AMATEURCAPPER

RACEHORSES…No matter experience or class, their spirit captivates the soul

2012-01-13T02:29:00.000-08:00

At Clocker’s Corner in October, a big Jim Cassidy-trained horse caught my amateur eye and captured my heart.

It was late on a gloriously clear and warm October morning.

Most of the work was complete and I started to make my way to the car from my finish line perch. Earlier I’d seen G.I winners THE FACTOR, EUROEARS, and COIL for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. They are three of the most attractive horses on the grounds and was convinced there was nothing more to see.

Then he appeared, standing at mid-stretch like he owned historic Santa Anita Park. I was sure he was an older horse because of his size and relaxed manner. The signature red saddlecloth with a yellow border and two Redskins-stlyle feathers told me it was trainer Jim Cassidy’s horse.

By the time I got near, horse and exercise rider were being ponied toward the finish line. I fumbled to extract the camera from the case.

A striking bay with a flowing mane and a beautiful head, he traveled a two minute lick with his ears pricked. His eye conveyed that he understood his purpose. He moved without wasted motion and his stride showed pent up energy this exercise was not meant to unleash.

I asked the female exercise rider with an Australian flag on her helmet what his name was. She didn’t know, only that she knew he had never run and was a “baby.”

Could that be right, a juvenile racehorse with size and focus that belied his age?

I looked for Mr. Cassidy to confirm his age and discover his name. Clocker’s Corner was nearly empty and the venerable trainer was nowhere in sight.

A week later I greeted the affable Mr. Cassidy and inquired about the colt. Unsure which of the many horses in his barn it was, he kindly called the exercise rider.

After receiving a description, I was informed that indeed he was a two-year-old colt bred in California. Cassidy confirmed what I thought, that the young racehorse appeared to have some quality but he’d yet to work officially.

I thanked him for being so kind and wished him luck for the remainder of the Oak Tree meeting.

I’m proud to introduce you to FLYING JIB, a son of the DANZIG stallion VRONSKY out of a SEA HERO dam.

Whether he succeeds or fails remains to be seen. What isn’t a mystery is how attached I’ve become after just one encounter.

He’s working like he’s close to his first race. Stay tuned!

Back to work...Sham Stakes!

2012-01-06T15:59:00.000-08:00

Sham Stakes - A sextet auditions for the Kentucky Derby trail on Santa Anita Park dirt

$$$$$ Go to Thorofan Handicapper's Corner for the full article, links and video included! $$$$$

The 2011 Sham Stakes was won wire-to-wire by TAPIZAR for Steve Asmussen in a brilliant display of speed. Unfortunately, that kind of effort so early ihttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifn the Kentucky Derby trail season was too much for his developing legs. TAPIZAR hasn’t placed in, let alone won, a graded stakes since. The show horse, ANTHONY’S CROSS, came back to score in the Robert B. Lewis (G.2) but hasn’t been on any stakes radar since also-ran status in the Santa Anita Derby (G.1).

As a predictor of future success in Triple Crown races a January prep like the Sham Stakes, shortened this year to one mile, doesn’t project well in my opinion to a race that is four months down the line at 10 furlongs. We’ll have a terrific miler in the making if the winner goes “flag fall to that’s all.” If the winner comes from off the pace with a dawdling final fraction because of a suicidal speed duel, don’t expect him to be more than a useful also-ran with an occasional win going forward.

This post will endeavor to uncover the most likely winner and best value runner of this race without consideration of the Derby.

Projected Order of Finish:

1. HANDSOME MIKE
2. SECRET CIRCLE
3. HIERRO

$$$$$ Go to Thorofan Handicapper's Corner for the full article, links and video included! $$$$$

Crown Michael Dickinson the Master of Synthetic Tracks

2011-11-20T22:01:00.001-08:00

In 2008 Santa Anita's version of Cushion Track failed, how long will Southern California have to suffer through another year of one-purpose Cushion track at Hollywood Park?

On Sunday Hollywood Park cancelled the final three races when jockeys refused to ride due to unsafe main track condition. The backside reportedly had uneven spots that made conditions hazardous to equines and humans. It wasn't the first time that heavy rain forced the Inglewood, CA race track to cancel racing. Last December 19, all but two of the final day of races at the autumn stand were not run when the backstretch did not drain.

Cushion Track, without a test in heavy weather, was given the Santa Anita contract. Interestingly, there is no homepage for the product. Whether it was an inferior product to Hollywood Park's version or the drainage system underneath was not adequate, Santa Anita lost 11 consecutive days at the winter meeting of 2008. The brain trust sought out alternatives; the end result was a Pro-ride/Cushion Track hybrid and then a Pro-ride only surface. Both eventually failed and necessitated relaxation of the CHRB synthetic mandate. In the Fall of 2010, Santa Anita was allowed to install a dirt main track. The Oak Tree Racing Association meeting was forced to Hollywood Park in 2010 and did not host a meeting this year when Frank Stronach and Santa Anita were granted the not-for-profit group's racing dates.

No Problems at Golden Gate Fields

Meanwhile, at Golden Gate Fields on Sunday, an entire nine race card went off on Tapeta Footings without a hitch. The heavy rain forced all three turf races onto the main track. There was only one scratch.

Had Michael Dickinson been chosen as the mastermind to replace the failed Cushion Track at Santa Anita in the summer of 2008, for better or worse the synthetic era of main tracks in California would still be going strong. His Tapeta Footings creation was installed at Golden Gate Fields and Presque Isle Downs, as well as being the main track of choice for Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum's Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.

According to Bill Finley's synthetic track expose Ground Control, Preque Isle Downs had no suspensory ligament or tendon injuries in 2008 among the top 20 trainers through a personal survey by Dickinson. That same year there was .07 breakdown rate, purported to have been one of the lowest in the country. In 2009 there was one tendon injury from the top 10 trainers surveyed at Presque Isle.

Oh, by the way, the highway dirt track installed at Santa Anita and responsible for lightning times last winter has already had to be renovated. Reportedly the clay/sand mixture had to be changed. How the altered main track will handle the usual winter rain is another question that horsemen and horseplayers will need to ponder this season.

I find it amusing how dirt main tracks are impervious to the scrutiny and negative publicity that synthetic main tracks endure. It seems to me that a poorly engineered main track surface is a poorly engineered surface, no matter the sand and clay percentages or whatever synthetic materials are used.

Too bad the geniuses are always labeled as crazy or eccentric until history proves people like Michael Dickinson brilliant.

Oh, by the way, the last three Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winners came out of the Preque Isle Downs Masters (G.II): 2011 Musical Romance (1st), 2010 Dubai Majesty (2nd), and 2009 Informed Decision (1st). Interestingly, the last two winners scored on the synthetic/dirt angle at very nice prices.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT – Winning Breeders’ Cup Connections are key

2011-11-05T07:29:00.000-07:00

HISTORY

The Sentient Jet Sprint goes as race five on the Churchill Downs card, the third of nine 2011 Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships races on Day 2, Saturday, November 5. The defending champion BIG DRAMA, despite a truncated season because of injury, will defend his title as part of a two headed attack from Florida-based David Fawkes. 2010 runner-up HAMAZING DESTINY returns to avenge his loss for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, the trainer with the most wins in Breeders’ Cup history (18) for an astounding $20 million in purses. Lukas has won the Sprint twice, in 1988 with GULCH and in 2002 with ORIENTATE.

The inaugural Sprint was won by EILLO in wire-to-wire fashion. However, leading from the start is not the only way to win. In a race that routinely features a :21 and change opening fraction, one misstep from a speed horse can fell the chances of the fastest horse in the race. HOUSEBUSTER, coming off a win in the G.I Vosburgh, was dispatched as the 2-5 favorite in what was supposed to be a championship-crowning run at Churchill Downs in 1988. Unfortunately, he bobbled at the start and faded to 9th after recovering to press splits of :21 and 44 2/5 while SHEIKH ALBADOU rallied for a convincing longshot win.

Bob Baffert, aided by MIDNIGHT LUTE’s back-to-back Sprint wins in 2007 and 2008, owns the record for most wins in this race for trainers with three. He’ll be represented by the ultra-quick EUROEARS.

The rider with the most Sprint wins is Corey Nakatani with four, including three consecutive wins from 1996-1998. Most importantly for him is that he’s won two Sprints on the Churchill Downs main track, most recently in 2006 with THOR’S ECHO from off the pace which will assist him with this year’s mount JACKSON BEND.

Rarely has the race been contested with less than 10 horses, but it will occur for the fourth time this year. In 1996, the only time it happened on a dirt surface, SMILE outgamed PINE TREE LANE in a match race from the start at Santa Anita. Speedball GROOVY could not make the top coming off a win in the Ancient Title, then an ungraded race.

Will the 2011 Sentient Jet Sprint be a merry-go-round? Will the race fall apart for the stretch runners? What kind of dirt surface will present? Fast or off? Biased or not?

KEY ANGLES

The winner of the Sprint in 2011 will need a clean break to show he’s the fastest horse in the world on dirt. The most important horse at the start is EUROEARS for Baffert. The 7y.o. was eliminated at the start as the 2-1 second choice in the G.I Vosburgh, the first of two disappointing Sprint division prep results for the Hall of Fame trainer. The other loss was THE FACTOR fading to 4th in the G.I Ancient Title that has relegated him to the Dirt Mile.

EUROEARS drew the rail which means one instruction from Baffert to Rafael Bejarano: quarter horse from the rail. If he breaks cleanly and the rail is fair, he may be gone. His presence on the front end, along with BIG DRAMA, GIANT RYAN, and FORCE FREEZE will enhance the chances of a select stretch runner.

Perhaps the most important factor is what the condition of the track will be. The forecast is free of precipitation for the two Breeders’ Cup days, but that could also mean the clay-based track could become cuppy on Saturday. The sandhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gify loam has a tendency to become loose on top, breaking away from horses that really need to get a good grip at the start to fly to the lead or to dig in for a furious stretch run. For this reason, past success on the Churchill Downs strip is an important factor. Last year HAMAZING DESTINY parlayed solid summer form under the twin spires, including a second in a stakes to eventual G.I winner HERE COMES BEN, into a second at huge odds behind BIG DRAMA.

***Read the rest at Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner***

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT – How did they get here?

2011-11-04T09:32:00.000-07:00

HISTORY

This race will be renewed for just the 5th time in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships and most likely will crown the winner of the 2011 Eclipse Award for Champion Female Sprinter. Of the previous four runnings, three Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winners also took home the bronze trophy honoring Eclihttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifpse, an undefeated 18th century race horse and sire.

A relatively new event run at a specialist distance of 7 furlongs, fillies and mares are rarely pointed to this elongated sprint race. The traditional American sprint is 6 furlongs, the trip for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint which has been run since the inaugural Breeders’ Cup in 1984. Brilliant females like VERY SUBTLE, SAFELY KEPT, and DESERT STORMER have competed in and won the BC Sprint. However, that event has been dominated by males over the last 15 runnings which may partly explain why the Filly & Mare Sprint and a separate Eclipse Award were created.

Contested at 6 furlongs in 2007, it has been 7 panels the last three years. There have been various main track conditions, from muddy Monmouth Park to synthetic at Santa Anita in consecutive years, and now for the second straight year it is dirt at Churchill Downs. Last year, DUBAI MAJESTY parlayed wins in the G.III Winning Colors under the twin spires during the summer with a final prep win in the G.II Thoroughbred of America on the Keeneland Polytrack into a BC Filly & Mare Sprint win.

Hindsight, being always 20/20, makes her look far more likeable than the $8.60-1 than she was dispatched at. I felt little consolation when my picks EVENING JEWEL, $8.40-1, and SWITCH, $7.90-1, finished 3rd and 2nd, respectively. I’ll endeavor not to make the same mistake this year.

KEY ANGLES

The winner of this year’s Filly & Mare Sprint must combine speed and stamina at a demanding distance that I liken to humans sprinting 400 meters in the Olympics. It takes a blend of fast and slow twitch muscle fibers to work in a finely tuned rhythm for an entrant to be propelled to the winner’s circle. There are two fillies that have shown the trip could be to their advantage: SWITCH and TURBULENT DESCENT.

The other consideration is a win or solid effort on the quirky Churchill Downs main track. Described by expert handicapper Steve Davidowitz as a clay-based dirt course that can be difficult to handle, the chief of GradeOneRacing.com stated that the cuppy nature can be cured by a http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifdose of water that Thursday’s predicted rain can afford. This year, there are no favorable impressions from previous races at the track to glean an edge from. Obviously, SWITCH must be respected as a filly that tried her heart out at middle distances this year against the likes of HAVRE DE GRACE and BLIND LUCK, finished 2nd in this race last year after a game 2nd to the great ZENYATTA, and has prepped for more speed coming off a closing 3rd in the aforementioned Thoroughbred of America.

***To read the rest of the post, please click here and visit Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner where the article originally appeared. I outline a filly that looks vulnerable, one that is the most likely winner, and another who is the value in the race.***

CHURCHILL DOWNS JUVENILE SHOWCASE

2011-10-30T10:48:00.000-07:00

The specialized event is more likely to produce late blooming 3y.o.’s than legitimate Triple Crown or Kentucky Oaks contenders.

It’s late in the year. If juveniles were precocious enough to compete and win at the highest levels, we’d have seen them debut in the summer. They’re the contenders in the five Breeders’ Cup events for 2y.o.’s, three on dirt and two on turf.

The nine race card at Churchill Downs should be viewed two ways. First of all, as a way of finding winners and keying price horses today. Secondly, the card should be viewed as a way of finding a few nuggets that run well, win or lose. Depending on their performances, objective review will determine whether they’re worthy to watch through the 2012 season.

As an exercise, I’ll dive in to the analysis of a few races.

1st
The horses that have raced have already proven themselves talented or not. (8) NEXT RIGHT THING debuted @ 9-2 and ran a winning race, succumbing by a nose to eventual G.III winner SHE DIGS ME from the Steve Asmussen barn, finishing seven clear of 3rd. In start #2, he stretched out to 6f in the Mountaineer Juvenile in which he went to post as the heavy 4-5 favorite. Unfortunately he stumbled at the start but gamely recovered to fight on for 2nd. Gary Simms wisely gave him time to recover from the physical insult of the break and mental insult of losing for the first time. By SHARP HUMOR out of a BOSTON HARBOR mare, NEXT RIGHT THING could develop into the next great sprinter. However, that starts with a win at short odds today.

There are two first time starters to watch: (9) BATTLE HARDENED for Michael Tabor and Mrs. John Magnier, trainer Eddie Kenneally, and (10) UNBRIDLED’S NOTE for Mike McCarty, Steve Asmussen, and Julien Leparoux. The former, by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, has a right to be precocious at any distance but at his stage of development I’d prefer to see a nice even run to be 2nd or 3rd if NEXT RIGHT THING daylights the field. The latter is by UNBRIDLED’S SONG whose offspring can act on any surface. With two gate works from the last three, and a 4f 11th best of 48 breeze on the 25th, expect this one to show speed if he’s any quality.

The TIZNOW offspring, (3) TWO OH TWO, is out of CHEROKEE RUN so he could show speed from the inside draw. It’s hard to ignore anything from the Mike Maker barn these days and it will be especially enticing to consider him with all those bullet breezes at the CD Training Center. My experience with offspring of the only two-time BC Classic winner is that they can be very fast at two, even win a race like this and even the G.II Kentucky Jockey Club a la TIZ WONDERFUL, but they’re not going to be very sturdy as a 3y.o. if they’re seen at all. TIZNOW was best late in his 3y.o. season and I’d prefer to see this one run well and develop for the summer Derby season like PRAYER FOR RELIEF did this year.

2nd

(5) KICKER, by HARD SPUN o/o TENGA, could be an absolute steal today at 15-1. She’s a ½ to G.I turf winner STARTAC and I’ve always felt HARD SPUN would produce at terrific turf miler despite his brilliant results on dirt as a 3y.o. Ronny Werner is very good with juveniles (16%) but is 0-for-10 with debuting horses at a mile or more. I might have been enticed to play this one heavier to place/show than win if I were home, but I’ll be content on the day to see this one run well and follow her in the coming months/year.

(14) FIREHOUSE RED is from the barn of Larry Jones and already ran well on the lawn at Delaware Park in her debut, finishing a late arriving 3rd. She goes first-Lasix if she can draw in and Jones is a very good 26% with second starters. Of note is a disturbing gap in works from October 8 to 25, so enthusiasm is tempered as she moves from the “lesser” Mid-Atlantic region to first-class Kentucky racing.

3rd
(1) GEMOLOGIST, a debut winner at Turfway Park sprinting 6f, drew the rail and will take these plodding 2y.o.’s as far as he can. Considering his breeding, by TIZNOW o/o a MR. PROSPECTOR mare, this is the sort of winner at two that could get the pulse racing for WinStar Farms, LLC, heading into the 2012 season.

Among the best of play-against horses, not only for today but down the line in my opinion, is the route juvenile debut winner. (2) SPACE RACE wired a big field of Delaware Park maidens in his debut but if he were really that speedy, he’d have had the seasoning sprinting. He's already lost his second race, but many will forgive that effort on sythetic considering the return to dirt. He could develop into a FIRST DUDE type, but to push him to compete with the best today and through his 3y.o. season may be his undoing. (7) FIRE ALARM was a late-running route winner at Presque Isle Downs in September but hasn’t been seen since. Getting the kick back with that style will really clue us into the Derby chances of the son of Derby winner FUSAICHI PEGASUS, o/o a TIZNOW mare. If he looms up and runs well, even wins a race like this, FIRE ALARM may be sounding all kinds of Triple Crown trail bells over at the Bret Calhoun barn for based Gary and Mary West.

Well, that’s all I have time for. It’s off to the L.A. Zoo for Halloween doings and visiting the ZENYATTA horse at the refurbished carousel which was part of a generous donation to the zoo by Jerry and Ann Moss. More likable and giving people in horse racing, or life in general, are hard to find.

Good luck today if you’re playing and with the Breeders’ Cup preparations!

The NYSRWB tries to make Dutrow an example.

2011-10-17T23:21:00.000-07:00

The Rick Dutrow, Jr. stay of suspension on Monday, October 17, 2011 by a New York State judge lessens the sting of the New York State Racing and Wagering Board’s penalty against the maligned trainer.

I once wrote that I was tired of all the negativity in the sport and made a promise to myself that I wouldn’t dwell on the dark side. There’s so much good…the Triple Crown, the emergence of female racehorses like HAVRE DE GRACE, GOLDIKOVA, RACHEL ALEXANDRA, and ZENYATTA as equals to the best male thoroughbreds, the state showcase days, and the upcoming Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.

Because I respect the game, I’ve waited to formulate an opinion on the Rick Dutrow, Jr. suspension in New York. I wanted to avoid the knee-jerk and arbitrary decisions that seem to have been handed down too often in recent memory by state regulatory boards. I read articles, not all related to Dutrow, and some as many as six years ago. I was saddened by the disrespect for the history of the game. I was angered by the arrogance through public words by the privately unfortunate/troubled men and women of racing.

Last week, the New York State Racing and Wagering Board (NYSRWB) handed down a 10 year suspension and $50,000 fine to Dutrow. Such a penalty, particularly the 10 years, if enforced to the letter of a suspension, would be the equivalent of the death penalty to Dutrow’s career. Rick Goodell, assistant counsel at the New York State Racing and wagering board. The state racing and wagering board said a stay “would cause more harm to the public and to pari-mutuel racing than benefit (Dutrow).”

What the NYSRWB has attempted to do is make Dutrow the face of everything that is wrong with the sport in New York. Instead of giving each lapse in moral turpitude a separate legal consequence, the NYSRWB prefers to choose an arbitrary number as the qualified punishment for Dutrow’s past transgressions. He has outwardly done and said things that cast him as the villain in the eyes of many, including me. However, there is no way that he deserves this length of penalty.

Consider this if the NYSWRB will is realized:

Dutrow will be the sacrificial lamb for every trainer’s medication violations.

His face will be what the public sees, instead of other trainers who’ve allowed a horse to race despite reservations about their physical condition.

His voice will be the sound associated with outward snubbing of the individual state regulatory boards’ power during television and radio interviews.

When appealing the unfairness of the regulatory boards’ consequences, Rick Dutrow, Jr. will be the name fans remember most. His silhouette is the one we’ll see in front of the state judge minimizing his untoward actions, instead of the many trainers that have done the same.

I’m not surprised to read that stewards at Santa Anita Park, employees of the California Horse Racing Board which once mandated synthetic main tracks without performing diligent research, agreed to uphold Dutrow’s suspension at the Arcadia, CA oval. That's a brave stance, especially considering Dutrow hasn’t shipped many horses to Santa Anita over the last 10 years.

Earlier this year, the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission outlined six regulations Dutrow violated under section 810 of the Kentucky Revised Statutes as reasons to withhold licensure in the Commonwealth. None were specific to an occurrence and the decision was handed down just days before he was to start AMEN HALLELUJAH in the April 14 Vinery Madison and COURT VISION in the April 15 Makers Mark Mile.

Last week NYSRWB Chairman John Sabini said, “Let this be a lesson to other people in the business.”

Are there any questions that this is personal, a case featuring Dutrow as the “Wicked Warlock” in this New York witch hunt?

Saturday Stakes Study 2

2011-10-08T11:02:00.000-07:00

Saturday

Keeneland

G3 Woodford - 3:27 EST – HAVELOCK
Some will consider this a wonderful betting race. I find it completely inscrutable. I want a horse that can stay close to the ample speed in the huge field, avoid getting put in a box behind tiring speed, and avoid going too wide to lose chance at this sharp sprint distance. Oh, I forgot to mention, I also want that strong stretch kick so vital on turf. I just can’t find one who meets all the criteria, hence the wide open nature of the race.
I’m going with a price (obviously), HAVELOCK. He’s proven on the course, is clearly a one turn runner although he was 5-1 in the G.II Kentucky Cup, and with two summer wins (including the G.II Play the King) he’s a much better animal than he was when last seen at Keeneland winning an allowance race at this trip. He’s the one who comes closest to meeting my stringent requirements.

G2 Thoroughbred Club Of America - 4:01 EST – SWITCH
The John Sadler trainee was given multiple chances to prove BC Ladies’ Classic worthy and has come up short each time. What SWITCH’s last four races, all at the G.I level, have done is prove she’s a G.I sprinter/miler. In three of those efforts she was leading at the stretch call before succumbing in deep stretch. Joel Rosario travels to Keeneland for this filly. They drew ideally in the 10 hole and anyone who saw her dual G.I wins at 7 furlongs last winter at Santa Anita knows she absolutely looms menacingly at the 6 furlongs of today’s race. This clearly is a means to the BC Filly & Mare Sprint but I won’t be enticed to play against her.

Belmont

G1 Jamaica Handicap - 4:13 EST – BRILLIANT SPEED
Charlotte Weber’s Live Oak Plantation homebred was a prompt winner of the G.III Saranac at Saratoga about a month ago. That race confirmed to me, and a slew of other devout Triple Crown followers, that BRLLIANT SPEED is a much better animal on turf or synthetic at this stage of his development. His last 1/8 in the Saranac went in :11 2/5 and I expect the son of DYNAFORMER to return to the winner’s circle.

Keeneland

G1 First Lady - 4:37 EST – TOGETHER
The Irish bred Aiden O’Brien trainee lays over this field in terms of class and is an enticing 7-2 on the morning line. Although she’s gone winless in 2011, all but one of her races has been at the G.I level including three runner-up efforts. TOGETHER also acquitted herself well vs. older G.I females in her last two. In a field of American raced fillies and mares who take turns beating each other, the choice to go with the stranger is obvious to me. By comparison the other 3y.o. filly, THEYSKENS’ THEORY at 4-1 morning line, recently 2nd to WINTER MEMORIES in the G.I Garden City, was 7 ½ lengths behind TOGETHER in the G.I Coronation Stakes in June.

Belmont

G1 Frizette - 4:45 EST – MISS NETTA
All six of these fillies won their last starts from on or pressing the lead. Either the quickest of the quick wins this or one of them rates and inhales the field. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the entrants won. Even the Hoosier- by-way-of-Ellis Park shipper, (4) HOLIDAY SOIREE has a chance to wire the field coming off a 1:08 3/5 allowance win. It wouldn’t be the first time a speed horse at long odds was left alone on the lead and wired ‘em. However, I think she just heats up the pace forcing the favorites’ hands too early.
I’m going with the potential of (2) MISS NETTA to adore the added distance for Kiaran McLaughlin. She’s a daughter of STREET SENSE that could not have broken her maiden at first asking any easier. The runner-up has already come back to win, suggesting that the race had more quality than the paltry 74 BSF indicates. Her sire won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after a speed/fade 3rd in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. If Rajiv can ride MISS NETTA instead of the whole field, the 8-1 morning line could look like a gift.
I’m not enamored with the brief freshening of MY MISS AURELIA and STOPSHOPPINGMARIA, both coming off big BSF’s and their lifetime tops.

Keeneland

G1 Breeders' Futurity - 5:13 EST – MAJESTIC CITY
This race boils down to opinions on regional results of juvenile races over the summer. I am of the opinion that the 2y.o.’s on the west coast are stronger than the crew that is assembled at Keeneland for this event. That compels me to select MAJESTIC CITY for Peter Miller and Garrett Gomez.
He rated very kindly in the G.I Del Mar Futurity and was finishing right with CREATIVE CAUSE and DRILL despite drifting out and being disqualified from 2nd to 3rd. He wasn’t backing up at the time and was actually out-finishing CREATIVE CAUSE when he made contact. Since his daylight wire jobs in career starts one and two, Miller has made a concerted effort to get the son of CITY ZIP to rate. His G.III Hollywood Juvenile win was ultra-impressive from off the pace vs. two Bob Baffert trainees who’d won impressively at the summer Hollywood Park stand. He looked beaten when shuffled back to 3rd at the stretch call but summoned his reserve impressively.
His last effort proved he belongs with the best juveniles out west and that’s good enough for me. As with many of these, the Polytrack and two turns are questions that will determine whether MAJESTIC CITY goes to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or new Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint.

Belmont

G1 Champagne - 5:18 EST – UNION RAGS
The G.II Saratoga Special winner earned a field-best 95 BSF in that stakes win, making him undefeated in two starts. There are some that may point out that UNION RAGS won clear on a sloppy sealed track and is likely going to have a fast track while attracting the lion’s share of the wagering. I cannot dispute that fact, but there is reason to believe the son of DIXIE UNION will extend his unbeaten string.
In just two starts, UNION RAGS has won at two different tracks on two different dirt main tracks. He also changed his style suggesting to me that he can be placed anywhere Javier Castellano pleases and still put in a winning run.
Let’s get it on!

Santa Anita

G1 Ancient Title - 5:37 EST – THE FACTOR
Ladies and Gentleman, this colt is full of himself. That means the rest of the field is at his mercy. The only way THE FACTOR gets defeated is if he breaks slow (a la EUROEARS last weekend) and SQUARE EDDIE finds speed and class on the turf/dirt angle. Unfortunately for the field, he and Martin Garcia drew the one hole which means heat, serious heat, from flagfall to the wire.
Yesterday morning the exercise rider had to literally stand in the irons to keep him from running off. Let’s all remember, Baffert cut his teeth in quarter horse racing and won his first Breeders’ Cup race in the Sprint with THIRTY SLEWS (ironically, also a gray/roan). All, including his good-looking stable mate IRREFUTABLE, are running for second money.

