two gate works from the last three, and a 4f 11th best of 48 breeze on the 25th, expect this one to show speed if he’s any quality.
The TIZNOW offspring, (3) TWO OH TWO, is out of CHEROKEE RUN so he could show speed from the inside draw. It’s hard to ignore anything from the Mike Maker barn these days and it will be especially enticing to consider him with all those bullet breezes at the CD Training Center. My experience with offspring of the only two-time BC Classic winner is that they can be very fast at two, even win a race like this and even the G.II Kentucky Jockey Club a la TIZ WONDERFUL, but they’re not going to be very sturdy as a 3y.o. if they’re seen at all. TIZNOW was best late in his 3y.o. season and I’d prefer to see this one run well and develop for the summer Derby season like PRAYER FOR RELIEF did this year.
2nd
(5) KICKER, by HARD SPUN o/o TENGA, could be an absolute steal today at 15-1. She’s a ½ to G.I turf winner STARTAC and I’ve always felt HARD SPUN would produce at terrific turf miler despite his brilliant results on dirt as a 3y.o. Ronny Werner is very good with juveniles (16%) but is 0-for-10 with debuting horses at a mile or more. I might have been enticed to play this one heavier to place/show than win if I were home, but I’ll be content on the day to see this one run well and follow her in the coming months/year.
(14) FIREHOUSE RED is from the barn of Larry Jones and already ran well on the lawn at Delaware Park in her debut, finishing a late arriving 3rd. She goes first-Lasix if she can draw in and Jones is a very good 26% with second starters. Of note is a disturbing gap in works from October 8 to 25, so enthusiasm is tempered as she moves from the “lesser” Mid-Atlantic region to first-class Kentucky racing.
3rd
(1) GEMOLOGIST, a debut winner at Turfway Park sprinting 6f, drew the rail and will take these plodding 2y.o.’s as far as he can. Considering his breeding, by TIZNOW o/o a MR. PROSPECTOR mare, this is the sort of winner at two that could get the pulse racing for WinStar Farms, LLC, heading into the 2012 season.
Among the best of play-against horses, not only for today but down the line in my opinion, is the route juvenile debut winner. (2) SPACE RACE wired a big field of Delaware Park maidens in his debut but if he were really that speedy, he’d have had the seasoning sprinting. He's already lost his second race, but many will forgive that effort on sythetic considering the return to dirt. He could develop into a FIRST DUDE type, but to push him to compete with the best today and through his 3y.o. season may be his undoing. (7) FIRE ALARM was a late-running route winner at Presque Isle Downs in September but hasn’t been seen since. Getting the kick back with that style will really clue us into the Derby chances of the son of Derby winner FUSAICHI PEGASUS, o/o a TIZNOW mare. If he looms up and runs well, even wins a race like this, FIRE ALARM may be sounding all kinds of Triple Crown trail bells over at the Bret Calhoun barn for based Gary and Mary West.
Well, that’s all I have time for. It’s off to the L.A. Zoo for Halloween doings and visiting the ZENYATTA horse at the refurbished carousel which was part of a generous donation to the zoo by Jerry and Ann Moss. More likable and giving people in horse racing, or life in general, are hard to find.Good luck today if you’re playing and with the Breeders’ Cup preparations!
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