Keeneland

G1 Turf Mile - 5:45 EST – GIO PONTI
He’s repeating the same pattern that saw him win this race last year and go on to finish 2nd to GOLDIKOVA in the BC Mile. I believe this guy’s always been most effective at 9 furlongs. Unfortunately, in the East there aren’t many of those races carded which has forced Clement’s hand to stretch him out instead of running in miles all year long. It’s hard to argue with is choice considering GIO PONTI’s stellar record of 21 of 27 in the exacta including 11 wins and a third.
There are only G.I notations in the races showing which makes him a class stand out to me. Only one horse I considered worthy of picking over him was DANCE AND DANCE, recently a troubled 6th in the Woodbine Mile, a race he could absolutely have won with a clear trip. However, I am loathe to pick him because of the dreaded “Euro-bounce” that I find afflicts all but the very best of turf runners (CAPE BLANCO, STACELITA, etc.). I don’t consider this Irish-bred gelding that quality.

Hawthorne

G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap - 6:46 EST – MISTER MARDI GRAS
This race is begging to be won from off the pace but I’m not enamored with the usual suspects (GIANT OAK, or even HEADACHE). I’m siding with the “other” Chris Block trainee MISTER MARDI GRAS, fresh off a G.III win on Polytrack at Arlington Park. His form has been solid on turf/synthetic all year long but the race that has me wondering if he’s been on the wrong surface is his 2011 debut. It was a win in an off-turf allowance on “fast” dirt at Fair Grounds, earning a 93 BSF which was a slight new top over the figures he earned as a 3y.o. on grass. Last year he competed vs. the best U.S. turf runners and wasn’t disgraced. His October 2 breeze, 4th best of 56 at Hawthorne for the distance, seals his longshot appeal.

Santa Anita

G2 Oak Tree Mile - 8:10 EST – MR. COMMONS

Super Saturday Synopsis

2011-10-01T03:28:00.001-07:00

In chronological order, here's my thoughts on an important day of racing around the country.

Belmont

G1 Flower Bowl - 2:47 EST - STACELITA
With the turf sure to have some give in it, STACELITA should be able to impose her class as she did on "yielding" going in the G.I Beverly D. at Arlington Park. She was thought so highly of as a 3y.o. that she was sent off at 10-1 in the '09 Arc. Also on view for 2010 in her PP's are a 2nd @ 9-2 to the great MIDDAY in July, a G.I win at Deauville off @ 4-5, and a beaten-favorite 2nd in the G.I Prix de l'Opera on "soft" going.
DELUXE, another offspring of the blue hen HASILI, hasn't fared as well on "soft" going on two occasions. I'll wait on her until she gets a "firm" course.
ARUNA wasn't the quality of the top two in France but has been ultra consistent in the U.S., compiliing a 6-4-2-0 record including two graded stakes.
EMERALD BEECH is on a four race win streak, including the G.III Glens Falls last out on "soft" going. This is a huge step up, but at least her affinity for a course with give in it is known at what will surely be in excess of 10-1.

G1 Turf Classic - 3:22 EST - WINCHESTER
WINCHESTER is the defending champion, coming off a win in the G.I Sword Dancer @ Saratoga. Once again he won't be respected according to his accomplishments, thanks in large part to the presence of CAPE BLANCO. I give WINCHESTER extra credit because of the ability he showed on a soggy turf course in this race last year.
CAPE BLANCO, despite his G.I Irish Derby win last year, is best suited to 1 1/4 miles and a firmer turf. I understand he won on "yielding" last out in the Arlington Million, but that was a 1/4 mile shorter on grass that was likely closer to "good" considering the day's big race results.
MISSION APPROVED will take them as far as he can. A winner of the G.I Manhattan earlier this year on "yielding" turf, I expect him to run his "A" race at a huge price off the freshening. Unfortunately for him, like the others, is they're a cut below the top two.

G1 Vosburgh - 3:57 EST - EUROEARS
I've seen this grand chestnut in the a.m. the last two weeks and he looks magnificent. His exercise rider says he's in fine fettle and that's enough for me. EUROEARS is easily the fastest horse in the race. Rain or shine, I don't see any of these quality sprinters catching him.
TRAPPE SHOT may be best suited to a slow paced 6 furlongs to a one turn mile. The fractions he'll be chasing saps his late energy today.

G2 Kelso Handicap - 4:22 EST - UNCLE MO
He was the best 2y.o., undefeated and ran a mile on this track in 1:34 2/5. Despite battling health issues most of the year, UNCLE MO signaled he's back on track with a huge G.I King's Bishop 2nd. He's trained forwardly since and could author a signature race in his ultimate Breeders' Cup prep. Which division he fits best, I'm not sure...perhaps he's his own division!

Too late in the a.m. for more discussion, here's the rest:

Philadelphia

G2 Cotillion - 4:58 EST - IT'S TRICKY

Belmont

G1 Beldame - 5:06 EST - HAVRE DE GRACE

Hoosier

G2 Indiana Oaks - 5:19 EST - A Z WARRIOR

Belmont

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup - 5:46 EST - RODMAN

Santa Anita

G1 Norfolk - 6:10 EST - DRILL

Hoosier

G2 Indiana Derby - 6:15 EST - WILBURN

Santa Anita

G1 Lady's Secret - 6:43 EST - ZAZU

G1 Goodwood - 7:16 EST - GAME ON DUDE

G1 Yellow Ribbon - 8:48 EST - HARMONIOUS

Good luck to you all!

Equine Excellence - Week 4

2011-09-28T00:13:00.001-07:00

Please take a moment to consider the graded stakes winners worthy of "Equine Excellence" mention from last weekend, before diving into one of the most important stakes weekends of the year.

Last week, WINTER MEMORIES was unanimously selected as the horse demonstrating "Equine Excellence" in graded stakes races. That was a no-brainer, right?

It's entirely possible that there will be another landslide winner from the weekend of September 24-25. You be the judge. Vote now!!!

Sunday Morning Baffert Stars

2011-09-22T01:07:00.000-07:00

Vote in the Equine Excellence - Week 3 poll. Leave me a comment to let me know how your choice compelled you to vote.

Sunday, September 18, was a who's who of gallopers from the barn of Bob Baffert. His trainees always look the part.

Enjoy!

COIL

EUROEARS

PRAYER FOR RELIEF

PLUM PRETTY

THE FACTOR

C J RUSSELL

Equine Excellence - Week 3

2011-09-19T23:36:00.000-07:00

Vote for the graded stakes winner that stood above the rest for the weekend of September 17-18.

Last week's narrow winner was DRILL, featured the header, for his win in the G.I Del Mar Futurity. I'd expect him to be pointed to the G.I Norfolk S. October 1 at the Santa Anita Autumn meeting where he'll tackle two turns and dirt for the first time as the likely favorite.

The past weekend provided many thrilling finishes for you to choose from. Did the action on the turf at Woodbine catch your eye? Or, were one of two fillies racing on the Belmont Park grass worthy of your vote?

Leave me a comment to discuss the thrills your choice provided. Thanks in advance for participating!

WINTER MEMORIES WARMING COOL RECOLLECTIONS OF ZENYATTA

2011-09-18T00:42:00.000-07:00

While they raced on different surfaces and couldn't look more dissimilar, WINTER MEMORIES and ZENYATTA have given thoroughbred racing goosebumps.

There are some blog/twitter friends who don't agree with me, others that understand and share my need to compare great performances. I believe the electricity of the stretch run of the G.I Garden City on Saturday was just as powerful as the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic, if not on the same magnificent stage.

Enjoy the replay of both and let me know what you think.

Equine Excellence - Week of September 7-11

2011-09-12T21:47:00.001-07:00

I'd like to know which graded stakes performance you feel is worthy of the second weekly Equine Excellence Award from last weekend? A special circumstance this week is that the Wednesday, September 7 Del Mar Futurity is included.

Drop me a message, let me know what you thought of the races and how they affect their divisions going forward!

A Time to Remember

2011-09-11T10:03:00.000-07:00

September 11, a day that lives in infamy in my lifetime.

Today is a day that should become a National Day of Rememberance. It should be tantamount to Independence Day, a day that symbolizes an awakening for the United States of America.

The tragic terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers in New York should never have happened and should never be forgotten. Above is a remnant of the North Tower rubble, on display at the Ronald Reagan Library and Museum in Simi Valley, CA, salvaged as an iron clad reminder of how American life is not, and never was, free of extremist attack.

If we, as a country, don't awaken to the possiblity that a future catastrophic event will occur at the hands of anti-American terrorists, then history will repeat.

I am disappointed that no national standard for public safety has emerged in the past 10 years. Non-uniform standards at major transportation sites should not be tolerated. What is allowed through the borders of an individual state, can have a profoundly negative effect on us all.

Reflect, remember...redouble vigilance in your personal and national safety.

Havre de Grace: Equine Excellence

2011-09-10T07:46:00.000-07:00

Congratulations to Rick Porter and Larry Jones; their 4y.o. filly wins Amateurcapper's First Weekly Equine Excellence Award

Here's what I wrote last weekend before the race:

Saratoga 10th - G1 Woodward - 5:45 EST – Classic Classic Grade: B.
Initially, I was all set to pick against HAVRE DE GRACE. She’s by no means a RACHEL ALEXANDRA (how many are?) so how can she defeat graded stakes winners FLAT OUT, RULE, GIANT OAK, or even MISSION IMPAZIBLE when RACHEL “the great” just lasted vs. more ordinary older males?

This year, (6)HAVRE DE GRACE successfully carried weight and will be in receipt of three pounds today because of the sex allowance. Her main competitors will be picking up from seven to nine pounds off their last efforts. FLAT OUT carried just 117 lb. when earning his last two, career-best Beyers and will tote a career high 126 lb. impost. HAVRE DE GRACE is actually dropping one pound from her last, 123 lb. Larry Jones has his filly legged up perfectly, a combination of speed and stamina works coming off a 1 ¼ mile defeat by a nose when she led at the 9 furlongs mark. She won’t be much to play, but I will be rooting strongly for her to beat up on the boys.

It's still a ways to the Breeders' Cup, but the daughter of Saint Liam has certainly thrown down the guantlet to BLIND LUCK and the boys in search of the Horse of the Year title.

Bob Baffert used $300k DRILL to drive home dominance in G.I Del Mar Futurity

2011-09-09T02:15:00.000-07:00

The Hall of Fame conditioner notched his ever-increasing record 10th win in the juvenile showcase with DRILL where the turf meets the surf; David Flores used a strong left hand which gave the stewards ‘CAUSE to disqualify his mount.

If this is what Bob Baffert does to his competitors when he doesn’t like the main track surface, imagine what his runners would accomplish if Del Mar ever jettisoned Polytrack in favor of dirt? No need to guess, from 1996 to 2002, he won a remarkable seven straight Del Mar Futuritys…all on dirt!

Here’s the list of his Del Mar Futurity winners:

2011 DRILL Martin Garcia
2009 LOOKIN AT LUCKY Garrett Gomez
2008 MIDSHIPMAN Tyler Baze
2002 ICECOLDBEERATREDS David Flores
2001 OFFICER Victor Espinoza
2000 FLAME THROWER Jerry Bailey
1999 FOREST CAMP David Flores
1998 WORLDLY MANNER Kent Desormeaux
1997 SOUVENIR COPY Chris McCarron
1996 SILVER CHARM Gary Stevens

Of the 10 scores, three colts went forward to be named champions in their careers (SILVER CHARM, MIDSHIPMAN, and LOOKIN AT LUCKY). Where will DRILL rank with the Baffert juveniles of the past? Two turns in the G.I Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita’s Autumn meeting should clarify his status among the best in his barn, determine if he’s tops at the SoCal tracks, and legitimize his contender status for the G.I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

DRILL got so much out of this race, it’s not difficult to argue that he was lengths better than his classmates on this day. He raced a close 4th most of the backstretch, allowed Martin Garcia to shuffle him back to 5th, leaving the turn many lengths in arrears, then rallied strongly in the middle of the track under another patented Garcia ride.

DRILL in his maiden win, 13Aug11.

CREATIVE CAUSE wasn’t the brilliant colt we’d seen in his first two starts, both wins that included a score in the G.II Best Pal Stakes earlier in the Del Mar meeting. The strength of those two wins made him the decisive 4-5 favorite. Racing in the clear for the first six furlongs, about the only excuse the son of GIANT’S CAUSEWAY had was that he was 3 wide on the turn.

MAJESTIC CITY created a severe bumping incident, lugging out badly in the final 50 yards while under stout left handed whipping from David Flores. If CREATIVE CAUSE was the dominant colt his odds suggested, he’d have driven clear of the incident. I consider his 2nd place finish a lucky event…he was on his way to third when the trouble happened.

MAJESTIC CITY ran his eyeballs out and created a rather vicious bumping incident in the shadow of the wire. If Flores’s assessment is true, that fatigue caused his mount to make a right hand turn under the left handed stick, MAJESTIC CITY is not a candidate to stretch out. However, if ever there was a 2y.o. made for the new Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, MAJESTIC CITY is the one.http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif

Type at ya’ soon!

P.S. If you have time and the inclination to vote, I’d love to know which Labor Day weekend performance was the top graded stakes run. Right now, it’s HAVRE DE GRACE in a landslide with 10 of the 14 votes.

Vote for the Graded Stakes Performance Worthy of the First Weekly “Equine Excellence” Award

2011-09-05T19:57:00.000-07:00

Amateurcapper blog will host a weekly poll and crown the race week’s top performer weekly from today until Breeders’ Cup (perhaps beyond!)

Every weekend we thoroughbred horseplayers, industry insiders, and enthusiasts marvel at the majestic equines that perform at our local racetracks and grace our video screens. I want to know, which graded stakes run had you marveling at the horse’s brilliance on the day, made you compare that runner to great racehorses of the past, and/or had you dreaming that you may have seen the second coming???

Vote once in the poll list to the right for the horse that got your blood pumping the fastest. Polling closes on Friday, 9/9/2011 @ 7:32 p.m.

Thanks in advance for participating!

Saturday Stakes Study – Homework, Quizzes, Grades for the Breeders’ Cup Finals

2011-09-03T09:08:00.000-07:00

Burning the midnight oil is a concept reserved for immersion in an area of study. That saying cannot be more appropriate for analysis of thoroughbred horse racing.

Here I am, after taking a nighttime nap/early night’s sleep, awake at 3:30 a.m. going through the graded stakes action that may impact the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships nine weeks hence. Weekends like this, as last weekend was, are forms of mid-terms in various subjects (divisions). Knowledge of what is happening month-in and month-out, similar to studying subjects daily and weekly while in school, makes preparation for the Breeders’ Cup “finals” less time consuming.

Thankfully, the G.I Del Mar Debutante analysis is done thanks to the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance involvement with Thorofan’s Handicapper's Corner. Let me know your thoughts on that race and the contents of today’s exercise before the action or after-the-fact. Learning does not end when the quizzes have been taken. The “answers” to the many graded stakes equine questions must be corrected if wrong and solidified if correct.

Let’s get to it; the races are presented in chronological order.

Saratoga 8th – G.I Personal Ensign - 4:39 EST – Ladies Classic Grade: D.
Unfortunately, this historic event is without the Ladies Classic division leaders BLIND LUCK, getting a freshening before the G.I Lady’s Secret, and HAVRE DE GRACE, her connections trying to “one-up” ‘LUCK by taking on the boys later today in the G.I Woodward. Even AWESOME MARIA, a winner of four graded stakes this year including the G.I Ogden Phipps, would have been a prohibitive favorite in this group.

What is left is a field more worthy of a G.3 level. When the morning line 2-1 is a 6y.o. mare that upset in the G.I Ruffian Invitational Handicap at 18-1, the race begs punters to search for an alternative. That was (2)ASK THE MOON’s lone stakes score in her printed PP’s, one race removed from being claimed for $75k, in her first start for Marty Wolfson. She staggered home the final 5f in 1:03 3/5 suggesting the extra 1/8 mile will be her undoing. Factor in that the win will cause her to carry six pounds more and her stamina is a serious question mark. If she wins, it will be without me on the wagon.

The two fillies she defeated, SUPER ESPRESSO and TIZ MIZ SUE, seemingly showed an inability to sustain their runs at well supported 3-1 and 4-1 chances, respectively. No horse in the field challenged 18-1 ASK THE MOON which put the ‘ESPRESSO and ‘SUE behind the eight ball on a track that was difficult to close on. Both figure to be much closer to ASK THE MOON throughout and those turn moves each made before flattening out, especially at the weights, will be doled out more effectively at 1 ¼ miles.

(6)TIZ MIZ SUE, just a neck behind SUPER ESPRESSO in the Ruffian but disqualified to 4th, is more likely to move forward considering she’s run just five times this year and is making the second start after a 50 day break from racing. Her 2nd to HAVRE DE GRACE at Delaware Park two back in the G.III Obeah Stakes, while not appreciated on the Beyer scale, absolutely qualifies her on class to win against this bunch. Her sire, TIZNOW, showed ample speed and grit at the classic trip to win back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classics and may pass that affinity on to his daughter. She runs just like her dam, a G.III winner rallying from mid-pack at 9 furlongs, hinting there’s super stamina on the bottom of TIZ MIZ SUE’s pedigree from granddamsire EASY GOER. She’s the tepid pick at a hint of a price.

(5)SUPER ESPRESSO, unlike TIZ MIZ SUE, has already won a graded stakes taking the G.III Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes on Preakness day. The 100 Beyer figure she earned is the field-best number on dirt. However, her speed figures are regressing while her odds have steadily decreased. Many will be on her considering Bobby Flay, Todd Pletcher, and Ramon Dominguez are the human team. If her recent runs are her usual and the big figure is a “giraffe,” it’s best to look for a better price.

(3)PACHATTACK is the X-factor making her dirt debut. She exits a G.I on turf but proved once again that she cannot handle ground with any kind of cut in it. That is compelling Gerard Butler to take a swing in this G.I with the daughter of PULPIT. Her supporters will point to her solid blowout over the track on September 1, but the pounding of dirt and eating kick-back in a race is a variable that other synthetic-to-dirt horses like INGLORIOUS couldn’t overcome.

(4)PROTESTING and (1)ACRONYM were both bred with G.I expectations by the Phipps Stable and Juddmonte Farms, respectively. In a race where there’s so many questions, including the distance, I would not be surprised to see either win.

Monmouth 9th – G.III Sapling - 4:53 EST – Juvenile Grade: D.
There are two factors important to me when dissecting juvenile sprint stakes: positive experience against winners, especially wins, and race shape.

In the 78th renewal of the Sapling, there are 11 entered but there is but one multiple winner. (10)SHE DIGS ME scored in the Tyro Stakes much easier than he broke his maiden in the prior race. The son of HENNY HUGHES, out of the VALID EXPECTATIONS mare STAGE SHOP, scored in “ridden out” fashion suggesting there’s more in the tank for this graded stakes effort. The Steve Asmussen barn has given him 41 days without a race after having three starts in nearly the same amount of time. I will project him to improve off his prior efforts. SHE DIGS ME can sit just off the ample speed, which includes stable mate VOODOO DADDY, and pounce at the 1/8 pole before holding off the deep closer.

(5)MANAGED ACCOUNT came out of a heat featuring a blazing early pace and could be the beneficiary of a pace meltdown as he was in his maiden-breaking debut. He’ll gallop around at his own pace and if the leaders come back, Carlos Marquez, Jr. will have the son of MALIBU MOON right there at the wire. It’s interesting to note that Terri Pompay takes off Carmouche, despite the win, in favor of a jock she clicks at 24% with.

Saratoga 9th - G1 Forego - 5:12 EST – Sprint Grade: B.
There’s a major question of how (2)SIDNEY’S CANDY will or won’t handle the track. In his sole dirt effort, he throttled the off-turf G.III Sir Beaufort, getting 6f in 1:08 2/5 en route to a mile in 1:33 3/5. We’ve seen far too many times this meeting that horses that love Saratoga tend to repeat that affinity. With ‘CANDY, the dirt workouts don’t necessarily scream that he’ll take to it. He’ll be pressured early (ESCROW KID), middle (REGAL RANSOM, HAMAZING DESTINY), and late (JACKSON BEND, JERSEY TOWN, and AIKENITE) which could prove too much off such a slow early turf win in the G.II Fourstardave Handicap. He’s certainly the most talented entrant, but circumstances seem to be against his best effort today.

(1)JACKSON BEND scored a very fast win in the James Marvin Stakes on opening day and sat out the G.I Alfred G. Vanderbilt to avoid the cut-back and recover from the career-best effort. If the 108 Beyer is legitimate, the race is a foregone conclusion. That number is five points better than REGAL RANSOM ran last year but that foe will be fried by SIDNEY’S CANDY and ‘RANSOM is not the same individual he once was. JACKSON BEND was G.I quality as a 3y.o., finishing 3rd to champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY in the Preakness Stakes. At his proper trip, ‘BEND can save ground just off a heated pace and make his winning move straightening away in the stretch. Corey Nakatani has piloted his share of fast sprinters, but JACKSON BEND reminds me most of the emergent THOR’S ECHO. Nakatani will find a way to the wire on top.

(4)JERSEY TOWN owns the field’s top Beyer, a 111 earned in the G.I Cigar Mile Handicap win. He outlasted HAYNESFIELD, in receipt of four pounds from that fast horse and third finisher GIROLAMO. The son of crack sprinter SPEIGHTSTOWN will carry 124 lb., eight to nine pounds more than his last three graded events and seven more than in his last race. His last work on this track is uncharacteristically dull, 4 furlongs in :51 3/5 after a bullet 5 furlongs in :58 4/5. Barclay Tagg is just 8% second off this guy’s length of layoff. Without Saratoga experience, I’ll wait until/if he resurfaces in the 7f G.III Bold Ruler.

Arlington 8th – G.III Washington Park Handicap - 5:37 EST – Classic Grade: F.
(4)DARK COVE was an intriguing shipper for the Hollywood Gold Cup and was severely overmatched, yet ran his career-best Beyer figure. The son of MEDAGLIA d’ORO was forced to stay longer than he wants to run in the Johns Call Stakes on the Saratoga turf, making a move at the mile marker, staying around for another 1/8, then tiring. The two time Keeneland Polytrack winner finds a field and a surface that will produce his “A” game. Ken McPeek tabs Junior Alvarado, a jock who could have piloted the filly MARISTAR or the gelding COLOR ME BLUE, both last out winners on the surface, for Chicago based connections. Instead, DARK COVE gets his commitment. That’s good enough for me.

(8)MISTER MARDI GRAS always seems to run his best race, it’s just a question of whether others run better. He was beaten twice last year by ‘HOPS but the jockey change back to Eddie Perez will produce a solid late run. The last time MISTER MARDI GRAS was freshened, he won.

(5)WORKIN FOR HOPS will likely start as the favorite, with an apparent pace advantage on a track he’s 2-for-2 on. The CITY ZIP gelding was my selection in the G.III Oceanport and succumbed to two very ordinary Monmouth Park runners and BARYSHNIKOV who can’t win in graded company. That poor effort, combined with the fact that he won’t have a target to produce his best run, makes him a vulnerable favorite in my opinion.

When right, (5)GENERAL QUARTERS is better than these. However, the 5y.o. was off from August 2010 until June 2011 for a major injury reason. While his return sprint vs. a very good Midwestern sprinter was encouraging, he didn’t move forward in the G.II Firecracker H. as his 5-2 odds suggested he would. Now there’s another layoff and reports the GENERAL didn’t like the hard turf…so why did he train on the usually hard Churchill Downs dirt in the interim?

Saratoga 10th - G1 Woodward - 5:45 EST – Classic Classic Grade: B.
Initially, I was all set to pick against HAVRE DE GRACE. She’s by no means a RACHEL ALEXANDRA (how many are?) so how can she defeat graded stakes winners FLAT OUT, RULE, GIANT OAK, or even MISSION IMPAZIBLE when RACHEL “the great” just lasted vs. more ordinary older males?

This year, (6)HAVRE DE GRACE successfully carried weight and will be in receipt of three pounds today because of the sex allowance. Her main competitors will be picking up from seven to nine pounds off their last efforts. FLAT OUT carried just 117 lb. when earning his last two, career-best Beyers and will tote a career high 126 lb. impost. HAVRE DE GRACE is actually dropping one pound from her last, 123 lb. Larry Jones has his filly legged up perfectly, a combination of speed and stamina works coming off a 1 ¼ mile defeat by a nose when she led at the 9 furlongs mark. She won’t be much to play, but I will be rooting strongly for her to beat up on the boys.

(7)FLAT OUT is eligible to cycle back up to his G.II Suburban Handicap win figure, 113. It’s been two months since that effort, but his runner-up to TIZWAY in the exhausting G.I Whitney Invitational Handicap coupled with the blazing works will have FLAT OUT, well, flat out of gas the final 1/8.

(8)MAMBO MEISTER freaked in the Primal Stakes but that 11 length romp, 110 speed figure, was earned on his home track. He’s 0-for-1 here and will be stretched to run hard from the bell by recent Saratoga stakes winner RULE. Even if he stays around 10-1, this G.III type will be hard-pressed to hold off the filly.

Monmouth 11th - G2 Molly Pitcher - 5:55 EST – Ladies Classic Grade: B.
(5)QUIET GIANT was absolutely monstrous last out in the local prep for this, the Lady’s Secret Stakes. She sat off the speed, gobbled them up in hand, and drew away with authority without being asked. One of the best angles I know is playing a horse stepping up in class off a win, at the same track, same surface, and same distance. The Todd Pletcher trainee can sit behind some off-form speed types, make the winning move into the lane, and hold off any late threats. This GIANT’S CAUSEWAY offspring, out of a QUIET AMERICAN mare, is the late season threat to the big girls in the Ladies Classic division.

Del Mar 8th - G1 Del Mar Debutante - 8:30 EST – Juvenile Fillies Grade: B-.
Please read my ‘SAGA over at Thorofan’s Handicapper’s Corner.

Good luck and have a great time watching the races!!!

Oh, by the way, after showering and making the family breakfast it’s 9:00 a.m.!!!

SARATOGA STAKES SYNOPSIS

2011-08-27T04:57:00.000-07:00

A very contentious series of five graded stakes will have players and fans interested around the world.

Wisely, Del Mar’s signature day will be held on Sunday. Saratoga, with all it’s history and drama, has carded a day of racing that may go down as one of the best cards ever. Starting with the first race allowance1x, where GLOBAL POWER attempts to prove himself worthy of challenging stakes horses against overlaid graded stakes placed NACHO SAINT and some solid NY breds, the card is bulging with races that demand the utmost in preparation and judgment.

My time belongs primarily to my family at this stage of life, so I’ll have to leave discussion of the non-stakes races to others. I’ll attack the graded events from the Travers Stakes back to the Ballston Spa, trying to isolate the most likely winner in each race. It’s a tall task, but there’s nothing gained from not trying.

Race 12 – The 142nd Travers Stakes (G.I)
I respect SHACKLEFORD’s grit. The Dale Romans trainee is a fighter but shows that winning effort/sub-par finish past performances suggesting he may not be at his best today. The classic 1 ¼ miles may be farther than he can ideally compete at the G.I level. The stumble last out and huge effort in the Haskell Invitational may have taken too much starch from him. I’ve also read that Kelly Breen will put RULER ON ICE into the race earlier and tactical Jim Dandy Stakes (G.II) winner STAY THIRSTY won’t let the Preakness winner dawdle up front.

STAY THIRSTY is the horse to beat and the morning line favorite, coming off a career-best 106 Beyer speed figure (BSF) legitimizing his Belmont Stakes 2nd at 16-1. However, that was an all-out effort while getting a perfect trip. The Todd Pletcher trainee has a history of reacting negatively to new tops. The only time he hasn’t backed up on the Beyer scale was when he ran successive tops in his last two. In the Jim Dandy he had seven weeks between races, today he’ll have only four. Picking up eight pounds and with a strong possibility of regressing, UNCLE MO’s stable mate is not the one on top for me.

RULER ON ICE seeks to continue successful Travers runs by Belmont Stakes winners. His 9 furlong Haskell prep was ideal to stretch out to 10 furlongs today. The question with him is whether he’ll be able to find the necessary stamina if he’s sent to press SHACKLEFORD as I’ve read Kelly Breen will instruct Jose Valdivia. There’s room for him to improve and I believe that sending him into the pace too early will detract from his chances to win. RULER ON ICE is another entrant falling to my process of elimination for the top spot, but a solid consideration underneath at a hint of a price.

Bill Mott said of ROYAL DELTA, after the Alabama upset, a very good dirt horse needs to be able to show speed to challenge for the lead and the stamina to go on with it when others falter.

Enter COIL, my selection for Travers 2011. This son of POINT GIVEN is an impressive individual. He’s proven himself fast, winning a sprint in 1:09 for a 106 BSF, and sturdy, overcoming gate trouble in the Haskell that forced him to overcome a more severe tactical change and rally far wider than Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia expected from removing the blinkers. Like his sire, COIL has the ability to be placed anywhere on the track. When he made the winning bid like he did in the Haskell and Affirmed H. (G.III), he showed the class to finish off his competition. Baffert said when LOOKIN AT LUCKY transferred to dirt so well in the Preakness (his Derby was dreadful luck), he felt synthetics robbed the brilliance from a racehorse. That seems to be the case with COIL, who definitely wasn’t as electric in the Swaps Stakes (G.II) nose defeat as he was when becoming a G.I winner and conqueror of two classic race winners in his first G.I effort. I believe COIL will post another mild upset and take a stranglehold of the 3y.o. division.

For consideration as a longshot that will outrun his odds, MOONSHINE MULLIN at 20-1 could really spice up the exotics. He ran a career-best 99 BSF when 2nd in the Jim Dandy and I give that a big “+” sign because he could have finished much closer to STAY THIRSTY with a better trip. He and Emma-Jayne Wilson were absolutely loaded for the first 7 ½ furlongs, but were bottled up on the rail behind DOMINUS and inside STAY THIRSTY. Every time they tried to move out, they were rebuffed. I counted two such efforts, one on the backside and the other on the far turn. His ability to run on for 2nd despite the rough trip showed me his constitution. He reminds me a lot of FIRST DUDE, a big son of a gun with a long stride that cannot quicken with the likes of COIL but will grind most of his competition into submission. Many are tabbing the green RAISON D’ETAT as the longshot with a big chance; I believe MOONSHINE MULLIN is far and away a better option at twice the price on Travers Stakes day.

Down the line, the Juddmonte runner could become the best of this crop if top-class breeding (A.P. INDY o/o SIGHTSEEK) translates to G.I success on the track. If RAISON D’ETAT had won the Curlin Stakes as impressively as BERNARDINI had won the Withers prior to his Preakness upset, then I may be writing a different story.

To recap:
1st COIL
2nd MOONSHINE MULLIN
3rd RULER ON ICE
4th STAY THRISTY
5th RAISON D’ETAT

Race 11 – The 27th King’s Bishop (G.I)
The fastest sprinter doesn’t always win this race. The 7 furlong distance demands that a huge dose of class go along with uncommon speed. The result is HARD SPUN, HENNY HUGHES, or LOST IN THE FOG gracing the winner’s circle. When speed lacks quality, a VISIONAIRE takes advantage of a pace collapse.

Before his illness was detected, a late start in 2011 and two sub-par efforts had many people questioning the quality of the 2010 Male Juvenile Champion, UNCLE MO. Many still are. I’ve been waiting for the quiet confidence that Todd Pletcher showed in last year’s pre-race interviews when discussing the son of INDIAN CHARLIE. During UNCLE MO’s stay at Saratoga and because of his solid preparation for the King’s Bishop, that swagger has returned.

Even experts picking against UNCLE MO admit that if the juvenile version or better returns on Saturday, the field is running for second money. The layoff that is scaring many people off the Mike Repole bandwagon is actually the reason I believe UNCLE MO will give us a defining 2011 effort. He won his debut on the Saratoga dirt 364 days ago by 14 ½ lengths, causing the Travers day crowd to gasp with admiration when he crossed the finish line. What ensued was great efforts, two G.I wins, that had many racing fans (including me) comparing UNCLE MO to SEATTLE SLEW.

How many of these colts or ridgelings could have sprinted 1:09 1/5 in their debuts and stayed a mile in 1:34 2/5 as a juvenile? While a few have proven themselves quality sprinters, none except UNCLE MO have the potential to show that kind of speed and staying power.

For me, it’s UNCLE MO as the only “A” and a grab bag of logical “B” contenders underneath.

I’m viewing FLASHPOINT as very vulnerable off the layoff. I’ve loved him since the debut maiden win, even thought him a legit speed threat in the Florida Derby. He drew the rail and it took him 25 days to work after winning the Jersey Shore (G.III) in the mud, when horses usually stretch their legs 10-14 days later. He’s never tasted the Saratoga main track and will have to ship up to the bustle of the Spa on Travers day for the race from his quiet Aqueduct base.

1st UNCLE MO
2nd CALEB’S POSSE – will run on strongly, last two sprints won by a total of 9 ½ lengths.
3rd DOMINUS – will grind out a solid run but his future is middle distances like his G.II Dwyer win.
4th RUNFLATOUT – G.III placed sprinter won debut in 1:07 3/5, has learned to ration his speed.
5th POSEIDON’S WARRIOR – the light went on for speedy son of SPEIGHTSTOWN, better at ¾.

Race 10 – The 33rd Ballerina (G.I)
At her speedy best on a fair race track, HILDA’S PASSION cannot be touched from 6 to 7 furlongs. She proved that to TAR HEEL MOM, reversing the neck Sugar Swirl (G.III) defeat by an emphatic 12 ¼ lengths in the Hurrican Bertie (G.II). The Pletcher trainee added two more G.II’s and a G.I placing, 2nd to SASSY IMAGE in the Humana Distaff, to her resume. Even though her best race in previous race cycles has been the second start, I believe the Saratoga main track will be tight enough to produce her “A” game off the freshening.

SASSY IMAGE must be considered the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint division leader on the strength of her two G.I wins, most recently in the Princess Rooney at Calder. That effort, at far beneath her optimal distance preference on a track she obviously wasn’t handling well, really stamped her quality as the rare top-class, late-running sprinter. That said, there’s a reason she was 16-1 when she upset the Humana Distaff field and HILDA’S PASSION was 3-5. If the track plays as fair as it seemed on Friday, or tightens up a bit more, her chances of running down HILDA go way down. Whether she wins or runs on for a placing, she must be considered the favorite in this division come Breeders’ Cup time.

1st HILDA’S PASSION
2nd SASSY IMAGE
3rd HOUR GLASS
4th DEVIL BY DESIGN

Race 9 – The 9th Victory Ride (G.III)
There is so much speed signed up that it would seem ripe for a late runner to pick them off. However, this race may simply go to the quickest of the quick.

From the time that he entered the thoroughbred game, Bob Baffert has been all about speed.

He’s evolved into a Hall of Fame trainer of multiple G.I winners, champions, and near-Triple Crown winners, but the former quarter horse conditioner still knows how to ready a horse for ¾ in graded stakes.

A Z WARRIOR was precocious, winning her debut at 5 ½ furlongs on July 15, placed in a G.III in start #2, and won the G.I Frizette. However, it seems that the routes and not just tough trips are her Achilles heel. A ½ to G.III stakes winner E Z WARRIOR, also trained by Baffert for Ahmed Zayat, she’s always been better suited to sprint.

While her PP’s don’t show her to be blazing on raw times, remember that her first three races were on synthetics (see comment on COIL in the Travers). Her debut win was wire-to-wire on Cushion Track, the Cali synthetic most like dirt. The Frizette score was pressing/on the lead, outrunning today’s foes MAPLE FOREST and VALIANT PASSION. The two 6 furlong gate works on Del Mar’s Polytrack are sure to have the BERNARDINI filly legged up and on her toes, just like she was last year for the Frizette.

1st A Z WARRIOR
2nd HOT SUMMER – drops out of the G.II Black Eyed Susan, better around 1 corner
3rd FUNNY SUNNY – done nothing wrong in four starts, gets tested for class
4th VALIANT PASSION – daylight Sar win but needs to prove it again in graded company

8th – The 23rd Ballston Spa (G.II)
I’ve been waiting for TAPITSFLY to return to her brilliant juvenile form after sustaining a major injury and missing all of her 3y.o. season in 2010. The former BC Juvenile Fillies winner has been brought along steadily by Dale Romans and looks primed for the race of her life. This will be the second start of this cycle, chasing her last out wire-to-wire conqueror TRIX IN THE CITY and the classy ROMACACA. I believe they’ll duel each other into submission and Robby Albarado can sweep past them and open a commanding lead before the stretch runners unwind.

While she was no match for this class in the G.II Distaff Turf Mile against AVIATE, she’s had two more useful runs since. TAPITSFLY could have a slight course advantage with a 2-1-1-0 record on the Saratoga turf, the score coming on the Widener course she’ll run over today. Her grandsire MARLIN was fast and could carry his speed on the grass. He was best as he got older…like I hope TAPITSFLY will show today.

1st TAPITSFLY
2nd ROMACACA – figures to run her usual solid race, could be softened by TRIX IN THE CITY
3rd AVIATE – G.II winner in U.S., G.III winner in England, drops from two G.I’s, the class
4th No guess

Enjoy the day!

In Search of the Travers Stakes Winner: Provincial preference or public prognostication?

2011-08-26T01:05:00.000-07:00

Experience over the Saratoga main track usually produces the winner of the “Midsummer Derby,” but the tote board will provide an edge in the Travers Stakes.

The winner of the G.I Travers Stakes over the last 20 years came out of one of four races. The local prep, the G.II Jim Dandy Stakes, nearly tripled the next-closest races with 11 winners (55%). The Travers winner completed the Saratoga sweep six times. Surprisingly, the G.II Swaps Stakes across the country at Hollywood Park produced four Travers Stakes winners, tying with the more prestigious G.I Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park, while the Belmont Stakes propelled only BIRDSTONE to the Travers winner’s circle. Below is a list of the winners over the last two decades and their finish position in the last race:

2010 AFLEET EXPRESS ($16.00) – 3rd Jim Dandy
2009 SUMMER BIRD ($7.80) – 2nd Haskell Invitational
2008 COLONEL JOHN ($10.40) – 3rd Swaps Stakes
2007 STREET SENSE ($2.70*) – 1st Jim Dandy
2006 BERNARDINI ($2.70*) – 1st Jim Dandy
2005 FLOWER ALLEY ($8.00) – 1st Jim Dandy
2004 BIRDSTONE ($11.60) – 1st Belmont Stakes
2003 TEN MOST WANTED ($7.50) – 2nd Swaps Stakes
2002 MEDAGLIA D’ORO ($3.50*) – 1st Jim Dandy
2001 POINT GIVEN ($3.30*) – 1st Haskell Invitational
2000 UNSHADED ($8.90) – 3rd Jim Dandy
1999 LEMON DROP KID ($9.30) – 2nd Jim Dandy
1998 CORONADO’S QUEST ($4.90) – 1st Jim Dandy
1997 DEPUTY COMMANDER ($7.50) – 2nd Swaps Stakes
1996 WILL’S WAY ($16.60) – 2nd Jim Dandy
1995 THUNDER GULCH ($3.50*) – 1st Swaps Stakes
1994 HOLY BULL ($3.60*) – 1st Haskell Invitational
1993 SEA HERO ($15.40) – 4th Jim Dandy
1992 THUNDER RUMBLE ($17.20) – 1st Jim Dandy
1991 CORPORATE REPORT ($16.60) – 2nd Haskell Invitational

The average winning non-favorite payoff was $11.20 while the median payoff was COLONEL JOHN at $10.40. There were 14 times over the last two decades that betting against the public choice was the winning decision. The highest priced winner was THUNDER RUMBLE at $17.20 in 1992 while ’98 hero CORONADO’S QUEST was the lowest-priced return at $4.90.

Blowout longshots, above 8-1, should only be viewed as contenders for the minor positions in vertical exotic wagers. Also, competitive experience in the top 3y.o. races is of paramount importance to Travers Stakes success, a compelling condition for those players searching for a price on top. The non-favorite winners didn’t necessarily win in their prior effort. In reality, 10 of the 14 “price” victors were 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in graded stakes and their average winning payoff generously rewarded their backers at $11.60. By contrast, the last-out winners doubling up in the Travers returned a slightly reduced average of $10.40.

The winning favorites were prohibitive, returning a paltry $3.20 or sent off at average odds of 3-5. The most notable statistic suggesting the Travers favorite was too strong to play against was off-odds at less than even-money. Those talented 3y.o.’s won 100% of the time, six-for-six! All of the odds-on choices also won their last starts reminding the public their “A” game should be expected. I’ve compiled the list of 14 beaten favorites followed by their off-odds and Travers Stakes finish position in ():

2010 TRAPPE SHOT 3.90-1 (9th)
2009 QUALITY ROAD 1.50-1 (3rd)
2008 PYRO 3.75-1 (3rd)
2005 ROMAN RULER 2.15-1 (3rd)
2004 LION HEART 2.60-1 (7th, last)
2003 PEACE RULES 2.30-1 (2ND)
2000 DIXIE UNION 2.55-1 (4th)
1999 MENIFEE 1.60-1 (3rd)
1998 VICTORY GALLOP 1.20-1 (2nd)
1997 AWESOME AGAIN 1.45-1 (3rd)
1996 SKIP AWAY 1.45-1 (3rd)
1993 KISSIN KRIS 2.60-1 (2nd)
1992 ALYDEED 1.70-1 (8th)
1991 STRIKE THE GOLD 1.70-1 (4th)

Of the beaten favorites, SKIP AWAY (steadied on rail backstretch) and VICTORY GALLOP probably don’t deserve to be on this side of the discussion considering their Travers misfortunes, notable traffic trouble and a wide trip/nose defeat, respectively. However, it’s entirely possible that enough “smart money” was bet against those very good 3y.o.’s because neither SKIP AWAY nor VICTORY GALLOP were as “unbeatable” as HOLY BULL, THUNDER GULCH, POINT GIVEN, MEDAGLIA D’ORO, BERNARDINI and STREET SENSE were due to race circumstances.

I think most people will agree that the post-time favorite in the 2011 Travers Stakes will be a tepid choice. The morning line is suggestive of the public’s thinking, with STAY THIRSTY tabbed as the 5-2 favorite. Without a clear division leader at this relatively late point in the year, and no repeat G.I winners, some experts are suggesting the result will catapult the winner to the top of the list. Is there a champion in this field? Or, will there be yet another novel G.I winner to further muddle the 3y.o. picture?

To summarize:
1. The G.II Jim Dandy has produced 11 of the last 20 Travers Stakes winners (55%).
2. A Jim Dandy winner returned to capture the Travers on six occasions.
3. The G.I Haskell Invitational and G.II Swaps Stakes tied for 2nd in Travers Stakes successes: 4 (20%).
4. The non-favorite won 70% of the time at an average $11.20 mutual.
5. No Travers winner the last two decades started at 8-1 or more.
6. Prohibitive favorites (3-5 or less) were a perfect six-for-six the last 20 years.

Good luck dissecting the Travers and the plentiful graded stakes action from coast to coast this weekend!

SUNDAY GRADED STAKES

2011-08-21T00:51:00.001-07:00

Saratoga, Del Mar, Emerald Downs keep the summer graded stakes action hot in the U.S.

SARATOGA

4th - Lake Placid S. (G.2) - 2:39 p.m. EDT

WINTER MEMORIES - Simply the best and most consistent filly in the field. The rest are running for second money. Not even low % Lezcano can screw this one up right?

DEL MAR

3rd - Rancho Bernardo H. (G.3) - 6:04 p.m. EDT

TANDA - Hasn't been the winner in '11 that she was last year but she's been campaigned rather ambitiously considering the 10 month layoff. Attracted Rosario for her first three starts this year which were disappointments. However, the A Gleam 3rd represented a hint that she's ready to run a winning race on Sunday. IRISH GYPSY may be a little vulnerable off the terrible Sar run and the shipping, back on short rest, which will help TANDA make up the stagger. Plus, there's an attractive pull in the weights vs. that foe to consider. The coup de grace? Goes from Hendricks to Mitchell and Espinoza to Talamo.

CALIFORNIA NECTAR will take 'em as far as she can. Her style is not preferred on the Polytrack. However, the speed she shows is graded stakes caliber evidenced by her win in the G.2 Santa Ynez over ZAZU and PLUM PRETTY. P.Val's going as good as ever but I'll wait on her until Santa Anita.

Baffert allowed IRISH GYPSY to work a bullet 3f which sealed the decision to run in this spot. I'm hoping the ship was too much.

EMERALD DOWNS

8th - Longacres Mile (G.3) - 8:53 p.m. EDT

ASSESSMENT - 2009 Longacres Mile winner was 3rd when defending his title last year to NOOSA BEACH. Had loads of trouble on the turn in 2nd 2011 start when 2nd to NOOSA BEACH, yet ran on well and galloped out ahead of his rival. Something must have went awry after that race, works were slower than normal and his 5th place finish vs. NOOSA and WINNING MACHINE proved it. ASSESSMENT bounced out of the Budweiser disappointment very well, posting three solid 5f breezes resulting in renewed vigor which featured a premature rail move and fade to 3rd in the Mount Ranier. He's rounding back into form at the right time for Howard Belvoir, a solid 2-for-8 in graded stakes according to Bris. Juan Gutierrez is 2nd leading rider to Leslie Mawing (WINNING MACHINE) and will be saving ground to give his mount the best shot to recall his past glory. Who was the last horse to defeat NOOSA BEACH? None other than...ASSESSMENT!

NOOSA BEACH deserves mention as the Emerald City kingpin is riding a 7 race win streak. However, he wasn't his dominant self last out and perhaps his high imposts are getting to him. While he's worked thrice since at 5f, they're not with the same vigor of my top choice. Fair warning, he may not have been at 100% NOOSA BEACH fitness prior to the race...it took him 18 days to work back when he usually stretches his legs 10-11 days after racing. He's on schedule for this so I'm expecting another big run from the best horse not many have heard of.

At the weights, considering ASSESSMENT's past class and good current form he's the value and my selection.

Enjoy the racing!

ALABAMA ANALYSIS

2011-08-19T20:59:00.000-07:00

Traveling 1 1/4 miles will be the litmus test for a competitive field of six fillies.

Before I begin the palaver about the 2011 Alabama stakes, let's enjoy the 2010 thriller between BLIND LUCK and HAVRE DE GRACE.

It was a trip that even the brilliant RACHEL ALEXANDRA had trouble with. Her G.I Preakness win in 2009, 1/16 mile shorter than the true classic distance, was nearly her undoing against flying Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD. She succumbed to the otherwise ordinary PERSISTENTLY last year in the G.I Personal Ensign at 10 furlongs.

Dean Arnold, author of A Bettor Way and TVG Newsletter's Spur of the Moment makes a timely suggestion when considering races at 1 1/4 miles. It's a simple system that can be tried in the Alabama and next week in the Travers Stakes and Pacific Classic.

Read Joseph Burns' lament over at PowerCap because of the absence of hype surrounding IT'S TRICKY and her New York Triple Tiara bid.

Check out Brian Appleton's Alabama preview with some interesting tidbits to ponder before making final selections.

To get your competitive juices flowing, stop by The Knight Sky blog and chime in on the Alabama Stakes exacta box contest.

Here's my 2011 Alabama Stakes take with a strong consideration given to Daily Racing Form's Beyer Speed Figures and my views on form cycles relative to the figures of all the fillies involved.

(6) INGLORIOUS (Luis Contreras, Josie Carroll, Donver Stable, 6-1) is the only filly to run, and win, at the 1 1/4 mile classic distance of the historic ALABAMA. Carroll has done a magnificent job with the daughter of HENNESSY, a filly who's bred to run a middle distance in top company. Not only has she proven herself up to that task in Canada vs. the girls in the Woodbine Oaks, she exceeded her genes to defeat Canada's best boys in the Queen's Plate.

However, that was at her home base on the friendly Woodbine Polytrack over which she's undefeated in five starts. On the surface, it would appear INGLORIOUS isn't better on dirt. However, I point out that she improved her top Beyer speed figure (BSF) from a 73 on Poly to a 81 her first time on dirt in the G.III Rachel Alexandra Stakes when 2nd to one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites, KATHMANBLU.

If she were to improve by eight points on Saturday going Poly to dirt, she'd project to a 107 and make a shambles of what many (including me) consider a competitive Alabama renewal. I'll settle for 1/2 that improvement - 103, a clear victory over PLUM PRETTY.

(3) PLUM PRETTY (Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert, Peachtree Stable, 2-1) ran a top BSF of 99 in the Sunland Oaks which propelled her to a G.I Kentucky Oaks win despite a slight regression to a 95.

After suffering a minor illness prior to the start of the Triple Tiara, she was raced in California a few weeks later instead and finished a tiring 2nd in the Hollywood Oaks to ZAZU. She earned a 93 that day and subsequently finished 2nd in the CCA Oaks to IT'S TRICKY with a 96. The Alabama will be her third start in the cycle, making her eligible to improve on the CCA figure, projecting her back to, or better than, her career-best figure. With IT'S TRICKY breathing down her neck again, can she realistically eclipse her best figure? On the pace, going 1 1/4 miles where the pace should be even milder than it was in the CCA Oaks, PLUM PRETTY can absolutely clear the classy IT'S TRICKY into the lane and try to hold on with a repeat of her best. However, the early/often pressure from IT'S TRICKY may tire 'PRETTY severely in the final 1/16. If INGLORIOUS cannot act on the dirt like the Poly, PLUM PRETTY is the next most likely winner, admittedly at a narrow margin - 99.

(5) ST. JOHN'S RIVER (Robby Albarado, Andrew Leggio, Jr., DeDe McGehee, 5-1) would seem to have every advantage at the 1 1/4 miles. She was a flying 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks earning a lifetime best of 95, 12 points higher than her fast-closing FG Oaks runner-up (83) to DAISY DEVINE.

After a freshening, she returned to win the G.II Delaware Oaks with an ordinary 86.

That's what she does when not fully cranked, 42 days ago...hmmm, that's a pattern Leggio's filly has enjoyed before. After 'RIVER finished 2nd in the G.II FG Oaks, she was given 41 days into the Kentucky Oaks. I can see her improving on the career-top figure by a few points at this stage of her career. 98 is going to put her so very close once again and her supporters can certainly give her a few extra points if projecting her best performance at the trip. If the bettors only have eyes for the CCA Oaks 1-2 finishers, ST. JOHN'S RIVER along with INGLORIOUS could be the value in the race.

(4) IT'S TRICKY (Eddie Castro, Kiaran McLaughlin, Godolphin Stable, 9-5) is going to be favored and I can't argue the fact considering she's won two straight G.I's, owns the best BSF in the field, and is going for the Triple Tiara.

However, she was all out coming off the turn to run down PLUM PRETTY and her BSF regressed from a lifetime best 104 in the Acorn to a 97 in the CCA Oaks. She's 3rd in the cycle and, though her top came 10 weeks ago on June 11, is 4 weeks enough time to recover from the race and improve on the Beyer scale? Her best would throttle 'PRETTY, but does IT'S TRICKY need a wet track to run back to that figure? I'm projecting the CCA number as the best she'll be able to do on the day. IT'S TRICKY will be in a dog fight down the stretch and the trip will dictate whether she's in or out of the money - 97.

(1) ROYAL DELTA (Jose Lezcano, Bill Mott, Palides Stable, 6-1) is the only other entrant with a triple figure Beyer (100), which she earned in the G.II Black Eyed Susan win.

Clearly, she wants to stay all day long but in the 'Susan she didn't run down the class of IT'S TRICKY or PLUM PRETTY who figure to be cruising at a jog. Off the layoff necessitated by a minor injury, she was a well beaten 3rd (85 BSF) in the CCA Oaks which would seemingly set her up for an improved run. However, to make up 15 points or so on two uber-talented fillies with a hoof which may still be bothering her (note the turf work two spins back) is too much to ask. Mott has also hinted at switching her to the lawn, which tells me at least one of her hooves are too tender for the pounding on the main track. She's a toss for me - 92 is a generous projection.

(2) PINCH PIE (John Velazquez, Anthony Dutrow, Michael Dubb/Bethlehem Stables, 15-1) is clearly the least accomplished and slowest of the bunch. However, it intrigues me that she's been better on turf considering her sire line (VICTORY GALLOP/CYRPTOCLEARANCE) and damsire (OLYMPIO) would tend to throw better class animals on dirt. While she's the most likely proposition to finish last, I think she's not quite as far off ROYAL DELTA as her 15-1 morning line (which figures to go over 30-1) suggests. Trainer Dutrow is firing big bullets at the meeting (9-4-2-2) and tabs Velazquez...human connections aren't too shabby, right? Wouldn't it be a story if she were to thwart the Triple Tiara run as her sire ended REAL QUIET's Triple Crown? Alas, she's not nearly as accomplished to this point in her career and against this well-matched field, the caboose is more than likely her realisitc finish position - 82

I'd love to read what you think of the blog, the race and the analysis.

Good luck!

Del Mar Experience - La Jolla Stakes Day

2011-08-16T23:40:00.001-07:00

A Pictorial Review

"Where the Surf Meets the Turf"

The turf chute view of the clubhouse and partial grandstand.

Turf Course - Please replace the divots!

Quaint, beautiful paddock

2010 Pacific Classic winning silks - Zabeel Racing International, RICHARD'S KID

View from the Apron

View from the Owner's/Trainer's Boxes

RACKETEER - Pedroza helped 8y.o. gelding find past class for La Canada Stable, trainer Jack Carava

DRILL looked worth his $300k price tag, Rafael Bejarano up.

DRILL flew home.

ACHAK drove owner and newly-inducted Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer to Pacific Classic Dreams?

O'Neill got the big THIRTYFIRSTSTREET run he dressed for

Baffert, Flores and P. Val: Animated conversation portended La Jolla result?

Valenzuela worth every bit of 120lb. - 3 wins including the La Jolla Stakes!

BURNS and Valenzuela

Favored MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE and Bejarano

Bejarano guided MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE into a nightmare La Jolla stretch run.

BURNS and P.Val kicked clear.

Attending the races is the interactive reality experience that ranks far above any sporting event!!!

I hope the pictures encourage a few novices (and maybe some hardened online horseplayers) to take a trip to a summer race track near you.

Enjoy the game!

A SPECIAL PREVIEW: Saratoga hosts late developing Hopeful prospects.

2011-08-15T01:58:00.000-07:00

Five of the six entrants won last out, headlined by Pletcher-trained STAT and Woodbine stakes winner BANNER BILL.

Todd Pletcher, as always, is a force to be reckoned with on the NYRA circuit. He’s leading the trainer standings at 28% wins during the current Saratoga meeting according to the Equibase and Daily Racing Form. That number is right in line with his yearly and juvenile averages. The amazing Pletcher stat is his win percentage in graded stakes, scoring with one of every four he runs. His juveniles GEORGIE’S ANGEL (G.III Schuylerville) and OVERDRIVEN (G.II Sanford) have already earned black type at the Saratoga meeting.

Without a starter in Sunday’s G.II Adirondack, he’s represented in the G.II Saratoga Special by 7-5 morning line favorite, STAT, who won his debut at Belmont Park on July 9 by two lengths in 1:04.76 as the 3-5 favorite. Like most offspring of UNBRIDLED’S SONG, STAT is stamped with his sire’s size and a gray coat. http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifAsked for position by John Velazquez out of the gate, it took a while before the young colt got into stride. Once he did, Velazquez kept him four wide where traffic wouldn’t stop him. When the pacesetter folded, the race was over in a matter of strides. Pletcher had to be happy with the win and the education, two races rolled into one.

Considering his stride and style, it would be natural to think he’d adore the extra furlong. However, running into a :58 and small change 5f time against maidens will be more challenging against winners. If he rates, STAT could get into traffic from his post #2 when the drive for home commences. If he goes for the lead, then he'll be trying something he's never done. Only special horses do that, is he one of them?

Normal 2nd-out improvement could project him a little closer and faster throughout the race. However, with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure he’s proven no faster on that scale than Calder shipper/debut winner and second chioce TRINNIBERG. I’m banking on the fact Pletcher has already won with his share of juveniles in graded stakes and will side with another.

From the rail out, here’s commentary on the rest of the field:
1. UNION RAGS (5-1, J. Castellano, M. Matz) – Won his debut at Delaware Park from off the pace in easy fashion despite breaking 7th of nine. From the rail, if the DIXIE UNION colt breaks slowly again he may be spotting too much ground against faster, better horses than he faced in that debut win. However, the ease with which he won suggested there’s a lot more under the hood for Matz to refine. Ignore the 65 Beyer if you’re a believer…visually his figure should have a “+” assigned to it to suggest he’s much better than the number. I’d consider him a stronger win candidate if he drew off the rail.

2. STAT (7-5, J. Velazquez, T. Pletcher) – see above.

3. BANNER BILL (6-1, A. Solis, R. Biamonte) – Class analysts will be salivating over the propects of this son of ROCKPORT HARBOR based in Canada. He’s uhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifndefeated in three starts on Woodbine’s Polytrack, two of them stakes including a gritty Colin S. win. ‘BILL has raced monthly since his May 15 debut win and he’s just as likely to regress badly as he is to step and win in his first race on dirt. He’s helped pad his conditioner’s juvenile success, a gaudy 34% rate with 53 starters. Favored only in his last start, it took a while to convince WO followers of his quality. Whether BANNER BILL is a cut below or the Polytrack made him appear maxxed out on the synthetic main track, I think “over-the-top” is the angle I’ll use to jettison him.

4. INDIAN EVENING (5-1, R. Maragh, J. Carroll) – The son of INDIAN CHARLIE came from off the pace to score in his Woodbine debut just a week prior to ‘BILL’s Colin S. win. INDIAN EVENING ran 6 lengths faster on raw time but was two points slower than the other Canadian shipper, BANNER BILL on the Beyer scale. Dispatched as the 7-5 favorite despite the rail post, he broke 6th of seven spotting the longshot pacesetter and the 8-5 favorite/ next-out winner BONGIORNO JOHNNY as much as three lengths. INDIAN EVENING made an electric move coming into the stretch splitting horses, something most juveniles don’t know how to do until they get older. He ran down ‘JOHNNY with a final ¼ in something like :23.33 stopping the clock in 1:09.91. His dam is ½ sister to 1997 Horse of the Year and Champion Juvenile FAVORITE TRICK and his young sire has already produced the likes of Champions UNCLE MO, FLEET INDIAN and INDIAN BLESSING. It sounds cliché, but here it goes: “The sky’s the limit!” My pick to post a mild upset.

5. ITALO (10-1, J. Sanchez, Wesley Ward) - Finished far up the track in the G.II Coventry at Ascot after a nice maiden win at Longchamp 17 days earlier. That win earned him a 93 Racing Post Rating, roughly 10 points higher than the Beyer scale, which would make ITALO the top figure horse in the race. However, all is not well with the son of WITH DISTINCTION. There was a workout stoppage between July 10 and July 31, a period where he would have taken two additional a.m. spins. Eased in his last, first time Lasix…he either wins by daylight, because he’ll have created an insurmountable lead, or he loses and runs way up the track. At 10-1 morning line, I’d never talk believers off him. I’ve considered him strongly but I just can’t get past the gap in workouts. A speed/fade candidate, I hope he stays with TRINNIBERG as long as he can to set up INDIAN EVENING.

6. TRINNIBERG (3-1, C. Velasquez, B. Pariboo) – the Calder shipper has come north for the acid test and Bismath Pariboo has seemingly found a field the son of TEUFLESBERG fits in well. His 78 Beyer figure is close to STAT’s 79 so it seems the NYRA morning line maker believes the public will bet to the numbers. His front-running style has been rewarded many times thus far during the Saratoga meeting. Look for him to pop the gate and establish the lead throughout in a race seemingly devoid of legitimate pace. However, there’s a chance he’ll be joined by Wesley Ward’s European shipper ITALO. As the second choice, his presence at the front won’t be lost on any of the other entrants’ connections…or, they’ll be too afraid to try him early which will virtually hand him the win. Something to watch for: Does he show up with or without front wraps? If he goes with them, as in his debut, is that a weakness this field won’t allow him to cover up? His chances go way up if his legs are clean.

The Pick: INDIAN EVENING

Good luck to all those able to play the Saratoga card!

SUNDAY GRADED STAKES

2011-08-14T11:47:00.000-07:00

No need to look further than the surface to find the winners.

I attended the races at Del Mar on Saturday and was horribly disappointed with the condition of the turf course (I will attach photos when I return home later today, forgot my USB cable). It is beaten up worse than Mohammad Ali in his infamous “rope-a-dope” match. It lacked water and had more pock marks than a teenager. No way, no how, no matter how much I love Southern California racing would I suggest that Breeders’ Cup consider holding their championships at the seaside track.

Okay, off my soapbox.

The G.I John C. Mabee on the travesty of a grass course will go to the most nimble of participants, one who's proven over the Del Mar turf. Last year’s winner WASTED TEARS meets a field that is more accomplished and is not in the winning form she enjoyed in 2010.

The pace will be quick and contested with ‘TEARS, CELTIC PRINCESS, MADAGLIA D’AMOUR, and MALIBU PIER not getting any breathers.

HARMONIOUS and Joel Rosario will be saving ground and slingshot by them all. COZI ROSI also figures to enjoy the pace situation but the John Sadler trainee seems to me a cut below the quality of the John Shirreffs-trained runner.

At Saratoga, speedy fillies figure to rule the G.II Adirondack. FUNNY PROPOSITION broke last of a field of seven yet ran a 21 1/5 first quarter. That kind of speed is dangerous and can sap the kick of other maiden winners and the closers.

However, the Mark Casse trainee won’t be able to put away another impressive maiden winner, MY MISS AURELIA. The Steve Asmussen runner had sustained speed through the middle 3 furlongs on this dirt course that will fell the Churchill Downs shipper. When Shaun Bridgmohan seeks a breather for 'PROPOSITION, Julien Leparoux will turn up the heat with 'AURELIA and go on for another Saratoga score.

More information, including pictures, on the not so thrilling Del Mar experience will be posted soon.

Good luck on Sunday!

CALIFORNIA GIRLS

2011-08-06T03:33:00.000-07:00

SWITCH and TURBULENT DESCENT represent Golden State G.I racing on both coasts.

There are three G.I events and a G.II race to consider on Saturday. In my opinion, the race is for second in two of the top level races.

G.I Clement L. Hirsch - SWITCH

The John Sadler trainee, for long time client CRK Stable, is a dual G.I winner sprinting but will try to legitimize her credentials for the BC Ladies Classic with a win in the G.I Clement L. Hirsch.

In her three of her last four races around two turns, she’s been defeated by champions BLIND LUCK and ZENYATTA by ½ length each as well as HAVRE DE GRACE in the G.I Apple Blossom by just ¾ length.

The growing sentiment is that the daughter of QUIET AMERICAN is best around one turn and up to a mile. Her record is fodder for those skeptics, especially her narrow G.I Santa Margarita loss to longshot MISS MATCHED after attending a mile fraction of 1:33 4/5. However, the tactically inclined filly finds her easiest assignment routing to date. She and Joel Rosario could be tracking the Bob Baffert pair FREEDOM STAR and ELLAFITZ through tepid fractions. If so, SWITCH should put those two away by the head of the lane and hold off any late threats.

The contenders

ST. TRINIANS, now a 6y.o., is the only entrant with a chance to run SWITCH down at the projected pace scenario. However, she has failed to do so on two prior occasions, most recently in the G.I Vanity when both were defeated by BLIND LUCK. Despite the kind touch of Chantal Sutherland to guide her around, I see no reason for the G.II winner to turn the tables on Saturday.

ZAZU will be chasing older females for the first time in her career without a break in the weights. If the pace unfolds as I expect, she will be trying to catch some fresh and classy distaffers including her stable mate SWITCH. She’s danced against the top 3y.o. fillies in the country and held her own, scoring a G.I win thanks to a suicidal pace in the Las Virgenes. Originally named as a possible G.I Alabama Stakes contestant, this salty G.I is a challenging audible for a filly I believe is better suited to dirt racing. Her supporters will point to the bullet 6f drill on the 30th and Garrett Gomez as reasons to believe in an upset.

Speaking of dirt racing, FREEDOM STAR was just graded stakes placed on synthetics but is now a three time stakes winner including the G.III Azeri at Oaklawn Park in 2010. Despite taking more than a year off, she extended her win streak to three since being transferred to the real stuff. Carrying high weight and Alonso Quinonez, I’m viewing this as a prep race for her third race in the cycle…maybe something like the G.I Personal Ensign at Saratoga on August 28?

G.I Test – TURBULENT DESCENT

This is the game that Mike Puype believes is her best. Undefeated up to 7 furlongs in three career starts is hard to argue with. She’s the most accomplished 3y.o. filly in the race, by far.

The daughter of CONGRATS has two G.I wins along with a pair of G.II scores. Her only two losses came at the neck of ZAZU, because she chased into a 1:08 3/5 6f fraction in the 1 mile, G.I Las Virgenes, and dual G.I winner IT’S TRICKY on a sloppy/sealed track. TURBULENT DESCENT is undefeated in two starts at the specialized distance of 7 furlongs. Favored in all seven career starts, she’ll make it eight on Saturday while scoring for the sixth time.

How good is TURBULENT DESCENT’s form? PLUM PRETTY was 4 ½ lengths back of her in the Las Virgenes and captured the Sunland Park Oaks by a RACHEL-like 25 lengths before posting a mild Kentucky Oaks upset. Her California nemisis ZAZU was 3rd in the G.I Kentucky Oaks and took the G.II Hollywood Oaks last out avenging the defeat by PLUM PRETTY. HER SMILE, 3rd beaten 10 lengths, captured the G.I Prioress last out over today’s rival POMEROY’S PISTOL. Another fellow entrant, COAX LIBERTY, was 5 ½ lengths back in 3rd at the finish of the G.II Beaumont and came back to win a stakes at Belmont Park.

David Flores, no stranger to national success, is the only jockey TURBULENT DESCENT has known. He will follow her to the ends of the earth to keep from losing the mount on the second-most talented 4y.o. filly he’s scaled. The other, a mount he gave up?

ZENYATTA.

Enough said?

The main contender – AMERICAN LADY

You read that right. She’s no graded stakes winner. In fact, she’s never raced in a stakes race. That would make AMERICAN LADY overmatched, right?

Bob Baffert means business in the Test…you’ve been warned. He brings AMERICAN LADY for the acid test of acid tests. A debut winner on Santa Anita’s dirt main track, she found ultra-fast Richard Mandella trainee RUMOR too much in career start #2. That runner-up finish, over 8 lengths clear of 3rd, qualifies as a G.II placing in my book. RUMOR is that good sprinting. Last out, the Kaleem Shah-owned filly was easily the best of older allowance types.

The presence of the barn’s ace jockey Martin Garcia, the success of COIL in the G.I Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park last weekend, and a tweet by @midnightlute that he was in Saratoga Springs having dinner with his wife on Friday night (he tweeted his pre-race meal prior to the Haskell win) should keep AMERICAN LADY on anyone’s legitimate contender list.

The others

HER SMILE, POMEROY’S PISTOL, and SALTY STRIKE all would have been worthy win threats without the California girls present. However, all three are too inconsistent to compete with TURBULENT DESCENT and AMERICAN LADY on Saturday.

HER SMILE is set to regress off a career-best effort in which she enjoyed an ideal pace set-up. Yes, she was blocked for a time, but she enjoyed the class relief in the G.I.

POMEROY’S PISTOL ran her best race last out, finishing 2nd behind HER SMILE while3 ½ clear of Baffert’s ALIENATION. She’ll need to improve to handle TURBULENT DESCENT, but 4th of the cycle isn’t typically when horses move up.

SALTY STRIKE bounced in the G.I Mother Goose after two successive career-best efforts at Churchill Downs, including the G.III Dogwood S. win. Her last was not flattered at all by the dismal efforts of BUSTER’S READY and JOYFUL VICOTORY in the Coaching Club American Oaks.

Enjoy the rest of the racing!

Haskell Invitational Stakes

2011-07-31T12:13:00.000-07:00

Here are my field comments:

1. COIL - Big, the spitting image of his sire POINT GIVEN. Talented, but significantly less accomplished than his sire at this stage. That said, he's shown up with winning races four times (crossing the line first in three) in five career starts. First dirt is a question, but he's in good form and working well on the tiring Polytrack. 3-1 is a sign of respect for Baffert who takes his #1 jock Martin Garcia for the race. Look for him to break sharp, dissuade pressure from JOE VANN and PANTS ON FIRE, try to withstand the pressure form the Preakness winner and out-game any late threats. The former Triple Crown nominee is ready to throw his hat into a muddled 3y.o. picture. The pick to post the upset.

2. JOE VANN - Won a weak G.III Illinois Derby and the G.II Peter Pan 4th looks weaker after ALTERNATION's dull 4th in the Jim Dandy yesterday. Son of SILVER DEPUTY desperately needs to face weaker, especially at the trip.

3. PANTS ON FIRE - I despise when horses stumble at the start...it's just so hard on them and injuries could be hidden in sub-maximal works until the stress of a race. His work w/ RULER ON ICE was shown via replay...PANTS didn't look comfortable while RULER was clearly the work winner. Will fade late a la his Derby effort.

4. CONCEALED IDENTITY - His 2nd to PANTS ON FIRE was non-threatening and proof he's not a legit graded stakes performer. The Maryland-bred is in desperate need of reality, returning to his Maryland roots where he can shine. Deserves LS status.

5. SHACKLEFORD - Needs to be sent and runs as fast for as far as he can. His "bobble" at the start of his winning Preakness efffort at 12-1 was partly to blame for his dull Belmont performance, along with the trip being much too far. He's fresher and is the ranking speed routing at the G.I level vs. 3y.o.'s this year. However, he couldn't win the Derby on a soft pace and there's no way he wins the Preakness if ANIMAL KINGDOM gets a clean trip. What is public opinion of SHACK in today's race without the Preakness win? Can so many sharp horseplayers have been wrong about dismissing him at 68-1 in the Florida Derby, 23-1 in the Kentucky Derby, and 12-1 in the Preakness? Today he'll be a heavy favorite for the first time in his career on name recognition alone. Will sit the trip off COIL but maybe the 4 lb. shift is enough to swing things in the rail horse's favor.

6. RULER ON ICE - The Belmont Stakes winner at 24-1 is trying to win a race his sire, ROMAN RULER, won in his day. Before the Belmont, there was nothing to suggest him as a legit G.I animal. I believe circumstance had more to do with the win than his class including trouble/injury for ANIMAL KINGDOM and the sloppy going. However, he did hold off STAY THIRSTY who came back to win the Jim Dandy yesterday and outworked his stable mate last week. Perhaps he's turned the corner but I'm still a bit skeptical as he missed at least two works between June 27 and July 17 He is the only legit late threat but a colt unable to catch CONCEALED IDENTITY two races back as the favorite is a short price I'll avoid.

7. J J'S LUCKY TRAIN - His graded stakes success came in the G.III Bay Shore and has followed with two graded stakes placings around one turn in elongated sprints. His routes found the son of SILVER TRAIN on the pace, including a Whirlaway 2nd to eventual G.I Wood Memorial winner TOBY'S CORNER. Rested since the Woody Stephens, he's being trained like a colt with a hoof issue since his last two works were on turf for this dirt effort. Reliable colt just seems against it from class and conditioning angles.

8. ASTROLOGY - Hasn't justified the potential he hinted at with a G.II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes win as a juvenile. Minor awards in the three graded stakes, topped by his 3rd in the Preakness, made him a 1-2 choice in the G.III Iowa Derby but he fizzled badly. ASTROLOGY has always finished better when involved in the early running. However, he seems in store for a wide trip if Leparoux puts him in the race considering the speed/pace types to his inside. More promise than results to this point in his career.

Enjoy the rest of the Haskell card, as well as the action from Saratoga and Del Mar!

Del Mar Opening Day: Amateurcapper still watching other four legged animals.

2011-07-20T00:31:00.000-07:00

Freshening is nearly over, time to get used to Del Mar and the Polytrack that's not exactly the best version.

So, I've been on hiatus for reasons that are fairly ordinary to people in the 40-something demographic. After the serious issues, a holiday with my family came up on the agenda. Funny, the following four-legged animals don't look much like thoroughbred race horses! These tough dudes can't be broken.

There were also a few natural wonders to enjoy:

Speaking of summer wonders, Del Mar was rated #3 by a Hello Race Fans poll compiled by Dana Byerly, HRF Co-founder (but just #5 by yours truly). Horseplayers and/or racing enthusiasts (is there a difference?) alike enjoy the puzzles found "Where the surf meets the turf, down at old Del Mar..."

Fair warning, the Polytrack in place is not the same quality that was installed at Keeneland in Kentucky, Chicago's Arlington Park, or even Canada's jewel Woodbine Race Course. Those facilities didn't cut corners and put in the top grade of Polytrack, called "Elite" by the Martin Collins Group. Listed first among the three possible incarnations, and in place at the synthetic venture's partner race track, Keeneland, this must be the highest grade of Polytrack. Del Mar, like Turfway Park in Kentucky, installed the "Classic" version which is listed third on the Polytrack depth chart. See the list here.

The major difference: "Elite" has jelly cable to provide increased cushion while "Classic" does not.

So, remember ANIMAL KINGDOM? He was essentially a turf horse who won the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He was classy enough to win the Derby, run on dirt.

What does this mean for people interested in following Del Mar racing?

Generally, races on the main track tend to be run like turf races.

The same thing that afflicted maintenance of Del Mar's dirt main track makes maintenance of Polytrack challenging. The weather is cool, often damp, in the morning. This will often cause the track to play tighter and morning workouts to be faster than some afternoon races. The onshore flow, producing cool temps and clouds, often burns off by the 2:00 post time. This tends to cause the synthetic main track to become looser and tiring. The Polytrack website proposes a maintenance schedule, but on big racing days expect the maintenance crew to be pushed by notable trainers to water more liberally on hot days which will have the effect of tightening the course.

Horses that have run well on the course and appear in contending form, often win again at Del Mar. I suggest reading Daily Racin Form's Del Mar primer rife with statistics that are more detailed than I could ever post.

Tread lightly early in the meeting...see how the track is playing and maintaining. If you have the time and want to have a winning edge, check the weather a.m. and p.m. for the Del Mar adjacent Solano Beach area and make note of temperature and relative humidity.

Also, if you can identify the class standout that is in good form, they are generally wise to play with instead of against. Horses like ZENYATTA or SMILING TIGER, have proven that they can run on just about anything, including Del Mar's Polytrack.

Want a more consistent wagering option: play turf races around two turns.

Expect turf times to be a little slower than expected the first two to three weeks. This is generally the case with any track offering grass racing as there has been a long hiatus to grow a lush lawn. As the meet winds down, the course gets chewed up and becomes more like a pool table where miles are routinely run in about 1:34 or less. Stakes races, particularly the Del Mar Mile, are run in the 1:33 range or less.

Speaking of turf racing, the opening day feature is the Oceanside Stakes for 3y.o.'s going a mile on the lawn. In years past, there were so many entered and on the grounds that the racing secretary would split the race into two exciting editions. Alas, this is 2011 and the horse population is low (or is it that horsemen are more choosy with spotting horses?). This is the beginning of a three race series that includes the La Jolla S. (G.2) and Del Mar Derby (G.2).

An angle that has been working quite well after the Triple Crown season is playing back horses who were out of their element on Derby or Preakness day. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE won a stakes at the Hollywood Park stand after nearly running last in the Derby. Absent today, I'd expect him to be part of the La Jolla field unless Baffert ships him for bigger fish and purses in a race like the Secretariat at Arlington Park.

MR. COMMONS fits that same criteria only he wasn't disgraced as badly by the Preakness doings as 'INTERLUDE was in the Derby, despite finishing third to that foe in the SA Derby. MR> COMMONS annihilated maidens in his lone turf effort down the hill at Santa Anita. Then came a thoroughly professional win from close range at a mile on the dirt and the usual Derby dreaming. He lacked earning for the Derby, so the Preakness was the Triple Crown target.

John Shirreffs has the son of former BC Mile winner ARTIE SCHILLER pointed to the right race on the right surface. He won't offer much value, but he's the one to beat.

Good luck and blog at ya'll soon!

Father's Day Foray: Hollywood Park rekindles the fanatic.

2011-06-19T22:53:00.001-07:00

It will be a day or two before I go through all the pictures and formulate vignettes to do the Father's Day trip justice. In short, what looked like a ho-hum card on paper became a "winning" day all around. The highlights about which I'll expand upon:
1. Joe Talamo booted home three winners, two for Mike Puype, but most thrilling was likely SCHIAPARELLI.
2. SCHIAPARELLI is the spittin' image of her dam, CAMBIOCORSA, a monster in her day on the grass, particularly on the downhill @ Santa Anita, and by Horse of the Year GHOSTZAPPER.
3. Mike Puype, bagged two as I'd mentioned, none as huge as big-time bred SCHIAPARELLI...it's almost as good to be Puype as it is Bob Baffert.
4. Bob Baffert...this guy can really train. My son remarked that both of Baffert's Desert Stormer Stakes entrants looked best (is he getting a better eye than ol' AmCap?). I said all of Baffert's horses are magnificently turned out and usually run to their looks. His record on the day: 5-3-1-1 but the stakes win with IRISH GYPSY may have been overshadowed by juvenile NIGHT TIDE, whose debut win earned a confident "thumbs up" from Baffert, while making his way to the winner's circle, to the TVG talent Matt Carrothers and Christina Olivares.

4. NIGHT TIDE was everything Baffert advertised via twitter:
@Midnightlute Bob Baffert I have a really nice two year old running Sunday at Hollywood Park. His name is Night Tide. Could be a star. (I could use help figuring out how to embed tweets into the blog, thanks to anyone who can help!).

He and Martin Garcia ran down a very game A TOE BY THREE, trained by Peter Miller, and ridden by crafty old vet Patrick Valenzuela. Jill Baffert, when asked if we were "lookin at lucky" replied, "I wish...I hope!" One thing's certain, NIGHT TIDE seems just as professional after one race as the '09 Juvenile champ was in his debut win.

5. When it comes to tough beats, how about WILD ROSE's troubled 2nd in her North American debut to Baffert's TORO BONITO? I'm sure Tyler Baze and Bill Morey, Jr. had some commentary about the ride that found trouble into the stretch, on the rail, despite the outside post and just six horses competing.

I'm sure there's more I've left out, but it's time for bed. Back at ya' real soon this week!

Memorial Day Stakes Musings

2011-05-30T11:23:00.000-07:00

Happy Memorial Day!!! Thank you to all the men and women serving in our armed forces for the freedoms they help us enjoy. Also, to the families of servicemen and servicewomen who've lost their lives for America...I remember and thank you.

Churchill Downs
There's a class standout, SASSY IMAGE, in the Winning Colors but she's back quick for horses these days (23 days), at a trip shorter than she's run since '09, off a career-best effort. I think she's beatable. STARLITE STARBRITE holds a tactical advantage and speed always moves a horse up against seemingly classier competition. Ignore her last two, on synthetic and turf. Those were failed experiments which helped enhance her stamina. She's back at her best game, short on fast dirt.

Belmont Park
The Met Mile is wide open and I couldn't talk anyone off any horse. I settled on TIZWAY, tossing the Charles Town Classic that was contested on a sloppy bullring that's far from his best trip/footing. He's back where he's done the most good in his career, one turn on a fast dirt at Belmont Park. Finishing 3rd last year to QUALITY ROAD in the Met Mile, and following that up with a win in the G.II Kelso at this trip, qualifies him as a legitimate win contender in a field lacking a superstar. He probably wasn't fully cranked in the GP Handicap in his '11 debut vs. TACKLEBERRY and SOARING EMPIRE who had race fitness edges.

I guess WINTER MEMORIES is as close to a superstar we'll anticipate today. She can move forward off that Appalachian win, is as conisistent as she can be after just 4 career starts. The Belmont Park Widener course was made to order for her style. Bred in the purple, she is the type that could develop into a legitimate BC Filly & Mare Turf contender. There are two others, MYSTICAL STAR and NAPLES BAY, who I believe we'll hear from in stakes company today and as they mature. However, with a legitimate favorite who's run well on any course and has a right to move forward, I believe they'll have to settle for minor awards today.

Lone Star Park
This is a brilliant day of racing for the Texas track. Headlining the festivities is the signature race, the G.III Lone Star Park H. where G.I Santa Anita H. winner GAME ON DUDE lands. He's coming off a bid/fade run in the sloppy Charles Town Classic (G.III) run on a bullring around three turns. The son of AWESEOME AGAIN will appreciate the small field, fast track, and tactical advantage over main foe/G.III Texas Mile winner THISKYHASNOLIMIT.

WASTED TEARS may be the most prohibitive, likely winner of the day nationwide. She lays over the G.III Ouija Board field on class and speed. The only question is what shape she's in after the layoff, but from what I've heard and read she's gonna fire huge.

There are many more non-graded events I encourage you to chew on. You're sure to find value on the Lone Star undercard.

Hollywood Park
The Gamely is wide open, comprised of a majority of fillies and mares taking turns beating each other. I'll take a shot with a new face at this class level, DUBAWI HEIGHTS, who's got a tremendous stretch kick that Rosario can time to perfection...even better than the one that stablemate TURNING TOP has shown. TURNING TOP slipped inexplicably two back handing the Santa Ana to MALIBU PIER. She was subpar last out, absent of her usual stretch kick. Something seems awry to me. MALIBU PIER runs her best every time out but I believe it's been good enough vs. a competive bunch lacking a superstar. COZI ROSI rounds out the three "usual suspects" with credentials to win.

The supporting feature is the Los Angeles H. and it appears to set up for a closer. I'd prefer AMAZOMBIE, but I feel he'll get caught in a box if he sits behind speed that'll tire or he'll get weary if trying to go gate-to-wire against a speedy field. I'll take a shot w/ SUPREME SUMMIT whose return run was solid after a dull '11 debut. Puype is training as good as any conditioner in the nation and Bejarano's a great commodity in the saddle. Honorable mention to M ONE RIFLE, former G.I Malibu S. winner, who returned to Hollywood Park with a sizzling win in an overnight event after a speed/fade 4th in AMAZOMBIE's G.II Potrero Grande win. If Chantal Sutherland can use her soft hands to coax him along just off the contested pace I envision, she can wait to unleash him like she did last out at the head of the lane before the deep closers make contact.

Enjoy the rest of your day!!!

TRIPLE CROWN NOTEBOOK – Two down, no crown, no renown

2011-05-23T06:53:00.000-07:00

SHACKLEFORD outlasted ANIMAL KINGDOM in the slowest Preakness renewal since 1993. The Triple Crown drought extends to 33 years and thoroughbred racing falls out of the sports world consciousness.

Saturday, after the Preakness, I read many an opinion on Twitter about which equine is the best among the 3y.o. crop of 2011. Forgotten was infirm 2010 Juvenile Champion UNCLE MO. It was all about ANIMAL KINGDOM, winner of the 137th Kentucky Derby, SHACKLEFORD, and then “the rest” were clumped together in the informal consensus. The Dale Romans trainee was mentioned as one of the top sophomores based on his 13-1 upset in the 136th Preakness Stakes on Saturday. Unfortunately, those assertions are true for the 3y.o.’s currently contesting the Triple Crown races.

When I consider the two American Classics in the books for 2011, their internal splits and/or final times among the slowest ever in each race, I lament how the breed has regressed in my lifetime.

I wrote earlier last week about the obstacles that ANIMAL KINGDOM would need to overcome in the Preakness considering his “turf-like” Kentucky Derby win. I also wrote, before the race on Twitter, to @sidfernando that I would be keying him underneath in exactas (unfortunately for me it was under the wrong horses). While I thought ANIMAL KINGDOM would be compromised by the different circumstances of the Preakness and was an unlikely winner, I would have felt better about losing my wagers had he gotten up by a ½ length as opposed to losing by that margin. The loss by the Graham Motion trainee cost the industry the chance to hype a potential Triple Crown on all sports outlets for the next three weeks. I’m sorry he’s not much better at this point than MINE THAT BIRD proved in 2009.

I was young enough not to have known the “live” excitement that was SECRETARIAT in 1973 or the brilliance of SEATTLE SLEW in ‘77. However, I was old enough to have experienced every thrilling race televised in 1978 during the glorious rivalry between the last Triple Crown winner, AFFIRMED, and his nemesis ALYDAR. Since then, there have been 11 failed Triple Crown bids.

Perhaps comparing this year’s 3y.o.’s to those that competed in Triple Crown events over the last 40 years, give or take a few, isn’t fair. Performance enhancing medications were in use during the last four decades in horse racing (as they were in many sports). BIG BROWN and CURLIN were two recent Classic winners, the former a failed Triple Crown bidder, who were documented recipients of performance enhancers. What isn’t known about that period of time is the extent to which racehorses through the years had their careers helped or hurt by them.

Those drugs are no longer allowed as part of the thoroughbred’s approved racing pharmacy. In light of this, would SHACKLEFORD’s final time of 1:56.47 for the 1 3/16 miles on a “fast” main track be more fairly compared with pre-1971 results on a similar surface? If not, consider how he would compare to these “name” horses of the last few years. SHACKLEFORD would have been beaten by champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY by five lengths last year, 2009 Horse of the Year RACHEL ALEXANDRA by seven, and champion BIG BROWN by more than eight in ‘08. In 2007, CURLIN’s thrilling nose defeat of STREET SENSE would have placed SHACK 15 lengths in arrears of those two champions!!!

In hindsight it seems that CANONERO II’s 1:54 flat clocking in 1971 was the signal that times, literally and figuratively, were a-changin’. Before that, only the great NASHUA, shaded 1:55 with a final time of 1:54 3/5.

I understand the argument from racing purists that final time is not the be-all-end-all definition of greatness. Final and fractional times are certainly pieces of the puzzle determining the quality of the racehorse. However, if it was unimportant there would be no need for timers at any sporting event in which there is a beginning and end. Trainers and owners would not need stopwatches or timing from professional clockers to justify their visual impressions of morning workouts. Buyers wouldn’t care what time the juveniles ran a furlong in pre-auction breezes. While of no significance to the outcome of a tennis match, a clock devoted to the length of the match is even ensconced at the back of the center court of every professional tournament, and some adjacent courts of major events.

When it comes to horse racing’s declining ranking in the sports landscape, ufortunately time is of the essence to save the game.

So how do the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winners of 2011 stack up on class?

ANIMAL KINGDOM became the first Spiral Stakes winner to capture the Kentucky Derby. That qualifying effort was the only graded stakes notch on his holster before his Derby win. Not exactly a glowing resume, considering the accomplishments of the memorable Derby winners. The question of class was partly the reason he was sent off at 20-1.

SHACKLEFORD held on gamely for 4th in the Derby. He should have considering how he walked the dog on the lead. Finishing 2nd in the G.I Florida Derby after setting a fast pace, to first-time G.I winner and G.III Holy Bull Stakes winner DIALED IN, qualified SHACK for the Derby. A winner of just a maiden and allowance race dared not only to sniff, but wear, the blanket of Black Eyed Susans. This result confirms the field was suspect at best. I’ve learned from reading noted handicappers like Jim Quinn that Grade I winning horses win Grade I races. In the absence of that kind, a G.I and G.II winner or a dual G.II winner are considered legitimate contenders in G.I races.

UNCLE MO’s terrible winter and spring preparations, along with a mysterious ailment caused him to scratch from the Derby at the eleventh hour. Losing the dual G.I winner and Juvenile Champion really cast a huge question mark on the first jewel of the Crown. UNCLE MO was 3rd in the G.I Wood Memorial despite being sick.

When I reconsider what Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher may have been thinking in the week leading up to the race, I can’t blame them for waiting so long to declare the champ. In hindsight, it’s possible that odd-horse-out SWAY AWAY would not have fared much better in the Derby considering his poor Preakness effort. Also 80% of UNCLE MO, just like KOBE BRYANT or MICHAEL JORDAN with the flu, may have been enough to win the Derby. His defection left ARCHARCHARCH, COMMA TO THE TOP and DIALED in, all three winners of a G.I and G.III, as the class “standouts.” Two of them were injured during the race and DIALED IN was being trained like he was losing air in a tire that couldn’t be replaced. None of the three would fit the strict criteria of a legitimately qualified Derby entrant.

Whether evaluated on class or time, the current Triple Crown 3y.o.’s have allowed horse racing to be distanced further from the general sports fan’s awareness and the sports media’s eye. The Belmont Stakes, while it may be a competitive race, won’t change a thing.

PREAKNESS STAKES – It may simply be a matter of heart.

2011-05-21T10:46:00.000-07:00

A day after Randall Mario Poffo, aka. Randy “Macho Man” Savage, died of a heart attack MUCHO MACHO MAN, trained by heart transplant survivor Kathy Ritvo, attempts to win the 136th Preakness Stakes and pay tribute to his namesake and former professional wrestler and complete his conditioner’s remarkable recovery.

Sometimes conventional wisdom can go out the window. That may be the case in the Preakness Stakes today, the second leg of the Triple Crown in which ANIMAL KINGDOM will go favored. The 20-1 win of ANIMAL KINGDOM in the 137th Kentucky Derby two weeks ago made the Team Valor runner the first turf/synthetic reared horse to wear the roses. Obviously, while many experts extolled his virtue their action wasn’t enough to make him one of the top three wagering choices.

He was a saver win/place wager for me based on the fact AmCapper’s family visited the theme park of the same name at the Disneyworld Resort. All the pre-race study landed me on ARCHARCHARCH who suffered an injury and finished far back.

Last year, LOOKIN AT LUCKY was the choice and was anything but the suggestion of his name when he drew the one hole and was eliminated before they ran a ¼ mile after being severely bumped twice. He would go on to win the Preakness Stakes and be voted Champion Male 3y.o.

Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than have a solid opinion go by the wayside because of circumstance…particularly on the Triple Crown races where big fields and bad luck play into the results.

Last night when I turned on the computer, front and center was a headline informing that professional wrestler Randy “Macho Man” Savage died of a heart attack. The thought immediately ran through my mind…MUCHO MACHO MAN runs in the Preakness Stakes for heart transplant survivor Kathy Ritvo.
Coincidence? Perhaps this is more fate than objectivity.

At a time when horseplayers, industry insiders, and fans are lamenting the frailty of the breed MUCHO MACHO MAN’s fortitude is staring us in the face.

I was on Twitter last night with @Ghostzapper and @DylanTWM who both offered their support for the Florida bred grandson of HOLY BULL. I stated I thought it was too much, too soon for late-developing MUCHO MACHO MAN. At the quick turnaround, for a big colt who’s still not officially three (his true birthdate is after the Belmont Stakes!), I believed these circumstances could stunt his development mentally and may physically delay his maturation as the year goes on.

After considering the sign that Randy Savage’s death means, I reconsidered MUCHO MACHO MAN’s chances in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

There’s no doubt he’s been the most sturdy and consistent Derby Trail and Triple Crown competitor. The son of MACHO UNO will be making his 10th career start, second only in the Preakness to rank outsider ISN’T HE PERFECT’s 12 starts. He was 2nd to TO HONOR AND SERVE in both the Nashua S. (G.III) and Remsen S. (G.II) to finish 2010. Those efforts came off a freshening after a three race series began his career and culminated in a route maiden special weight win at Monmouth Park.

Kathy Ritvo gave her colt just two months between races, bringing him back in DIALED IN’s Holy Bull (G.III). MUCHO MACHO MAN was a lukewarm favorite and part of a hot pace, faster than any raw times he’d been part of in his career, and tired to 4th but was not disgraced. Rajiv Maraj rode him like he was 3-5 and miles the best. In hindsight, not his best ride.

Ritvo removed the blinkers and MUCHO MACHO MAN rated off a slow pace to win the Risen Star (G.II) from just off the pace, holding off SANTIVA (6th in the Derby after a terribly unlucky Blue Grass run). He came back five weeks later in the Lousiana Derby (G.II) and was unlucky to lose a shoe after an eventful start, partly the reason for his lack of kick in a third place finish after getting to the leader at the stretch call. Once again, he was game as can be.

In the Derby, he had a relatively clean trip but could not quicken like ANIMAL KINGDOM. However, he nearly passed NEHRO for 2nd. He returned to a 99 Beyer Speed Figure (initially earned in the Remsen), 4th highest in the field behind ANIMAL KINGDOM’s 103 (Derby win), FLASHPOINT’s 102 (Hutcheson win) and SWAY AWAY’s 101 (San Vicente 2nd to THE FACTOR). If you believe the Derby winner can regress and the other two are sprinters vulnerable at this trip, MUCH MACHO MAN makes a ton of sense.

According to the Ragozin Insider he made a small move to a new top (5 ¾) and has paired tops on short rest before on that scale. Here’s Bob Ehalt’s report of Len Friedman’s comment from Thoroghbred Times: “Of the five coming back on just two weeks rest from their Churchill Downs race, Freidman said Mucho Macho Man stands the best chance of duplicating his performance in the Derby. Mucho Macho Man posted a ¾-point new top with 5 ¾ and has been able to pair tops before off short rest.”

There may be faster Preakness entrants than MUCHO MACHO MAN. There may be horses bred better for a classic distance. Clearly there are more physically mature/older contenders based on his June foaling month.

In this case, there may be signs that heart is a reason to like MUCHO MACHO MAN to run well and possibly win the Preakness Stakes.

PREAKNESS PICKS
Heart = MUCHO MACHO MAN
Head = SWAY AWAY – ANIMAL KINGDOM – FLASHPOINT/MUCHO MACHO MAN/ASTROLOGY

Enjoy the day!

PREAKNESS STAKES NOTEBOOK – A Look Back at the Derby

2011-05-17T06:41:00.000-07:00

ANIMAL KINGDOM was a clear winner on the first Saturday in May; Will it matter in the Preakness that he didn’t “win” any of the splits among the top 10 finishers?

The 137th Kentucky Derby was run more like the Virginia Derby. Thus, it was no surprise in hindsight that a colt reared on synthetics and turf races, with a pedigree that screams grass, carried Barry Irwin’s Team Valor colors to the wire ahead of his dirt-reared and bred classmates.

ANIMAL KINGDOM’s stiffest test in his Triple Crown quest figures to be the upcoming Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. Often, a turf oriented horse can produce one good race on dirt only to flop severely on the main track second time around. When factoring in that the pace of the Derby at the ½ mile (48.63) and ¾ mile (1:13.40) calls was the slowest since 1947, I question what kind of race the son of LEROIDESANIMAUX will produce if he’s forced to hold his position 5-10 lengths off more realistic, perhaps much faster fractions.

Dissecting the Derby chart to determine if ANIMAL KINGDOM’s win was legitimate or fool’s gold, I was surprised to find that despite his seemingly dominant win, he did not produce the fastest ¼ mile fraction at any point in the race. The March foal from a Brazilian-bred sire and German-bred dam stayed within striking distance without expending much energy after a ½ mile was run in a perfectly grassy :48.63.

Then, ANIMAL KINGDOM produced two successively faster splits from the ½ mile to mile marks just like good turf horses do and finished faster than any of the contenders within striking distance at the 1/8 pole. The Derby winner proved his worth on the first Saturday in May by running the most complete race, “winning” the final ½ mile in :47.54 and a final clocking of 2:02.04.

After the daylight winner, the Derby field was pretty well bunched. This is usually the case with turf races, not the Kentucky Derby on dirt. Less than two lengths separated NEHRO in second and BRILLIANT SPEED in sixth. There were less than four lengths separating DIALED IN in 8th and 12th place STAY THIRSTY.

Among the prospective Preakness entrants, Derby pacesetter SHACKLEFORD could be joined by DANCE CITY and FLASHPOINT to legitimize the pace and stretch the expected capacity field. They could force ANIMAL KINGDOM to run much harder early to stay in contact than he did in the Derby, limiting his late energy.

ANIMAL KINGDOM’s Kentucky Derby win, a balance of tactical speed and stamina, appears to me a better predictor of success at the 1 ½ miles of the Belmont Stakes where the pace is slower than the Derby was run. Should the Graham Motion trainee overcome significant obstacles in the second leg of the Triple Crown, ANIMAL KINGDOM would stand the strongest chance of any Triple Crown near-misses since AFFIRMED last sealed the three race sequence in 1978. As usual, the Preakness will determine whether the Derby winner is deserving of mention with the greatest horses of all time or relegated to the list of Derby winners in the right place at the right time.

Second jewel first…

Life...lost.

2011-05-10T23:09:00.000-07:00

Goodbye Michael Baze.

Through my lens and exchanges of pre-post race comments, this young man's life is truly a loss for horse racing.

Kind.

Engaging.

Professional.

My prayers and condolences are for Michael's spirit and to the surviving Baze clan.

KENTUCKY DERBY 137 – Things that make you go “Hummm”

2011-05-07T15:17:00.000-07:00

At a time when horseplayers are digesting plentiful statistics and rationalizing video replays, there are some things about the 2011 Derby that make you go “Hummm” and provide casual fans with reasons to bet on the most exciting two minutes in sports.

How often have you been approached by a co-worker, friend, or relative about a horse they are thinking about betting in the Kentucky Derby? If it was 2008 Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD, were you able to find a redeeming quality or did you talk them off the hit of the century that would have made them a fan for life?

I’ll try to provide some information that you can expound as positive virtues for every horse in the wide open field.

ARCHARCHARCH
He is by ARCH, sire of 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Champion Older Male BLAME who adored the Churchill Downs main track.

Jinks Fires and son-in-law Jon Court are less fortunate, but equally committed versions of 1986 Derby winning trainer and jockey Charlie Whittingham and Bill Shoemaker.

BRILLIANT SPEED
The Live Oak Plantation colt won a major G.I Derby prep at 1 1/8 miles like another son of DYNAFORMER did back in 2006…BARBARO.

Bet Charlotte Weber’s “other” Derby nominee who made the gate at 30-1 morning line, unlike vacationing TO HONOR AND SERVE who seemed the more logical contender to start the year.

TWICE THE APPEAL
Recant the 2009 story of MINE THAT BIRD, Sunland Park preparation, and hiring Calvin Borel the week before the Derby.

STAY THIRSTY
He’s owned (Mike Repole) and trained (Todd Pletcher) by the most interesting men in the New York horse racing game.

Last year Pletcher’s best horse and Derby favorite ESKENDEREYA did not make the gate, like UNCLE MO won’t this year, but he won with his second stringer SUPER SAVER…enter STAY THIRSTY.

DECISIVE MOMENT
He hasn’t been disgraced by four horses entered today, splitting two of them and finishing second last out in the Spiral.
Grandson of historic sire STORM CAT could become a major pace factor if it rains and the track is rated “off” thanks to a bullet workout in the mud at CD.

COMMA TO THE TOP
Gritty gelding will be ridden by the best jockey that will never be considered the best jockey that’s ever lived.

Won and finished a close 2nd in two G.I races…the saying goes G.I horses win G.I races.

PANTS ON FIRE
Anna Napravnik just proved her ability as the leading rider in wins against legitimate jockeys in Louisiana.

She is trying to become the first woman jockey to win the Derby.

DIALED IN
Nick Zito and Bob LaPenta just missed with last year’s Florida Derby winner and know what to do with a good horse.

He breaks from the post position (#8) that has produced two of the last five Derby winners (BARBARO and MINE THAT BIRD).

Julien Leparoux has ridden him in each career start.

DERBY KITTEN
Is out of a dam by MENIFEE, 2000 Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up, and MENIFEE is by ANNE CAMPBELL, also dam of 1983 Derby runner-up DESERT WINE.

Colt is aptly named to win this race, perhaps fulfilling the prophecy that was written when Ken Ramsey and his staff mated KITTEN’S JOY with BLUSH.

Won the last prep for the Derby, had to wait until the eleventh-hour to be awarded a starting position…perhaps this was meant to be.

TWINSPIRED
Obviously, another mating that was hoped to run at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

MASTER OF HOUNDS
Ship to CD got him away from FRANKEL, the best 3y.o. in training worldwide, so the Derby is a drop in class.

SANTIVA
Was favored at 2-1 in a G.I prep but never got the chance to run because of traffic…horse racing enthusiasts are well versed in the “beaten favorite” angle.

MUCHO MACHO MAN
Fate has smile kindly on his trainer, Kathy Ritvo, who’s alive thanks to a heart transplant. Her colt had bad luck losing a shoe in the Louisiana Derby yet had enough heart to finish a close 3rd.

SCHACKLEFORD
His damsire won the 1991 Kentucky Derby and his namesake was the most famous basketball player to come out of Burbank, CA…he won titles under John Wooden at UCLA.

MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE
His sire was top class on turf and dirt, very fast, balancing his dam’s New Zealand stamina. Trainer Bob Baffert has already won three Derbies and is a Hall of Famer.

ANIMAL KINGDOM
Has the top Daily Racing Form Tomlinson figure for aptitude at the distance and he’s never finished worse than second in his four race career.

SOLDAT
Was the beaten favorite in the G.I Florida Derby but prior to that had won two starts by a combined 12 ¾ lengths including a G.II Derby prep.

NEHRO
Has the two fastest finishes at 1 1/8 miles and gave the impression in both runner-up efforts he’d have defeated the winner if the race was 1 ¼ miles. His jockey (Corey Nakatani) and trainer (Steve Asmussen) are hungry to win a Derby.

WATCH ME GO
The colt won his qualifying race at 43-1 so there’s precedent that he can win when bettors ignore him. He was the beaten favorite in his last race on a track some horses just don’t run well on.

Safe trip to all, good luck!

KENTUCKY DERBY NOTEBOOK: In Search of the Winner (Part 2)

2011-05-04T22:55:00.000-07:00

The revolving door of Derby contenders winning and losing races in 2011 produces the quintessential puzzle to solve for horse racing fans around the world. Next up are two talented colts with turf-oriented pedigrees but G.I dirt successes: ARCHARCHARCH and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE.

The plethora of information for Kentucky Derby 137 and the 2011 Triple Crown makes decisions among the most informative of any race or series of races all year long. I identified the holes in DIALED IN and UNCLE MO in Part 1, the two colts who will vie for Derby favoritism. Will their inflated prices, relative to their recent races, bring the prices down on logical price horses in the second tier on the earnings list? That’s for a later discussion.

In the spirit of sharing opinions about the Kentucky Derby (and to get the contenders and pretenders straight in my head), here are my thoughts to get the conversation started. Read on!

ARCHARCHARCH
This colt has raced every month since a late November debut in which he finished a troubled 2nd going 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs. Jinks Fires has put the son of ARCH in stakes races exclusively since, including a very good maiden breaking win in the Sugar Bowl S. on the cutback to 6 furlongs.

ARCHARCHARCH could be the sturdiest, most reliable horse in the Derby field. He seems to be thriving with more work, each and every giving him strength not present in his prior efforts. His 2011 Kentucky Derby story begins here.

SMARTY JONES STAKES – January 17
Sent off the even-money favorite in a race contested in a dense fog, ARCHARCHARCH did the speed/fade on the sprint/route angle. Jon Court, the trainer’s son-in-law and only jockey ARCHARCHARCH has partnered with in races, rode the colt like he was the second coming of SECRETARIAT that day. I can’t really blame him, whether it was his instincts or that he may have been following orders. ARCHARCHARCH regressed as many developing horses do after a big forward move in start #2. Draw a line through that effort. SECRETARIAT he's not, but I don't think there are any of that kind in this year's event anyway.

SOUTHWEST (G.III) – February 21
How fickle are horseplayers? ARCHARCHARCH, the beaten Smarty Jones S. even-money favorite, went to post at 14-1!!!

He was bounced around a bit going into the first turn while 4w. He settled nicely for Court once in the clear continuing wide on the backside. ARCHARCHARCH was allowed to gain contending position 4w into the far turn while keeping favored J.P.’S GUSTO in a box. The Yagos color-bearer came back to Court within a few strides after the rider took another hold. Allowed to engage for the lead leaving the far turn, Court set ARCHARCHARCH down for the short stretch run and the pair immediately went 2 ½ lengths clear. Clearly tiring, the colt lugged in and bothered the closing favorite in the shadow of the wire, but not enough to warrant a DQ.

ARCHARCHARCH galloped out ahead of the field giving the impression no horse in the Southwest field would love the distance progression more.

REBEL (G.II) – March 12
The story of this race was an uncontested lead for the fastest 3y.o. on the Kentucky Derby trail. ARCHARCHARCH was no match for THE FACTOR.

After getting over how impressive the winner was, examination of ARCHARCHARCH’s effort was reminiscent of a solid run, while losing to CONSOLIDATOR, at 1 1/16 miles by former Derby winner GIACOMO back in 2005.

Court allowed ARCHARCHARCH to make up as much of the stagger as he could during the second ¼ mile without going sub-:23 (they went in :23.14). This pair, a la 2005 Derby winner GIACOMO and Mike Smith, tried to win but couldn’t quicken and sustain against the high cruising speed of a middle distance/sprint sort. Unfortunately, THE FACTOR never came back and ARCHARCHARCH had to settle for 3rd, outrun late for 2nd by one-paced CALEB’S POSSE.

In hindsight, what made this effort most impressive was that ARCHARCHARCH was stressed out and cut up by a caste ALTERNATION before the race. After unloading and reloading, ARCHARCHARCH ran a brave race from the one hole. That makes two races in a row where he persevered despite adverse circumstances. This toughness set him up for a career-best effort.

ARKANSAS DERBY (G.I) – April 16
THE FACTOR was the center of attention. So much so that two colts, J.P.’S GUSTO and DANCE CITY, blew out of the gate in an all-out effort to deny the speedy Bob Baffert-trained colt the lead. This duel relegated ARCHARCHARCH and the rest of the Arkansas Derby field to chasing positions.

Breaking from the 10 hole, Court allowed his steed to find his own position at the rear of the bulky 13 horse field. While far back, ARCHARCHARCH had settled into a nice stamina pace going :24.34 the opening ¼ mile. He quickened to make contact with a :23.39 second ¼, continued to make up ground with a :23.99 third ¼ split, then made that move to take the lead…one that would be the turn run at Churchill Downs which wins so many Kentucky Derbies. ARCHARCHARCH, sent off at 25-1, had enough gas in the tank to hold off a determined NEHRO by a neck.

Don’t think he will like the Derby distance as much as NEHRO? Remember, ARCHARCHARCH lost most of his advantage in the Southwest, wasn’t quick enough to outrun THE FACTOR in the Rebel, yet won a G.I prep at 1 1/8 miles earning his best lifetime speed figure. I believe the Derby distance will be well within his ability and his past performances indicate he’ll be handy enough to gain a winning position. ARCH sired Champion Older Male and BC Classic winner BLAME. That’s enough pedigree for me.

MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE

The son of Breeders’ Cup mile winner WAR CHANT could be the one who takes his sire’s breeding career to the next level. Back in 2000, WAR CHANT won the San Rafael S. (G.III) and finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G.I).

Coming off a fast maiden win after setting a fast pace…

…MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE showed a new dimension in the Santa Anita Derby that only supremely talented horses can produce. He will need to be one-of-a-kind in order to buck the “APOLLO” angle, one that has been true for over a century. Since APOLLO, there has been no Kentucky Derby winner who hasn’t raced as a juvenile. Even CURLIN, for all his freakish talent, could not overcome the lack of foundation at age two in the '07 Derby.

SANTA ANITA DERBY – April 9
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE showed enough tactical speed to be close to a :22.81 opening ¼ by COMMA TO THE TOP. Thereafter he rattled off three consecutive ¼ mile splits between :24.32 and :24.42, using that solid cruising speed to outlast the pacesetter. His final 1/8 in :13.31 won’t have any closer shaking in their horseshoes, but for a tactical runner to show that much kick en route to a 1:48.66 final time is certainly nothing to turn a tail to.

Go back and check the replay…

This Zetcher-owned colt was 4 wide on the clubhouse turn, 4 wide on the far turn and floated 5 wide into the lane, which means he ran about the Preakness distance in a time for 9 furlongs that would make UNCLE MO or DIALED in 8-5 at post time. Factor in as well that Victor Espinoza had to check and shift course when MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE raced greenly behind game but tiring COMMA TO THE TOP. That the Bob Baffert trainee had enough class to re-rally and nip his foe on the line bodes well for his ability to adapt to a normally rough Derby run.

If the Santa Anita Derby has taught us anything, it’s not to count Baffert out at any price.

KENTUCKY DERBY NOTEBOOK: In Search of the Winner (Part 1)

2011-05-02T00:04:00.001-07:00

There has been a revolving door of Derby contenders winning and losing races in 2011 leaving the quintessential puzzle to solve for horse racing fans around the world. First two pieces to consider: UNCLE MO and DIALED IN.

There is a plethora of information for Kentucky Derby 137 and the 2011 Triple Crown, more than for any horse race or series of horse races all year long. This year, as in many renewals, the Kentucky Derby has favorites with question marks which will likely inflate their prices while producing prices too short to ignore bigger blemishes on normally attractive longshots. For conversation sake (and to get the contenders and pretenders straight in my head), here are my thoughts on the top two contenders on the earnings list. By the way, the two contenders most likely to be the post time favorite and second favorite look vulnerable to me. Boxcars, here we come! Read on for the details.

UNCLE MO
I admit this champion colt had me thinking I would see a SEATTLE SLEW kind of Triple Crown run after he throttled the G.I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He ran three times as a juvenile, making uncommonly strong efforts look routine. There was a debut maiden win by daylight, followed by a win going a mile in the G.I Champagne, then he stretched out around two turns and turned away BOYS AT TOSCANOVA like no horse in the 2008 foal crop belonged in his stratosphere.

Turn the page to 2011 and UNCLE MO has been handled with kid gloves instead of as the alpha male of his class. Reports surfaced that he reportedly spent time on a farm this winter, which never happens for a healthy horse in training. There was a missed start in the G.II Fountain of Youth. Then Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher decided to run at Gulfstream Park in the “written-for-‘MO” Timely Writer Stakes that turned into a afternoon work in company. That win came in lieu of trying stablemate BRETHREN in the G.II Tampa Bay Derby. All systems appeared “go” for a break out Wood Memorial run against seemingly overmatched competition. However, reports of ‘MO suffering from a quarter crack and eventually being diagnosed with an active Gastrointestinal Infection (fancy name for stomach flu) were reasons he was a shadow of his juvenile self down the lane at Aqueduct.

TIMELY WRITER STAKES – March 12
We learned absolutely nothing from this race. It was facile because his competition let it play out that way. The field could have come over on a slow-starting UNCLE MO, putting the champ and John Velazquez in a serious bind. The other riders played nice and allowed ‘MO and Johnny V. to come through on the rail to set a pedestrian pace. Even though he finished strong, running the final ¼ in :22.87, this was a great prep if it had come in February or he was going to wheel back quick for the G.II Lousiana Derby (March 26), followed by the G.I Arkansas Derby. The latter two races would have allayed any doubts about UNCLE MO’s readiness to handle the Triple Crown grind. A horse with his on-pace style, no matter how talented, needs to run hard every step of the way in a legitimately paced final prep and in the Kentucky Derby. This just wasn’t enough to give him a satisfactory foundation for what loomed next

WOOD MEMORIAL STAKES – April 9
This prep held true as the end result of Repole and Pletcher’s Derby trail preparations for the champion. Despite the fact UNCLE MO did not have a representative winter/spring campaign, I did not buy in that any horse in the field could defeat UNCLE MO. Learning of his health issues after his third-place finish, I felt like the Wood Memorial was lost by UNCLE MO and not won by TOBY’S CORNER. Even fighting a stomach virus, the son of INDIAN CHARLIE got the final 1/8 in :12.87 despite running his opening ¼ mile 10 lengths faster than he’d traveled during the first ¼ mile in the Timely Writer.

KENTUCKY DERBY PROJECTION
UNCLE MO has had a very truncated prep season which will likely be his undoing the final ¼ mile of the Kentucky Derby. If it wasn’t 1 ¼ miles during a Derby cavalry charge, I’d be picking him on top. From running hard for only a ¼ mile in the Timely Writer to being hounded at a decent clip for at least 5 furlongs and finishing out the 1 1/8 miles, UNCLE MO would have been tough right back at 9 furlongs. That said, the weight of his Eclipse Award-winning talent and a healthier body figure to make life a living hell for the pace players in this year’s Derby.

The staunchest of UNCLE MO supporters will enjoy a price in the 4-1/9-2 range like STREET SENSE was in 2007. Unfortunately, the best I can see him finishing is a game 3rd on class alone a la CONGAREE in 2001 or AFLEET ALEX in 2005. If he’s good enough to overcome his preparation and the twenty horse cavalry, I’ll hope SANTIVA runs along for 2nd, cash my future wager exacta, and root for a 12th Triple Crown winner.

DIALED IN
Much like UNCLE MO, DIALED IN turned in two remarkable performances to start his career. Robert LaPenta and Nick Zito were understandably excited about the future of the son of Horse of the Year MINESHAFT. There was a debut maiden win from dead last going 6 ½ furlongs at Churchill Downs in November, followed by a brief break and a last-to-first score in the G.III Holy Bull on January 30.

HOLY BULL (G.III) – January 30
Despite the legitimate final time of 1:35.19 in the Holy Bull, I was not convinced that a colt forced to overcome a :26.06 opening ¼ mile fraction would have any legitimate shot at catching more tactical and equally talented competition. I did find his internal 6 furlongs in 1:09.13 very impressive and my belief in DIALED IN as a Met Mile/Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile type of contender was developed.

Allowance – March 6
That reasoning came true when he lost an allowance race as the 1-5 favorite against older horses like stablemate and winner EQUESTRIO. Despite being close to a dawdling pace, it took a severe duck out by EQUESTRIO to make the margin of loss look better on DIALED IN’s resume. For a closer like this to have a legitimate shot in the Florida Derby, let alone in the Kentucky Derby, he’d have to improve over his final 5 furlong clocking of 1:01 and 1/5 after getting the first 6 furlongs in a pedestrian 1:14 1/5.

FLORIDA DERBY (G.I) – April 3
This race was just another false type of prep race which seemed to me the order of the year along the Triple Crown trail. Horses like SOLDAT and FLASHPOINT did not choose to use their tactical speed, leaving the dirty work to SHACKLEFORD and pace presser TO HONOR AND SERVE. The former, a 68-1 longshot, reverted to the pace style that resulted in an allowance win in January and forced the lightly prepped TO HONOR AND SERVE into submission. SHACKLEFORD could not stay the final 1/8 allowing DIALED IN to lope along for the life-and-death win.

Once again, I did not see the acceleration from DIALED IN that he demonstrated in his maiden win and in his Holy Bull score. I’ll use LaPenta’s and Zito’s ICE BOX, the 2010 Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, as a comparison to 2011 Florida Derby and Holy Bull hero DIALED IN:
Horse: DIALED IN ICE BOX
Race: Florida Derby ‘11 Florida Derby ‘10
1st ¼ :25.10 :25.51
2nd ¼ :23.35 :22.75
3rd ¼ :24.28 :24.00
4th ¼ :25.75 :24.33
Final 1/8:12.99 :12.60
Final 5 furlongs 1:01.62 1:00.93

I understand that it’s difficult to compare raw times because these races were run a year apart and the tracks could have been very different. However, ICE BOX demonstrated superior acceleration in the second 1/4 of his win while demonstrating much better stamina the second ½ mile when compared to DIALED IN.

KENTUCKY DERBY PROJECTION
While I would love to share Nick Zito’s infectious enthusiasm, I’ve got the sneaking suspicion DIALED IN won’t be nimble enough to extract himself from trouble in the bulky field without losing momentum, nor will he have the stamina necessary to run down more tactical contenders. I also had concern over Zito’s light a.m. preparation before the Florida Derby, and I still have that feeling today. There are only two 4 furlong works listed since the Florida Derby and they came 12 days apart. By contrast, the work spacing was every nine days prior to the Holy Bull. I believe he rounds out the bottom rung of the superfecta at best.

So, I’ve effectively eliminated the top two probable favorites in Kentucky Derby 137 from win or exacta consideration. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them life and death just to hit the board.

I’m going to continue price shopping. Will “Part 2” featuring ARCHARCHARCH, COMMA TO THE TOP, TOBY’S CORNER, and PANTS ON FIRE yield my winning selection? Tune in tomorrow for the next installment.

Santa Anita Park Closes - Hope for a Cure Springs Eternal

2011-04-18T21:59:00.000-07:00

The San Juan Capistrano provided a throw-back ending while many give freely and walk "On Track to Beat Cancer"

On closing day, STREETS OF HEAVEN closed out a five race winter/spring campaign. The 6y.o. $16,000 claimer, a son of STREET CRY out of the ALYSHEBA mare VERMONT CONNECTION, had the distinction of being part of the Opening Day card finishing 4th beaten just a neck, as well as Closing Day's penultimate race. Claimed in three of his five starts, it was under the care of Michael Pender, best known as the conditioner for graded stakes turf performer JERANIMO, and the expertise of journeyman Martin Pedroza that STREETS OF HEAVEN notched his only win of the meet.

The meet concluded with Rafael Bejarano aboard JUNIPER PASS doing his best impression of Johnny Longden on GEORGE ROYAL getting up in the final stride to defeat 16-1 longshot IMPONENTE PURSE with Chantal Sutherland. After the "about" 1 3/4 miles covering every inch of the turf course, the 1-2 finishers were separated by just a nose.

However, the most inspiring moment of the meeting came without parimutual wagering, without equines. A throng of people stayed after the final race became "official."

HRTV host Peter Lurie emceed "On Track to Beat Cancer." and Sutherland, trainer Carla Gaines, and actress/CHRB commissioner Bo Derek led the group up the tunnel and onto the main track. Jockeys Rafael Bejarano, Victor Espinoza, and Martin Pedroza were also on hand.

Trainers Craig Dollase, Gary Mandella, and John Shirreffs were part of the crowd. It truly was touching to walk down the Santa Anita stretch to support the City of Hope among cancer survivors and people supporting the fight against cancer.

I began giving blood at the Michael Amini Transfusion Medicine Center at the City of Hope more than two years ago. A client at the clinic where I work contracted acute leukemia. With identical blood type, I was able to provide him with blood and platelets. Unfortunately, he succumbed to the rapidly spreading disease after just six months. In honor of him, I vowed to continue donating for similarly afflicted people.

One day while giving blood I was shocked to learn that blood supply at the well known oncology center is desperately low. In fact, City of Hope spends millions of dollars every month to purchase blood from blood banks to help treat the many patients at the Duarte, California hospital.

If any of you have been touched in any way by cancer, I implore you to make donations to City of Hope or a cancer center near you. You can find the City of Hope donation page here.

SANTA ANITA DERBY – Is the field talented or depleted?

2011-04-08T03:14:00.000-07:00

The Thursday declaration of morning line favorite PREMIER PEGASUS, along with the February injury to TAPIZAR, makes this year’s Santa Anita Derby the most wide open affair since TIAGO’s 29-1 upset in 2007.

***SEE THOROFAN'S HANDICAPPER'S CORNER FOR THE ENTIRE POST***
Stop back here to leave me a comment, I want to know what you think!

ANTHONY'S CROSS

JAYCITO

As Easy As ABC, um, CTHA?

2011-03-30T22:29:00.000-07:00

A divorce among owners and trainers along with an ugly custody battle over a whimpering industry is not what's best for California thoroughbred racing.

The Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC) have come under scrutiny by vocal owners, like Jerry Jamgotchian, over the past six months because of alleged mishandling of funds. Arnold Zetcher, horse owner and former President & CEO of Talbots, has stepped down as chairman before his term was half finished. He served in that capacity since July 2010. A winner of the Finance World CEO of the Year award in 1995, volunteering for the TOC job was apparently more than Zetcher had bargained for. This was his TOC bio statement:

"I believe very strongly in California racing and, as I did back in 2000, believe that it should be the best in the world. today, there is a good deal of uncertainty in our industry, especially in California. If I can use my business and management background to help establish stability in our industry, that would be my number one goal. Rather than worrying about whether there will be a future, we should focus on doing all we can to deliver a world-class product to our fans. And our owners, who provide the major part of the funding for our sport, must be recognized for their contribution."

In his place at the TOC steps Jack Owens, former Executive Vice President and General Counsel of the E. & J. Gallo Winery. Here is his opening salvo:

“As an owner of 30 years,” said Owens, “I am grateful that there is an organization dedicated to the advancement of owners’ business interests in the industry, comprised of good people who volunteer their time as a public service to the industry, and backed up by an experienced and dedicated staff. As owners, we need this kind of representation, and we need to preserve continuity in the TOC, given its track record of achievement and the need for an organization to protect owners’ rights.”

Did Zetcher, or has Owens, truly grasped the TOC Mission and Objectives? You can judge for yourself by reading the original document or just peruse the objectives (below):

OBJECTIVES

The overall purpose of TOC is to provide effective leadership to the Thoroughbred racing industry in California. Among its objectives are:
1. assuring competent representation of California Thoroughbred owners in its negotiations with racing associations and before regulatory and legislative bodies, while expanding membership involvement in TOC's activities;
2. improving the economics of horse ownership, through:
a. fair tax policies which eliminate the discriminatory tax burdens on Thoroughbred owners, which will free up additional purse revenues;
b. promoting expanded horse racing wagering opportunities, through added simulcasting, phone betting and Internet betting;
c. supporting marketing programs to better sell horseracing to the public with the purpose of increasing track attendance and participation as well as revenue;
d. developing other revenue sources, such as sponsorships; and
e. developing cost efficiencies.
3. assuring efficient simulcasting while preserving and improving live racing in the northern and southern regions of California;
4. improving the quality of simulcast production, utilizing the talents of skills of TOC members with television and film production experience.
5. increasing purses while assuring a fair distribution between stakes and overnights and all other categories of races;
6. supporting the development of national centralized marketing programs to increase fan involvement throughout the country.
7. improving marketing and sales programs to improve bottom line profitability, using the personal expertise of individuals owners;
8. promoting the integrity of the game, acting as a watchdog with respect to the fair administration of the rules of racing and the modification of such rules when they enhance the games integrity;
9. communicating regularly with its member s on TOC's activities; soliciting membership input on the direction of TOC's policies and activities;
10. attracting new owners, through various programs such as horse courses and seminars, as well as providing more sophisticated programs for experienced owners;
11. pursuing policies to improve the quality of California's breeding programs, with the purpose of improving the overall quality of California's racing programs;
12. creating a coalition of "horsemen", coordinating the efforts of various segments of the industry, including owners, trainers, breeders, jockeys, veterinarians, farriers, etc., as well as other groups and individuals impacting the industry toward the realization of common goals.

Approved by TOC Board: February 5, 1998

Enter Roger Licht and the newly formed California Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (CTHA) to challenge the TOC as the owners' official voice in the Golden State. What is their agenda? Not to disband the TOC (yet), but to pressure the TOC membership into allowing more owner/trainer representation on the TOC board of directors.

Here are the new group's other gripes:

- “fail to disclose the receipt of in excess of $1 million from NTRA”; 
- “refuse a unique opportunity to secure concessions from the Indians, when the Indians were seeking renew of their compacts”; 
- “spend in excess of $1 million (of horsemen’s money) in an effort to find a group seeking to purchase Santa Anita”; 
- “hold all meetings behind closed doors”; 
- “disenfranchise owner/trainers”; 
- “condone and encourage wagers that result in handle declines”; 
- “lack of support for Northern California racing”; 
- “veto contractual opportunities with Australia”; 
- “failure to respond to the horseplayers’ boycott.” 

So, is an overthrow immenent? Well, yes and no. According to the linked Paulick Report post, it seems only 8% of the TOC membership voted at the last board election. In order for Licht and the CTHA to decertify the TOC, they must petition the California Horse Racing Board with 10% of the TOC membership.

Oh by the way, John Sadler, president of the California Thoroughbred Trainers (CTT), and the CTT Northern California vice-president Gloria Haley, were named as charter members of the CTHA.

The TOC was created in 1993 to give a voice to horse owners after the trainers boycotted entries at Hollywood Park in opposition to night racing. The CTT evolved in 1995 out of the California Division of the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Agency (HBPA), giving California trainers their own platform. Now, the CTHA, with members in both the TOC and CTT, are asking for the agencies to find a common ground.

Confused?

Hey, at that's one thing the CTHA, TOC, or CTT has already accomplished together!!!

Making friends, influencing people, building bridges...change we can believe in!?!?!?!

TVG – Stop the Insanity

2011-03-29T00:15:00.000-07:00

Last week Bob Baedeker, Chris Kotulak, Frank Lyons, and Frank Mirahmadi were let go among 20 firings at a company free-falling from horse racing’s pulse thanks to questionable leadership.

Who watches TVG, Television Games Network, anymore? I, for one, continue to catch coverage on the seminal horse racing/wagering network but it is no longer for their “mainstream” coverage. Contract disputes for track signals have resulted in a loss of important winter racing from Florida, Louisiana and California.

The formation of HRTV, Horse Racing Television, caused key Kentucky Derby preps run at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita Park to keep the focus away from TVG. Churchill Downs and Arlington Park are major meetings exclusive to HRTV. Currently, NYRA allows a choice of network coverage for their signals which makes the more familiar winter (Aqueduct), spring (Aqueduct/Belmont Park), summer (Belmont Park/Saratoga), fall (Belmont Park) station (read: HRTV) a natural to follow year-round horse racing information in New York and around the country.

This recent company reorganization is not the way to do it. Firing the most enjoyable and informative quartet on the network have made the channel unwatchable to me for anything but “The Quarters,” thanks to Les Onaka, Dave Weaver, and Mike Joyce as well as “International Racing” primarily from Japan. Too often I've read or heard about fans turning off the sound to avoid listening to annoying voices. TVG silenced four of their best voices.

Their tenuous connections to both “Dead Track Running,” Hollywood Park, and to a fashionable boutique meeting at Del Mar, are the “exclusive” signals that keep the network from sinking into the abyss.

What is maddening at TVG is the bent on comedy and conflict at the expense of taste and integrity. Horse racing at the essence is “The Sport of Kings” where majestic thoroughbreds and powerful quarterhorses give their all, doing what they were bred to do, for our entertainment. A select few can call the industry their profession.

Jokes, sometimes esoteric, by on-air talent take the focus away from the ingredients that make horse racing “must see TV” for me. Who are we really entertaining here? Is it the staff or the viewer?

I have no problem sprinkling a few zingers in…Bob Baffert was famous for them once-upon-a-time. Unfortunately, when networks and individuals go overboard in an environment of relationships and respect, integrity is lost. In Baffert’s case he’s carefully selecting what he makes public, since his chauvinistic remarks aimed at Jenine Sahadi before the Santa Anita Derby in 2000 drew such ire. Baffert is a Hall of Fame trainer and he’s rebuilt his media image with the skill that made him a household name and the face of thoroughbred trainers over the likes of D.Wayne Lukas.

TVG may never regain the luster lost…unless BetFair has something up their collective sleeves. Current management at the company hasn’t been able to right the sinking ship.

Indulge me with a few personal words about those jettisoned:
Bob Baedeker
I grew up watching Mr. Baedeker and his brother, Rick, a former race track president, hosting a horse racing show on KDOC, channel 56 here in the Los Angeles area. “Baedeker’s Sport of Kings” ran for eight years. His insights, along with his brother’s, on handicapping are indispensible. Perhaps Bob’s frank reassessments of his opinions and plays on TVG after-the-fact were better teachers than his many winning wagers. He’s forgotten much more about the game than I, and many of you, know. I hope that he will regain a foothold in the Los Angeles horse racing media, be it television or radio, aside from his tout service “Baedeker’s Guide.” Hey, Mr. B? How about putting another show together with your Gelato-scoopin’ brother? You both would have viewer/listener #1 right here!

Chris Kotulak
As hosts go at TVG, he was the most knowledgeable and classy presenter of the principle hosts. His strong baritone voice clearly disseminated novel or banal facts with aplomb. Despite his quarter horse background, Kotulak was also equally effective when pressed into thoroughbred duty. He offered solid opinions about handicapping while throwing softballs to the expert analysts. Just the other day, I saw the reverence and skill Kotulak brought to a “TVG Legends” show about Blane Schvaneveldt. With his crew, Kotulak captured the skill, loyalty, friendship, and care the lifetime quarter horse trainer possessed in his life. Chris, if I may call you by your first name, keep wearin’ that 10 gallon! I’m very sure the industry hasn’t seen the last of you. Los Alamitos and Ruidoso Downs, are you paying attention to the quality individual that has come available? Perhaps even Santa Anita Park or Del Mar, heed this notice!

Frank Lyons
This Irish-born lifetime horseman has single-handedly piqued my skills in race horse observation. Back in 2006 during TVG’s coverage of “The Works” at Churchill Downs, he pointed out what a magnificent beast BARBARO was going into the Kentucky Derby. I remember his comments about BARBARO’s peak condition and turf stride, long and powerful, but hard into the dirt.

He brought a legitimate candor to analyzing the race, not usually from a statistics angle, but from a real-life perspective of barn intentions and horse fitness/conformation.

Mr. Lyons, your infrequent visits to the TVG set over the last few years have resulted in fewer visits from this observer to that station. I hope that horse racing gives you everything you want in the years to come. Selfishly, I hope you want to give horse racing fans like myself what we want…come back to the on-air media to educate us about the grace of the thoroughbred athlete through the genuine love of the animal you possess.

Frank Mirahmahdi
Last, but certainly not least.

Do you want to hear how talented he is??? Listen to this…

And, imitation is truly the sincerest form of flattery for the California Fair Circuit Track Announcer…

Frank Mirahmahdi is what the network so sorely needs. He is an individual commenting about horse racing with talent to deliver it in the appropriate manner. Whether serious or humorous, Frank (if I can be so personal), you were really a must-hear. I hope to run into you at the track to tell you how much you add to the game.

Wireplayers Derby Dozen - Volume 4

2011-03-23T20:45:00.000-07:00

Enjoy the latest version of the Wireplayers Derby Dozen.

The time is drawing near, just one more prep and 44 tension-filled days for many Kentucky Derby contenders as Thursday dawns. Thankfully for supporters of all 12 of the contenders on the list, they would all make the gate on earnings as of today.

Enjoy the West Coast contenders below (in Derby Dozen order):

THE FACTOR

Last start: 1st - Rebel S. (G.II) - March 19

Graded stakes earnings (rank): $270,000 (5th - tie)
Probable next start: Arkansas Derby (G.I) - April 16

PREMIER PEGASUS

Last start: 1st - San Felipe S. (G.II) - March 12

Graded stakes earnings (rank): $228,000 (12th)
Probable next start: Santa Anita Derby (G.I) - April 9

JAYCITO

Last start: 2nd San Felipe S. (G.II) - March 12

Graded stakes earnings (rank): $250,000 (8th - tie)
Probable next start: Santa Anita Derby (G.I) - April 9

ANTHONY'S CROSS

Last start: 1st - Robert B. Lewis S. (G.II) - February 12

Graded stakes earnings (rank): $162,000 (15th)
Probable next start: Santa Anita Derby (G.I) - April 9

Get ready for the next 3 weeks...it's gonna be a bumpy ride! With the $2 million UAE Derby (G.II), $1 million Louisiana Derby (G.II) and $500,000 Vinery Racing Spiral S. (G.III) on Saturday, along with Sunday's $800,000 Sunland Derby (G.III) there may be lots of shuffling at the bottom rungs of the graded stakes earning ladder.

BTW, MACLEAN'S MUSIC, threw his hat in the ring to be called the fastest 3y.o. in the country (perhaps the world!). The son of DISTORTED HUMOR, out of FOREST MUSIC, debuted at Santa Anita on Saturday earning the highest debut Beyer Speed Figure since the figures have been published in Daily Racing Form. The Stonestreet Stable/Steve Asmussen/Scott Blasi connected colt earned a 114, eclipsing freakishly fast/bemoaningly brittle FORMAL GOLD's 112.

Here's the replay:

Is it possible Mike Smith has caught lightning in a bottle so soon after ZENYATTA's retirement???

Have a great week!

KENTUCKY DERBY NOTEBOOK – THE FACTOR will be just that in the Run for the Roses; UNCLE MO attempts to parlay a juvenile Eclipse into Derby glory; PRE

2011-03-20T21:35:00.000-07:00

UNCLE MO’s legitimate Derby win chances have been affected by the emergence of two West Coast based contenders like the San Felipe S. (G.II) and Rebel S. (G.II) winners who can, and will, be two straws stirring the Derby.

THE FACTOR

Bob Baffert has become a major player in this year’s Derby, not with G.I winner JAYCITO (thus far) who finished a distant 2nd in the San Felipe S., but with THE FACTOR. In a shade under 3 months, Baffert took a hellbent-for-speed track record breaking maiden winner at Santa Anita and turned him into a G.II Rebel S. winner at Oaklawn Park. With just one start as a juvenile, projecting THE FACTOR to a Kentucky Derby win would be an unbelievable training feat talked about in racing circles for decades to come.

That Baffert made the son of DANZIG stallion WAR FRONT a middle distance Derby prep winner is not much of a surprise. His career is littered with colts he’s won preps with but did not taste American Classic victory: SINISTER MINISTER (G.I Blue Grass); BOB AND JOHN (G.I Wood Memorial), CONGAREE (G.I Wood Memorial), PREACHINATTHEBAR (G.2 San Felipe), and INDIAN CHARLIE (G.I Santa Anita Derby) come immediately to mind.

The wire-to-wire style THE FACTOR used to win the Rebel was unusual among Derby prep winners this year. SOLDAT, ironically another son of WAR FRONT, was the only other winner to employ that style when capturing the G.II Fountain of Youth. I suppose you can also put UNCLE MO in that category, but the Timely Writer is not necessarily a traditional prep, nor was it around two turns.

Teaching a colt as fast as THE FACTOR to clear and cruise instead of pulling the entire trip, makes owner Michael Bolton and Baffert believe a Derby dream is legitimate. His splits compare favorably with those of two other Derby hopefuls and their Beyer Speed Figures:
THE FACTOR (Rebel S.) :23.33 :23.44 :24.21 :25.01 :06.20 103
UNCLE MO (BC Juvenile) :23.97 :23.60 :24.35 :24.41 :06.27 108
PREMIER PEGASUS (San Felipe S.) :22.75 :23.33 :23.80 :24.67 :06.67 96

THE FACTOR, as did his 3y.o. counterparts, won by open lengths. His final 1/16 was the remarkable fraction when he seemingly rebroke. Up to that point, he’d been decelerating slowly each successive ¼ mile split. In his fourth ¼ mile fraction, he averaged ½ furlongs in :06.25. His :06.20 was faster than UNCLE MO or PREMIER PEGASUS finished traveling the same distance.

The finish of the Rebel proved that the gallop-out of the 7 furlong San Vicente S. (G.II) was a predictor of two turn success. At the finish, it looked as if the charging SWAY AWAY would speed past after the finish. Instead, it was THE FACTOR who widened into the far turn hinting that he would fare better than the Jeff Bonde trainee when stretched around two turns.

I am a believer…that a silver-haired trainer can push a steely gray sprinter to have the resolve to win the Kentucky Derby. It’s happened before.

Flash back to 1997, SILVER CHARM gave Bob Baffert and Bob and Beverly Lewis the ride of a lifetime to the precipice of Triple Crown glory. While history will show that trainer and owners were denied in the Belmont Stakes that year, individually they took horses along the same exhilarating and incomplete journey in coming seasons. For Baffert, he’d taste Belmont Stakes defeat with REAL QUIET in 1998 and WAR EMBLEM in 2002 as well as taking the last two of three legs in the Triple Crown with POINT GIVEN in 2001. The Lewis’ graciously shared Triple Crown woe with CHARISMATIC and D. Wayne Lukas in 1999.

As with many loves, in this case three Kentucky Derby winners, the first one likely holds a special place in Baffert’s racing heart. It was proof that he could train at the pinnacle of his profession, undeniably making him a thoroughbred race horse trainer from his quarter horse background. SILVER CHARM’s road to classic glory was a template Baffert could use to get a sprinter to stay a classic distance. He’s only had that chance once since.

Skip to 2010 when Baffert took short-fused gray colt CONVEYANCE to the Derby. The Southwest S. (G.III) and San Rafael S. (G.III) winner was denied emphatically by ENDORSEMENT when his speed was stretched to 1 1/8 miles in the Sunland Derby (G.II).

Baffert gave his colt a chance to sink or swim in the Kentucky Derby anyway. In the Churchill Downs slop last year, the result was sink.

So, what say you??? Does THE FACTOR swim like SILVER CHARM did or sink like CONVEYANCE last year?

That brings me to the next pressing Derby question: Could sire INDIAN CHARLIE, 3rd in the 1998 Kentucky Derby and sire of CONVEYANCE, produce a horse worthy of wearing the rose-covered blanket?

UNCLE MO
Like many fans and horseplayers I believe that UNCLE MO will carry Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole into the Churchill Downs winner’s circle, as he did in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G.I), and bid to become the next Triple Crown winner and first since AFFIRMED turned the trick in 1978. That victory, along with the Champion Juvenile Male Eclipse Award, made Pletcher and Repole custodians of the Kentucky Derby future book favorite.

Until last Saturday, Pletcher was preparing UNCLE MO to race against himself and turf history. They’ve been criticized this year for ginger handling of the champ which involves just two pre-Derby prep races.

The first was the written-for-‘MO Timely Writer S. exhibition last Saturday. Other than an early bump, his foes were relenting as if it were a team drill in the afternoon for the superstar. It featured a final ¼ in :22.87 en route to a final time of 1:36.56.

How much we find out about UNCLE MO in the Wood Memorial is a mystery because the ultimate goal is a fresh horse for the Derby and the remainder of the Triple Crown. The danger with such a limited pre-Derby campaign is he will not be able to handle the fast pace usually generated by a stampede to the first turn, along with the pitfalls that often plague legitimate Derby contenders in a 20 horse field. I feel very certain in saying that we’ve seen performances from sophomores this year that will test UNCLE MO’s mettle early, middle, and late in what promises to be an exciting Derby.

My position about UNCLE MO is not changing, but the dominance I believed he had over this crop of 3y.o.’s is becoming less apparent with each and every prep race that produces a winner with a style similar to his.

I stress that UNCLE MO did things as a 2y.o. that many can’t learn as older horses. I also point out that the 1 1/16 miles prep race I use to compare him to this crop came as a juvenile.

UNCLE MO broke his maiden at Saratoga by over 14 lengths running virtually identical final ¼ mile splits (:23 2/5, :23 3/5) en route to an impressive 1:09 1/5 final time.

In start #2, he made a shambles of the G.I Champagne S. After a :45 4/5 opening ½ with another horse at his throat, he cruised to a 3rd ¼ split of :25 3/5, then authored a much faster :24 final fraction stamping him as a legitimate BC Juvenile favorite. It’s usual for a dirt horse to run progressively slower as the distances increase, especially after a sub-:46 opening ½ mile. It’s highly unusual for such a natural speed horse to “switch off” through the third ¼ mile and then turn on the jets for the stretch run.

UNCLE MO’s ability to accelerate during the running of a race along with a resistance to decelerate is what makes him such an exciting Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown prospect. That skill was on full display in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He ran a much faster 2nd ¼ mile to hold his position, cruised to the lead at the ¾ call when RIVETING REASON tired from his early efforts, then ran a virtually identical 4th ¼ fraction putting distance between himself and second choice BOYS AT TOSCANOVA down the lane.

Has UNCLE MO progressed physically? Dr. Stephen Allday said as much on Steve Byk’s At the Races radio program last week. He went on to say that in his career ‘MO is the horse best equipped to “run the table,” suggesting we could be treated to a Triple Crown winner.

Without an effort as a 3y.o. that will erase doubts he can handle the most rigorous two minutes in sports, UNCLE MO will need to be other-worldly special to win the Derby, let alone the Triple Crown.

PREMIER PEGASUS

If ever there was ever a colt bred to become a classic winner, this Myun Kwon Cho homebred is that horse. He’s by 2000 Derby winner FUSAICHI PEGASUS and out of SQUALL LINDA, a daughter of 1990 Preakness winner SUMMER SQUALL.

PRE PEG, as he’s affectionately called by his unofficial fan club president tencentcielo, began his career on synthetics in California. He finished his juvenile season without a defeat in three starts, including black type wins in the Jack Goodman S.

…and the Hollywood Prevue (G.III).

It seemed almost by design, only three races and each race around one corner. It’s a preparation similar to one New York based SEATTLE SLEW went through, without stretching out to a mile nor did the campaign culminate in a G.I win. The way Alonso Quinonez pulled the colt up in his wins, it’s almost as if Cho did not want his colt running hard around two turns last year.

Like ‘SLEW, PREMIER PEGASUS returned to the races as a 3y.o. traveling 7 furlongs in March. Unlike the 1977 Triple Crown winner, he did not stay undefeated. Instead, he was a short colt who did the stalk/bid/fade against a buzz saw named THE FACTOR in the G.II San Vicente S.

That caused Cho to remove the blinkers from PREMIER PEGASUS for the G.II San Felipe S. It turned out to be a fortuitous move, considering the blistering pace set by ALBERGATTI, RUN FLAT OUT, and COMMA TO THE TOP. Under Quinonez’ patient handling, PRE PEG rated in mid-pack as much as 7 ½ lengths back. It was new territory for a colt that’d been on or just off the pace in all his prior races.

PREMIER PEGASUS responded like his connections hoped he would. He passed horses on the far turn and widened his advantage in the stretch despite running appreciably slower each successive split.

He was unable to take a breather throughout the 1 1/16 miles and his final 2 ½ furlongs in :32.25 underscores how hard PREMIERE PEGASUS ran just to keep up early. On the day, he showed the best combination of speed and stamina. I believe he’d have run faster at the end if not for those blazing fractions. With a final time of 1:41.23, this colt is a legitimate racehorse and deserving of any placement on lists of top 2011 Derby contenders.

Thanks for reading along…I’d enjoy any comments about these three Kentucky Derby contenders and any general thoughts you have about the Road to the Roses.

AQUEDUCT 9TH – THE CICADA (G.III)

2011-03-19T12:11:00.000-07:00

DREAM OF A ROMAN TREASURE

Among these 3y.o. fillies are runners who were precocious enough to be involved in stakes races before this event. They have not progressed at the rate of graded stakes fillies for one reason or another. Because they have some name recognition, odds are fillies like QUANTUM MISS (7-2), COAX LIBERTY(4-1), and even FULL MOON BLUES (12-1) will draw more attention than I believe is warranted at the mutuels.

There are a few more (IN STEP, 3-1 and ROMAN TREASURE, 7-2) that are well bred but can count only a maiden win as their highest accomplishments. As we saw last week with ALBERGATTI and RUN FLAT OUT at Santa Anita in the San Felipe the water gets significantly deeper in the graded stakes ranks. That said, this is a rather reasonable G.III spot and it’s around one turn, a game these fillies seem to enjoy.
However, there is one who’s made it look all too easy thus far in her brief racing career…one DREAM who can become a graded stakes reality for her mid-Atlantic owner Dark Hollow Racing and trainer Rodney Jenkins.

DREAM won both career starts by a total of 10 ¾ lengths. Her debut came as a 2y.o. at Delaware Park on July 20. She returned at Laurel Park as a 3y.o. on Feburary 18. With comments from her running lines like “drew off smartly” and “ridden out” at odds of 4-5 in her debut and 2-5 in her last start, it’s a bit strange to see David Cohen will be her third different jockey.

This daughter of MALIBU MOON appears to be at a disadvantage if considering her top Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). She earned a 77 in her debut win and returned with a 75 at Laurel. The high Beyers in the field belong to QUANTUM MISS (94) and ROMAN TREASURE (83) while COAX LIBERTY and FULL MOON BLUES tie for third-best (80). This means that DREAM’s morning line of 5-1 will likely hold.

In this case, I believe the numbers tell a story but it is not what it appears at first glance.

DREAM has not been asked for her best in either start which leads me to deduce she could have won by more, in faster time, earning a better figure. Alas, her debut came on a wet-fast surface which likely caused injury, at the very least bucked shins. Her allowance win tells me she’s at least the same filly, ready to unleash her career-best performance today. Will she need it?

To me she’s every bit as fast, or faster, than the top figure runners despite the lower career-best figure. Her 77 debut in July rates better than the debut runs of every filly except WILD ABOUT SONNY, who was all out to earn the identical number at Monmouth Park in June. That filly paired figures, like DREAM did, but in a manner that suggested she was at her peak speed at that point in her development. Predictably, she regressed to a 66 in the common Dearly Precious Stakes February 12 finishing 5th at 5-2.

Beyer leader and most likely starting favorite QUANTUM MISS earned a paltry 53 in her Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing or Prx in PP’s) debut September 11 at 2-1 when 3rd. However, she justified favoritism with a facile maiden win at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) October 29 earning a 74. Her career-best effort came in start #3, winning a restricted stakes for Pennsylvania-breds by a whopping 16 lengths November 24 for a 94 BSF. That effort made the daughter of SMOKE GLACKEN the 7-5 favorite in the G.3 Old Hat January 5. She regressed to a 66 that day because of a terrible stumble at the start and rushing up to attend a :21 3/5 and :44 pace. Understandably, she faded and was wisely given time off by Anthony Dutrow.

At 7-2 on the morning line and second choice, she’s an overlay and usable if she holds around that price. However, that 94 figure will catch many people’s attention as will the beaten-favorite angle. She’ll probably go off a tepid favorite, in the 9-5 range. The public will need to decide if that 94 is a giraffe figure, a number that stands out among three ordinary BSF’s? Or, is that top figure a reflection of her true talent? At a short price but the fastest filly in the race on past performance, she’s a “saver” bet candidate at best. However, in a short field coming off such a poor finish and with a conditioning question to answer, I’ll choose to play against her altogether.

ROMAN TREASURE is the co-second choice on the morning line at 7-2 coming off a maiden win at Aqueduct February 27. It was career start #2 and she earned a 83 BSF. She got the “treatment” that day after a rather “green” debut on January 30 in which she ran in the same place, 4th at a well-supported 7-2 for a 66 figure. Blinkers were added by super-high percentage trainer Mike Hushion and the result was a wire job by 3 lengths under a Channing Hill “hand” ride as the 9-5 favorite.

How much more improvement will the well bred daughter of a ROMAN RULER and JEANNE JONES mating show in career start #3 after a 17 point improvement? It’s entirely possible that she can improve on that 83 considering the ease of the maiden win. This $200,000 yearling is the most likely exacta partner to DREAM.

Honorable mention goes to Darley’s “million dollar baby” IN STEP, a daughter of UNBRIDLED’S SONG that was the winning ½ of a prompt 7-5 second choice entry in her debut. The figure came back a relatively low 75 BSF when considering the workmanlike manner in which she won compared to the wins by DREAM, ROMAN TREASURE and QUANTUM MISS.

IN STEP may be better as the distances increase and could become the best filly of this group. Today, she will take a ton of dirt if she runs a similar race to her debut and won’t be able to run down these seemingly speedier and more precocious fillies. If Eddie Castro decides to gun from the rail, a fond strategy on the Aqueduct inner track, her development may take a severe hit.

Out of a STRAWBERRY ROAD mare and calling UNBRIDLED grandsire, IN STEP may find her best stride too late to matter for the top spots.

Good luck to you all this weekend!

SATURDAY, IN THE (SANTA ANITA) PARK: Did UNCLE MO’s West Coast foil emerge when PREMIER PEGASUS sprouted wings down the San Felipe stretch?

2011-03-13T13:50:00.000-07:00

After UNCLE MO kept his unbeaten streak alive with a decisive 2011 debut win in the TIMELY writer, PREMIER PEGASUS ran into the champ’s stratosphere with an emphatic San Felipe Stakes win.

UNCLE MO, the Eclipse-winning Juvenile Male of 2010, remained undefeated in four career starts with a professional win in Gulfstream Park’s Timely Writer. It was an ideal prep for his next step toward greatness, aspiring to the achievements of champion colts named SECRETARIAT:

...SEATTLE SLEW:

...and AFFIRMED: (no video of his return run appears on the web).

Ignore the competition. Going into the race, everyone knew that the Timely Writer had no starter that could raise UNCLE MO’s pulse if he was healthy. The field was also not representative in number, with only four other starters when the gates opened. Forget the fractions and consider the final time (1:36.56) only in context of the roughly :12 furlong average that class horses routinely run.

In the one turn mile, Todd Pletcher’s best-ever juvenile and 3y.o. loped the initial ¼ mile in :25.53 after being bumped soundly at the start to be away last. Consternation, caused by the early trouble, was allayed when UNCLE MO and jockey John Velazquez assumed the lead very early on. The tandem dictated terms with supreme confidence throughout the race in what was an afternoon workout.
The final fractions for the champ were :24.05, :24.11, and an other-worldly :22.87 under a hand ride. When was the last time you saw a final ¼ mile of a one turn mile run in under :23? Last year in the Hal’s Hope (G.III) for instance, newly-turned 4y.o. QUALITY ROAD ran 1:36.33 getting fractions of :25.15, :23.16, :23.72 and a final ¼ in :24.30.

Don’t look solely to the Timely Writer as proof he’s the same animal he was last year. The defining effort that made him the top horse in most Derby “Top Whatever” lists was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After that win it was up to the rest of his classmates to come up to his level. UNCLE MO looks like a colt that can only be measured against himself and to the great 3y.o.’s of the past.

There have been nice route wins by sophomores such as ANTHONY’S CROSS (pictured, left), ARCHARCHARCH, BRETHREN, MUCHO MACHO MAN, SILVER MEDALLION, SOLDAT, and STAY THIRSTY thus far in 2011. Even ballyhooed DIALED IN lost his first two turn race vs. older allowance horses. However, no effort by a 3y.o. has been as dominant and fast (in raw speed) as PREMIER PEGASUS’ San Felipe S. (G.II) score.

In his first race around two turns he almost made most observers forget about his Kentucky Derby-winning sire FUSAICHI PEGASUS, who won the race easily in 2000 en route to a Wood Memorial/Kentucky Derby double.

How does PREMIER PEGASUS’ San Felipe win compare with UNCLE MO’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory? Here’s a quick and dirty juxtaposition.

Good luck on the Derby trail to the connections of PREMIER PEGASUS and his #1 fan, tencentcielo who picked the winner and the exacta/trifecta boxed underneath over at Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner!

SANTA ANITA OAKS RECAP – Puype realistic or too conservative with TURBULENT DESCENT?

2011-03-08T00:18:00.000-08:00

At a time when horse racing needs more rivalries, Mike Puype is apparently choosing the path of least resistance for the dual G.I winner instead of preparing for the Kentucky Oaks and future contests against arch rival ZAZU.

The maximum distance fillies and mares will need to run in the Breeders’ Cup is 1 1/8 miles in the Ladies’ Classic. Late-blooming amazons like ZENYATTA find 1 ¼ miles preferable. The Kentucky Oaks is 1 1/8 miles.

Last Saturday, TURBULENT DESCENT hung on to win the G.I Santa Anita Oaks avenging a loss in the Las Virgenes (G.I) and extending her advantage against arch rival ZAZU to 3-1. That effort likely makes her the Santa Anita winter meeting’s leading 3y.o., but runner-up ZAZU will draw her share of votes having won the Las Virgenes in February while closing with a rush in the Oaks to lose by a nose.

Trainer Mike Puype said in the post race interview that it appears his filly doesn’t want more than the 1 1/16 miles she ran in both of her G.I wins. He cited that her two sprint wins to start her career were apparently more facile than her subsequent two turn races.

I beg to differ as the competition in her last three starts, all G.I events, was stiffer than the maiden win and Moccasin Stakes victory. In the Oaks, she defeated two G.I winners (ZAZU and A Z WARRIOR) and a G.III winner (MAY DAY ROSE).

She’s a slight filly; one you’d swear was a fish a la REAL QUIET as she seems to disappear when viewed head on.

This is the sort of build that distance runners usually have. Robust fillies and mares like ZENYATTA are once-in-a-lifetime types and cannot be used as the gold standard when determining another horse’s ability around two turns.

I believe she will get bumped around and could be swallowed up vs. bona fide filly and mare sprinters, especially in large fields. Plus, the turns at Churchill Downs are tighter than most people believe and many times a terrific far turn move propels a horse to the win. Evidence EVENING JEWEL’s nose defeat to champion BLIND LUCK after opening up a clear lead in the Kentucky Oaks last year:

So, Mr. Puype, please reconsider your decision. Horse racing needs rivalries like the one TURBULENT DESCENT and ZAZU are cultivating.

Forget about races like the Alabama at 1 ¼ miles…those races won’t prepare her for a late season Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic invasion anyway.

Why not let TURBULENT DESCENT prove if she can’t handle a mere 1/16 mile more, at a pace that is usually more conducive to her style than ZAZU’s? If the daughter of CONGRATS was going to crash and burn around two turns, she’d have done it in the Santa Anita Oaks after that very fast Las Virgenes return.

Instead, TURBULENT DESCENT showed what her juvenile campaign hinted: she’s all class and her kind deserves a chance at becoming a filly for the ages with a Kentucky Oaks appearance.

SANTA ANITA HANDICAP RECAP (and pictures)

2011-03-06T12:16:00.000-08:00

‘DUDE AND SUTHERLAND GET THEIR “GAME ON”BY CROSSCHECKING TWIRLING CANDY INTO AN UNLUCKY SETSUKO WHILE THE STEWARDS DON’T BELIEVE WHAT THEY JUST SAW

Bob Baffert won the Big ‘Cap for the second consecutive year and the third time in his career thanks to a major oversight by two of the three stewards overseeing the Santa Anita proceedings. At least there is one person in the video booth that seems to be able to look at a horse race intelligently.

Plain and simple, the inquiry in the Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday was blown. I was there, on a picturesque day capturing telling pictures at the head of the stretch.

In my opinion, GAME ON DUDE and Chantal Sutherland should have been taken down and placed fifth behind TWIRLING CANDY. Take nothing away from the official winner, who ran the race of his life…

…and give Baffert credit (like he needs it), whose excellent preparation of the son of AWESOME AGAIN along with running three other entrants, added to his illustrious Hall of Fame career.

Even Sutherland was undeserving of the booing and the police escort she reportedly received after the race. She scrubbed and whipped for all she was worth. She did her job and drove her steed to the wire first.

This post is aimed squarely at a lack of action by the stewards. They are the rule keepers who’ve been wrong more than right which gives the impression they’re inept applying the rules of racing to adjudicate trouble. How could horseplayers be confident putting money through the windows? How risky is it for horsemen to run their horses at Santa Anita, from a physical and/or financial position?

As the field turned into the stretch, GAME ON DUDE had gamely taken over the lead…

…but was quickly challenged by rallying SETSUKO and TWIRLING CANDY to the outside.

Take a look at the replay:

I noted that the outside pair were moving quickly to engage GAME ON DUDE, but ‘CANDY and Joel Rosario along with SETSUKO and Victor Espinoza were driving hard on the outside causing a mild bump that occurs every day in horse racing.

As Rosario shifted his weight slightly inward to get his horse to switch leads, as many jockeys need to do, Sutherland hit GAME ON DUDE hard left-handed once and his hind end tipped out into TWIRLING CANDY causing Rosario to steady. Then another strong left-handed stick from Sutherland struck ‘DUDE hard and he shifted severely outward and into TWIRLING CANDY’s path…

… which caused TWIRLING CANDY to lose his action and was severe enough to bump SETSUKO on the far outside.

For all who think that TWIRLING CANDY was done, consider that he hadn’t switched leads nor had Rosario gone to the whip. Need I remind you of TIZNOW, who appeared defeated in the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic yet re-rallied to win?

After all the dust had settled and an interminable 12 minute inquiry would have made Japanese stewards proud, 3-5 favorite TWIRLING CANDY was not allowed to show his true mettle because of a stretch run that would have resulted in a multi-car pileup if occurring on the nearby 210 freeway.

Rosario was not able to use his stick until mid-stretch, and even then it was only half-hearted as their main goal, winning, wasn’t possible. SETSUKO, a 25-1 longshot, would have been a deserving winner but settled for second while GAME ON DUDE was kept up as the official winner. The final time was 1:59.47 and the first-time G.I winner paid $31.60, making a vacationing Illinois couple I spoke with prior to the start much closer after their playing was pulling them apart. QUINDICI MAN, free of the commotion, clunked up for third at 69-1 while SOUL CANDY plodded past a battered and beaten TWIRLING CANDY for 4th at 15-1.

I spoke with various fans along the apron and a professional handicapper I know on the way out. The opinions were many, but since my friend agreed with me (even though a DQ behind TWIRLING CANDY would have turned a winning ticket into a loser), I must be right ;-) .

On to lighter discussions next week (hopefully) as UNCLE MO returns in the Timely Writer, the San Felipe Stakes (G.II) is loaded (ALBERGATTI, BENCH POINTS, COMMA TO THE TOP, JAYCITO, PREMIER PEGASUS, et al) at Santa Anita Park, while the Tampa Bay Derby will prove BRETHREN contender or pretender.

Have a great week!

SANTA ANITA HANDICAP – The Skinny on TWIRLING CANDY

2011-03-04T08:27:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the Santa Anita Handicap (Brisnet pp’s), a G.I race inaugurated in 1935 and simply known as “The Big ‘Cap.”

It was the first $100,000 race. In the early days it was called “The Hundred Grander” and was won by turf legends such as SEABISCUIT, ROUND TABLE, AFFIRMED, SPECTACULAR BID, JOHN HENRY, and ALYSHEBA. Charles Howard leads owners with three wins, Charlie Whittingham heads the trainer list with eight victories, and his main rider Bill Shoemaker won the race a record seven times. Three horses have won two editions, most recently LAVA MAN in consecutive runnings (2006 and 2007).

This year will be the 74th renewal with the Craig Family Trust and trainer John Sadler hoping to become first-time winners of this historic race. Bob Baffert will attempt to win in back-to-back years, capturing the race for a second time last year with MISREMEMBERED. That horse will return on Sunday in the Santana Mile.

TWIRLING CANDY will be the main focus of horsemen and horseplayers alike after impressive wins in the Charles H. Strub Stakes (G.II) and Malibu Stakes (G.I) earlier this meeting. He must win this race, his first against older horses and first at the American classic distance of 1 ¼ miles, to win legitimate consideration as the best horse in America and become the early season’s top contender for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.

Read more at Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner : Welcome to the Santa Anita Handicap (Brisnet pp’s), a G.I race inaugurated in 1935 and simply known as “The Big ‘Cap.”

It was the first $100,000 race. In the early days it was called “The Hundred Grander” and was won by turf legends such as SEABISCUIT, ROUND TABLE, AFFIRMED, SPECTACULAR BID, JOHN HENRY, and ALYSHEBA. Charles Howard leads owners with three wins, Charlie Whittingham heads the trainer list with eight victories, and his main rider Bill Shoemaker won the race a record seven times. Three horses have won two editions, most recently LAVA MAN in consecutive runnings (2006 and 2007).

This year will be the 74th renewal with the Craig Family Trust and trainer John Sadler hoping to become first-time winners of this historic race. Bob Baffert will attempt to win in back-to-back years, capturing the race for a second time last year with MISREMEMBERED. That horse will return on Sunday in the Santana Mile.

TWIRLING CANDY will be the main focus of horsemen and horseplayers alike after impressive wins in the Charles H. Strub Stakes (G.II) and Malibu Stakes (G.I) earlier this meeting. He must win this race, his first against older horses and first at the American classic distance of 1 ¼ miles, to win legitimate consideration as the best horse in America and become the early season’s top contender for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.

*****Read more at Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner!*****

SANTA ANITA HANDICAP NOTEBOOK: ‘DUDE, respect Team Baffert

2011-03-02T00:01:00.000-08:00

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has four of the 11 probables setting up for a tag team attack in the track’s signature race.

I've already suggested TWIRLING CANDY as the horse to beat in the Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday, March 5.
MISREMEMBERED won last year’s renewal but will not defend his title. Bob Baffert, his trainer, has four bullets in his holster in an attempt to shoot down likely favorite TWIRLING CANDY and win the race for the third time. With all the great 3y.o.’s Baffert has trained, you’d have thought he’d have won this race many more times by now. Alas, that’s what the breeding shed and Dubai World Cup have done to this historic race.

Instead of two-time divisional champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY, we’ll be lookin’ at FIRST DUDE, GAME ON DUDE, SPURRIER, and TWEEBSTER from this barn. Baffert tried unsuccessfully to prevent TWIRLING CANDY from winning the Strub Stakes (G.II) on February 5. That day INDIAN FIREWATER set a fast pace (:23.44, :46.53, 1:09.95) trying to sap the late energy of TWIRLING CANDY. When the leader faded earlier than anyone (including Baffert) had expected, no horse in the Strub field could make a dent into the powerful strides of the best horse in California…perhaps the top horse in the country! Baffert’s TWEEBSTER could only muster a well-beaten second.

So, what does Baffert do this time around? Instead of throwing two horses at TWIRLING CANDY, he’ll likely start all four nominees in the Big ‘Cap. This will set up a tag-team approach similar to the one that thwarted SMARTY JONES’ Triple Crown bid in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Can you find a BIRDSTONE in this offering of Baffert trainees?

FIRST DUDE
Aside from the barn’s usual suspects, owner Donald Dizney sent FIRST DUDE to Baffert from Florida after a disappointing 4th as the 4-5 favorite in the Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park. Despite his paltry 1-for-13 win record, the son of STEPHEN GOT EVEN has name recognition from placings in G.I events like the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, summer classics like the Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes, and a narrow defeat to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile nose loser MORNING LINE. He’s been tearing up the SA main track in the a.m. spins of late and will get lots of wise-guy money trying to beat the probable odds-on favorite.

On February 18, FIRST DUDE worked a best-of-103 5 furlongs in :59 3/5h indicating he’ll take INDIAN FIREWATER’s place as the pacesetter for the quartet of stablemates. The colt has never shown the kind of speed that TWIRLING CANDY has and once again looks relegated to a minor placing at best. I’ve long contended with fellow racing friends that FIRST DUDE lacks the kick to contend with horses like ‘CANDY who have a quick burst and can create separation when it matters. FIRST DUDE’s strong suit is his stamina, the ability to gallop at a steady pace which allowed him to hold placings in American 3y.o. classics when it appeared he’d fade off the board. That style caused him to lose position in the Pennsylvania Derby (G.II) and seemingly re-rallied down the lane.

This colt would be ideal for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon. He will need to repel pace pressure from G.II San Antonio H. winner GLADDING, a John Sadler stable mate of TWIRLING CANDY, and hold off the late runners.

GAME ON DUDE
The son of AWESOME AGAIN has been more of a miler to this point in his career. He’s got a 1/16 miles G.III win on his resume (Lone Star Derby) to go along with his maiden win at a one turn mile @ GP and his last win. He was impressive capturing an allowance on January 27, getting 1 1/16 miles in 1:40.77. No matter how many great works are on the page, he won’t be enough value unless he’s in the 50-1 range. I’m not sure that lone effort since June 5, 2010 will give him enough bottom to win a G.I at 10 furlongs vs. streaking TWIRLING CANDY. Look for him to rate with the favorite, in the second flight behind the pace players, attempt to take the baton from FIRST DUDE on the far turn, and fade down the lane.

SPURRIER
Unlike the current South Carolina Gamecocks coach, the 6y.o. son of DIXIELAND BAND has lost that winnin’ feelin’. In the last 10 starts, he’s won only once and that was by a desperate head in a conditions/optional claimer on the Cushion Track @ Hol last July. He’ll need TWIRLING CANDY to fall on his face to have a chance at the win, but a minor placing is realistic. He’ll pick up some tiring speed in a manner that would make BIRDSTONE proud.

TWEEBSTER
The beautiful gray son of TAPIT could not keep pace with TWIRLING CANDY in the G.II Strub but was well clear of 3rd in another consistent effort. I just cannot envision him being able to sit mid-pack with TWIRLING CANDY and turn the tables. If he flies to the lead, he’ll add to the pressure up front and tire. If he rates, he projects to being outfinished. Still eligible for a N3x allowance and not yet a stakes winner, he’s only got an outsider’s chance at best.

Check back later for more on the Big ‘Cap contenders.

SANTA ANITA HANDICAP WEEK: Amateurcapper features daily offerings leading to a Thorofan post on Santa Anita’s historic handicap

2011-02-27T11:43:00.000-08:00

There were 16 nominated at the February 19 closing; Don Dizney’s FIRST DUDE joins the Bob Baffert team of TWEEBSTER, GAME ON DUDE and SPURRIER while usual suspects AGGIE ENGINEER, CARACORTADO, GLADDING, and JERANIMO round out the next tier weighted 117 behind TWIRLING CANDY’s highweight 122.

After my usual foray to Santa Anita Park for the Malibu Stakes (G.I) on Opening Day, December 26, I was loathe to compare TWIRLING CANDY with my memory of SPECTACULAR BID. Trainer Grover “Buddy” Delp trained what he called “the best horse to look through a bridle” to a near-Triple Crown, three divisional championships, and a Horse of the Year title. Through four brilliant races in the winter of 1980 at Santa Anita, ‘BID became the standard by which I view live racing. He was more consistently brilliant that winter than my favorite race horse of all time, AFFIRMED, was the year prior winning the final two events in the same four race sequence.

SPECTACULAR BID held the Santa Anita dirt record at 7 furlongs, set when he won the Malibu Stakes...

...until TWIRLING CANDY ran 1:19.70, nosing G.I winning sprinter SMILING TIGER.

Was the Malibu result so much quality that not one, but two horses ran faster than ‘BID? I wasn’t yet convinced.

TWIRLING CANDY had not achieved the body of work that SPECTACULAR BID did prior to Delp’s decision to invade the Santa Anita graded stakes. In fact, the son of brilliant but brittle CANDY RIDE had been the subject of much discussion last summer when he bolted on the backside in the Del Mar Derby (G.IIT), eliminating longshot SUMMER MOVIE, but he was not disqualified from the win. That unpredictable streak seems to have been rectified by ultra-hot trainer John Sadler and his staff.

I had to see for myself once again, was TWIRLING CANDY for real or simply a mirage? The Strub Stakes (G.II) was, as Trevor Denman would say, “an absolute procession.” In reality, the only horse seeming to “sprout wings” was the winner. TWIRLING CANDY stamped himself as a leading contender for top older horse in the country after the easiest kind of victory, stopping the clock in 1:46.53 for the 1 1/8 miles earning the official Daily Racing Form chart comment “kicked clear under a mild hand ride passing midstretch and was under a snug hold late.”

After the Strub Stakes, I have no doubt that TWIRLING CANDY can run the extra 1/8 mile and get 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday in March. Clearly, the Craig Family Trust color-bearer is the horse to beat and the most likely winner.

This is still horse racing, a game of chance where odds-on favorites can be defeated. At the top level, there is traditionally less chance of a chaotic outcome. Is there anyone to legitimately contend with TWIRLING CANDY’s hurricane force speed?

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL: ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES – PICTURES AND THEORY AS ANTHONY’S CROSS EVENS THE SCORE WITH TAPIZAR

2011-02-13T13:44:00.000-08:00

I’m taking a wall street approach to the past and future performances of two talented southern California-based colts, neither of which will supplant the upper echelon sophomores if all stay healthy and qualify for the First Saturday in May.

ANTHONY’S CROSS has been on my Derby Trail Top 12 list since the first edition of thewireplayers.com Derby Dozen about a month ago. His distant 3rd in the Sham Stakes to TAPIZAR was just the sort of prep a late-blooming colt needed as the first race back. It reminded me of a colt (GIACOMO) I viewed as classy but too immature to compete with his faster/more precocious classmates (Champion DECLAN’S MOON and CONSOLIDATOR) but salvaged my 2005 Kentucky Derby with a flyer win wager. Here’s what I’ve sent in for a colt I’d rated #12 before the R. B. Lewis Stakes: ANTHONY’S CROSS – Has that Giacomo sort of charm, complete with classy human connections.

Needless to say, I was not surprised with the Robert B. Lewis result and ANTHONY’S CROSS has an arrow up the chart. How far up? This situation reminds me of the turf quote I will paraphrase badly: A horse isn’t as good as one win, nor is a horse as bad as one terrible finish. The Lewis winner won’t go up that high because of it.

I urge you all to remember that ANTHONY’S CROSS was overlaid at 8-1 but he also was not second choice (as I thought he should have been) for the same reason I’d mentioned…he hasn’t shown himself brilliant thus far. His win is correctly termed an “upset” and I would not put this colt in the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle just yet. He had to lay his body down to defeat RIVETING REASON by a nose in a race that was a stagger-fest down the lane. While Myun Kwon Cho’s colt is nice, he’s no stakes winner and it took him many races to break his maiden earlier this meet.

Blinkers added by fantastic trainer Eoin Harty allowed ANTHONY’S CROSS to be in closer attendance to a pace that was equally demanding as the Sham Stakes fractions were. This was his very best effort. How will he react off this race? Is it possible that he’s going to be better on turf than dirt in the future? Will others (read: UNCLE MO, TO HONOR AND SERVE, BRETHREN) have the same stamina and more speed?

One thing is certain, ANTHONY’S CROSS will be favored in his next prep race. That’s just what name recognition does when a horse wins a Derby trail prep. This is a talented colt but one that I believe is in the second tier along with TAPIZAR, behind the aforementioned runners.

On the flip side, after the Sham Stakes, my impression was that the time TAPIZAR ran was sensational but I feared that he’d run too fast for too long in his seasonal debut. This was my comment on the number 5 rated contender in the Amateurcapper Derby Top 12: TAPIZAR – Will fast Sham S. win put an apple fritter-sized hole into Winchell colt that Asmussen’s skill can’t heal?

A day removed from the Lewis, TAPIZAR gained my respect in defeat. When I’ve been able to attend the races recently, it is not to wager or even stay for the whole card. I’ve taken pictures. It is a very satisfying pursuit which has helped hone my skills in identifying horseflesh. While photography hasn’t thickened my wallet (yet), it hasn’t lightened it much either.

Fair warning from my Lewis pre-race impressions: TAPIZAR was magnificently prepared by Scott Blasi and Steve Asmussen had to be pleased with what he saw in the paddock and walking ring. He was dry as a bone even as the horses were loading. On a warmer-than-usual winter day, he looked calmer than ANTHONY’S CROSS did as the field loaded.

TAPIZAR is a good colt, a brilliantly fast one, who is ultra-competitive and wants to run his competition into submission. Just take a look at how he was comfortable on a loose rein a few strides from the wire...

...that is until he was challenged by QUAIL HILL (who had his adrenaline up after getting tangled with bobbling THIRTYFIRSTSTREET) to his outside and ANTHONY’S CROSS on his inside.

TAPIZAR will win many more races in his career. Those "supporters" that jump off his bandwagon now are going to rue the day they formed a bad opinion of him off this Lewis result.

I’m not a proponent of 1 1/16 mile preps in January or February preps at 1 1/8 miles…it’s just too much distance, too early in the year to keep a horse sound until May 7. While both ANTHONY’S CROSS and TAPIZAR are very good, at this stage of development I don’t think either has the ability to win the Kentucky Derby, let alone the Triple Crown.

How do I view each colt’s next race: “sell” on ANTHONY’S CROSS who figures a big underlay based on his Lewis odds and recent win; “buy” on TAPIZAR who will be given his head while starting at a more realistic price, viewed with a smaller target on his back by human connections of other contenders.

I'd love to read any and all comments on this prep, or others that struck your fancy!

THE WINNER AND STILL UNDEFEATED…

2011-02-12T08:29:00.000-08:00

BENCH POINTS runs down DA RULER in depleted Friday Santa Anita feature to run unbeaten streak to four.

Trainer Tim Yakteen had California-bred, multiple stakes-winning gelding BENCH POINTS wound tight for the 2011 debut, his first appearance on dirt under silks. In a field depleted by the scratch of impressive maiden winners RUMOR and POLISHED NICKEL, Alonso Quinonez guided BENCH POINTS past the 1-5 favorite, DA RULER, in 1:08.22 for six furlongs. The son of BENCHMARK remains unbeaten in four lifetime starts.

The two favorites won the paddock awards of the quartet, no surprise considering Yakteen was once assistant to Bob Baffert, trainer of DA RULER. However, my eyes and camera were focused on the dapples of BENCH POINTS. Yakteen really had the chestnut in fine fettle and the gelding ran to his looks. Granted, this was a four horse field that played out more like a serious afternoon team drill than a race. However, there are positives for the winner as well as the second finisher going forward.

As for DA RULER, a Karl Watson and Paul Weitman color-bearer (also campaigned multiple stakes winning Cal-bred sprinter DA STOOPS), the Kentucky-bred son of ROMAN RULER ran a winning race. He tracked the longshot pacesetters in third, bid for the lead while three wide on the turn, hit the top at the 1/8th pole but could not hold off more experienced BENCH POINTS late. DA RULER demonstrates the running style that wins lots of races. The biggest factor in his favor is Bob Baffert, no stranger to good 3y.o.'s including this colt's G.I sire ROMAN RULER.

Both BENCH POINTS and DA RULER finished well and should be watched down the line. I’m expecting both to stretch out to two turns next time out to test class. If Friday's feature is any predictor, they'll pass with flying colors.

GLADDING ADDED TO A SPECTACULAR STRUB STAKES “SADLER-DAY” WITH A SUNDAY, BLOODY SUNDAY FOR SAN ANTONIO STAKES FOES

2011-02-08T00:51:00.000-08:00

Gelded son of SARAVA adds to the strength of John Sadler’s Santa Anita Handicap stranglehold with TWIRLING CANDY called “the best horse in the country” by his conditioner.

After watching TWIRLING CANDY do his best impression of SPECTACULAR BID in a facile Charles H. Strub Stakes (G.II) win on Saturday, I considered anything that older horses could do in the San Antonio Stakes (G.II) on Sunday anti-climatic. I was right.

In the Strub, TWIRLING CANDY dismissed pace pressure through testing fractions (:23.44, :46.53, 1:09.95) from San Fernando Stakes (G.II) winner INDIAN FIREWATER, easily resisted a challenge by San Fernando runner-up TWEEBSTER on the far turn, and widened through the stretch. He carried Joel Rosario to the wire 4 ½ lengths to the good in 1:46.53, earning the rare chart comment “handily.” The margin of victory could have been any number, but Rosario left something in the tank for the the Santa Anita Handicap (G.I) on March 5 and the rest of 2011.

This colt by CANDY RIDE (Arg) is every bit as brilliant as his sire but I suggest that TWIRLING CANDY has more stamina. Descending from a sire line considered the stamina wing of MR. PROSPECTOR, and his Craig Family roots through dam HOUSE OF DANZIG courtesy of Juddmonte Farm damsire CHESTER HOUSE, there is no question on breeding that TWIRLING CANDY will negotiate the extra 1/8th mile to win the Big ‘Cap. CANDY RIDE won the 2003 Pacific Classic (G.I) at 1 ¼ miles in track record time, 1:59.11, as part of an undefeated six race career.

My job of analyzing the Santa Anita Handicap in less than four weeks at Thorofan Handicapper's Corner became a rather chalky proposition after the Strub Stakes. However, I had to see first hand what TWIRLING CANDY would be up against on Sunday.

GLADDING added to John Sadler’s dominance of the graded stakes action during the Santa Anita winter/spring meeting in less than impressive fashion. The conditioner swept the Opening Day graded stakes with TWIRLING CANDY (G.I Malibu Stakes), SWITCH (G.I La Brea Stakes) and SIDNEY’S CANDY (G.III Sir Beaufort). Through Sunday Sadler is dominating the races, all wins thus far have been G. III-graded stakes victories. Tencentcielo commented to me after the race that his interior fractions (:23.69, :48.72, 1:13.41) would have made any synthetic track enthusiast smile.

When Joe Talamo decided to wrangle back favored AGGIE ENGINEER , high weight on the strength of his G.II San Pasqual Stakes win, GLADDING was left to his own devices in his first attempt beyond 1 mile on the main track. The bloody-mouth gelding avoided early pressure which allowed him to sprint home in :34.59 for the final 3 furlongs!

This could not have been a more ideal prep for GLADDING in the Big 'Cap at 1 1/4 miles, especially after he flew 1:34.19 in a n1x/optional claimer on a wet-fast main track in the prior race.

One thing is certain after last weekend, it's great to be John Sadler!

WAS THE KING CHOSEN FOR QUEEN ZENYATTA ON THE FIRST TRY?

2011-01-26T23:12:00.000-08:00

Champion BERNARDINI was chosen as the first date for Horse of the Year ZENYATTA.

When ZENYATTA was sent to the broodmare band at Lane’s End, many (including me) thought it would be Lane’s End stallion, 22-year-old A.P. INDY, as the first sire to her much anticipated foal. Instead, it was Sheikh Mohammed’s BERNARDINI, a son of A.P. INDY standing at Darley, which will have the world anticipating a “classic” foal.

While the A.P. INDY/SEATTLE SLEW line has made successful racehorses when crossed with MR. PROSPECTOR blood, I’m not thrilled with two large horses mating with the potential of getting MR. P’s bad legs. His blood is found in the 5th generation of BERNARDINI’s damsire line and the 4th generation of ZENYATTA’s pedigree.

Here are a few successful examples of this cross:
FLASHING (USA)chF2006MORNING PRIDE2 MACHIAVELLIAN 10-6-0-2$633,226
At 3:
Won Test S. (G1,Sar,7F), Gazelle S. (G1,Aqu,9F), Nassau County S. (G3,Bel,7F)
3rd Mother Goose S. (G1,Bel,9F), Presque Isle Downs Masters S. (G3,Pid)
JILBAB (USA)dkb/brM1999HEADLINE MACHIAVELLIAN 9-3-2-2$347,880
2002: Won: CCA Oaks (G1); 3rd Cotillion H (G2)
MANDURAH (USA)bG2004MORNING PRIDE2 MACHIAVELLIAN 21-6-2-0$124,717
6/6/10: Set WORLD RECORD for turf mile 1:31.23 (1:30.70 METRIC 1600M) at Monmouth Park in his first grass start. Previous Turf record, 1.31:41, was set 1-3-05 at Gulfstream by Mister Light.
(statistics found on pedigreequery.com.

Nobody asked me who I thought would pair best with ZENYATTA, and rightfully so. I have no proven experience in pedigrees. However, this is a game of opinions and this is my blog. Here are my thoughts which have been marinating since ZENYATTA went to Lane’s End. I’d love to read comments about what you think.

IDEAL MATING THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN: STORM CAT
The grandson of the inimitable NORTHERN DANCER became the preeminent sire of the last 30 years. A mating with STORM CAT would have produced inbreeding 5S/5D to stamina source PRINCEQUILLO, sire of the dams of KRIS S. and SECRETARIAT.

PRINCEQUILLO is considered a source of the “large heart gene” which is widely recognized as the reason SECRETARIAT carried his blazing fractions to a dominant Triple Crown win. STORM CAT, a son of brilliant sprinter TERLINGUA, was a nose loser in the 1985 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and would have infused precocity and brilliance. His apparent fast-twitch muscle propensity (anaerobic muscle metabolism for speed traveling a mile or less) could have balanced ZENYATTA’s genes that seem to be dominated by slow twitch muscles (known for oxygen-carrying) that explain her late-developing class and stamina.

NEXT-BEST MATING THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN: GIANT’S CAUSEWAY
The 2000 European Horse of the Year came within a nostril of defeating TIZNOW in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his first and only race on dirt. This striking chestnut, when paired with broodmares by ZENYATTA’s grandsire MACHIAVELLIAN, produced SHAMARDAL, champion juvenile in England and Europe as well as champion 3y.o. in England. GIANT’S CAUSEWAY was front-and-center on the road to the 2010 Kentucky Derby as the sire of dominant Wood Memorial winner ESKENDEREYA.

Mating ZENYATTA to GIANT’S CAUSEWAY could produce a foal bred to be a top-class juvenile and stand a huge chance of becoming a Triple Crown winner. This sire carries the brilliant qualities of STORM CAT but is infused with classic stamina genes. There is some inbreeding to consider, but not from the usual sources. This hypothetical foal would be inbred to stamina influence ROBERTO (4S/4D), two-time Kentucky Derby sire (SUNNY’S HALO, SUNDAY SILENCE) HALO (5S/5D), 1960 American Champion Juvuenile HAIL TO REASON (5S/5D) and broodmare BRAMALEA (5S/5D).

BEST MATING THAT POTENTIALLY POSES THE MOST RISK: A.P. INDY
A 22-year-old ridgeling, the former Horse of the Year is widely regarded as the preeminent stamina source in American breeding. Standing at ZENYATTA’s new home at Lane’s End, this mating curiously didn’t happen. I take this slight of A.P. INDY as a sign that the old man, who commands a $150,000 stud fee, is starting to shoot some blanks. Could that be the reason that his son, BERNARDINI, was deemed the best initial mating for the daughter of STREET CRY?

If A.P. INDY is still standing and fertile in a year or two, after ZENYATTA has successfully produced a few foals, this pairing of former Horse of the Year honorees needs to happen. The hypothetical foal would be inbred to HAIL TO REASON (5S/5D) and could carry the enlarged heart of PRINCEQUILLO (5S/5D) descendents.

SUNDAY NOTES

2011-01-23T12:06:00.000-08:00

So many races, so little time…impressions on the amazing game of thoroughbred racing.

SOLDAT, a legitimate turf horse as a juvenile (G.III With Anticipation, 2nd G.II BC Juvenile Turf, 2nd G.III Pilgrim), won an allowance race in the slop by open lengths at Gulfstream Park and now will stay on the main track for the Fountain of Youth. Does anyone remember legitimate juvenile turf horses in the last five years making the switch to dirt and winning at least one Triple Crown race??? BARBARO, winner of the Holy Bull February 4, 2006 on a sloppy/sealed main track @ 1 1/8 miles, more than BIG BROWN, winner of an off-turf mile on a fast track, comes immediately to mind. Last year, PADDY O’PRADO rode solid turf form at two and early at age three to a Kentucky Derby 3rd place effort in the slop.

KATHMANBLU is developing into a really special filly on any kind of surface. The Ken McPeek trainee won the Sweetest Chant on Saturday about as easy as a horse can win a race despite McPeek saying Julien Leparoux felt she didn’t handle the grass very well. Her dominant Golden Rod (G.II) win on the Churchill Downs main track along with the troubled Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf show finish, and grassy Jessamine Stakes win @ Keeneland stamps her as one of the best of her female foal crop. She will be staying on the main track in the foreseeable future according to her conditioner. Along with her top Kentucky Oaks credentials, there will be some enthusiasts hitching their Derby hopes to the daughter of 2006 Haskell Invitational winner and Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes runner-up BLUEGRASS CAT.

WILKINSON knifed through the rail under another, patented Garrett Gomez finish to capture the LeComte (G.III) at Fair Grounds. I just can’t get excited (nor are Mike Repole or Todd Pletcher worried) over the Derby/Triple Crown hopes of a March foal who took until October 21 to debut and did not break his maiden until going two turns for the second time. His sire, LEMON DROP KID, showed more precocity (G.I Futurity, 2nd G.I Champagne) than WILKINSON but wasn’t at his best until late in his 3y.o. season (G.I Belmont, G.I Travers) and through his 4y.o. campaign (G.I Whitney, G.I Woodward, G.II Suburban, G.II Brooklyn). Top that with the fact LEMON DROP KID has been more of a turf/synthetic sire (CITRONNADE, COSMONAUT, KISS THE KID, RICHARD’S KID) and WILKINSON may best be waited on until he gets off dirt.

News flash: BOB BAFFERT can really, really train. After struggling early on after the synthetic mandate, he made himself successful on synthetics. However, the return to dirt at Santa Anita has put his Hall of Fame talent in neon lights. On Saturday, he likely made another stallion when he earned James and Marilyn Helzer’s EUROEARS, a 7y.o. horse, his first graded stakes win in the Palos Verdes (G.II).

The Santa Anita main track was “slower” (wink-wink) on Saturday after what professional handicappers/horseplayers were calling the fastest week (January 13 and 14 were singled out as particularly fast) thus far in the meeting. Track maintenance guru Richard Tedesco and his crew added sand that supposedly washed away when southern California had torrential rains prior to the meeting. 7y.o. EUROEARS “only” went six furlongs in 1:07.23 in the Palos Verdes after setting fractions of :21.56, :43.47 and passing the 1/8th pole in :54.95. $8k claimer NITRO ACTIVE ran about 13 lengths slower (1:15.66) than SQUARE EDDIE’s new track record (1:13.11) at 6 ½ furlongs set on January 14. “8” claimers run that fast around the country, right?

SMILING TIGER really did not bounce as some “experts” said on radio this morning. It was more a case that EUROEARS freaked and CAPTAIN CHEROKEE did his best impression of ½ bro MIDNIGHT LUTE. I mentioned to tencentcielo a week or so ago that I felt SMILING TIGER came back a little too quick from a tough campaign. However, his performance on opening day proved me wrong. In the 7 furlong Malibu his fractions were :22.72, :44.79 and passed the 6 furlong mark in 1:07.58. In the Palos Verdes at 6 furlongs, he ran :21.79, 43.87 and finished the race in 1:08.13. SMILING TIGER expended more energy early on Saturday than in the Malibu, which explains why he tired relatively more on the cut back. IMHO, SMILING TIGER should be pointed to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile which may suit his combination of speed/class instead of a return engagement in the Sprint where “balls-to-the-wall” brilliance often wins.

Whether or not you feel that the Santa Anita main track is too fast, it has been fair to many styles. After nearly a month, I feel that the results can be taken at face value, whether or not the favorite won. I believe the best horse won most of the races. The same day SQUARE EDDIE wired his field in the 7th race and set a record, in the 2nd race 13-1 maiden claimer WARREN’S HANDFULL ran down a loose-on-the-lead 3-1 second choice at a mile after being 2 ½ lengths back at the ¾ call. In the 5th, 7-1 first-time starter LA PINOT ran down the 7-5 favorite in a maiden claimer going 5 ½ furlongs after lagging back last and second-last at the first two calls.

There is a Pick 6 carryover at Santa Anita in excess of $108k thanks to Saturday’s difficult sequence that included EUROEARS ($20) and BLOEMER GIRL ($29) taking the feature and a listed stakes, respectively, along with Barry Abrams’ LE’ HEAT coming back in just 7 days to take a Cal-bred Maiden Special Weight down the dip @ 11-1 running down the 2-1 favorite.

I’ll definitely keep an eye on LE’ HEAT. True, the win was her first placing in nine starts. However, the daughter of top California stallion UNUSUAL HEAT is a June foal which means she’s been at a major disadvantage in her young career. Barry Abrams is a one man California breeding, training, and racing wrecking crew! He runs his stock early and often, mostly sired by his stallion UNUSUAL HEAT. This conditioner runs a racing secretary’s dream operation.

Speaking of Abrams, in Santa Anita’s 4th he starts three of the seven entrants. According to DRF statisitics in the hard copy, he’s started 30 horses. Carla Gaines, trainer of TEAM BUILDER for California mainstay Harris Farms, is next at 18 while the remaining three conditioners total 19 starters. This race is no picnic as the start of the Pick 6. Deep pockets may feel safer buying the event which is loaded with questions, even from the top three morning line choices.

However you plan to participate, good luck!

ZENYATTA

2011-01-18T01:29:00.000-08:00

A once-in-a-lifetime racemare awarded Horse of the Year once and for all.

The 2010 Horse of the Year is ZENYATTA.

This award was not lost. It was won, not on the track this year, perhaps in the softened hearts of even the most hardened voters. Ironically, it took a loss for ZENYATTA to be crowned.

In the end, Churchill Downs, BLAME's home track and the scene of his greatest success, was the reason ZENYATTA reversed the nose decision of the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships raced under "The Twin Spires" in 2010 after consecutive runnings at Santa Anita Park. Jerry and Ann Moss allowed the six year old mare to defend her 2009 BC Classic crown. Crossing the invisible divide that, at times, paralyzes this industry, allowed ZENYATTA to win over enough votes to eclipse BLAME.

More importantly, she introduced countless more fans in and around Kentucky during Breeders' Cup week, and many more via television, to one of the greatest equine spirits. ZENYATTA created renewed interest from the casual sports fan for a great sport that belongs to the masses, no longer just the sport of kings.

As AFFIRMED and SPECTACULAR BID drew me in as a child, I hope there were many families sharing wonderful experiences on November 6 that have renewed their passion or will keep their attention for 2011 and years to come.

Enjoying ZENYATTA where I sat or stood filled me up with all the excitement of those equines from my past. I was part of the throng in the Santa Anita paddock on November 7, 2009 and felt the electricity that ignited a thunderous celebration. It took me back to pre-computer/satellite wagering days. For me and many other Los Angeles area fans, ZENYATTA compelled a visit to the track instead of watching on television.

During the last 1/8 mile at Churchill Downs, it sounded through the TV like the electricity building would have exploded the flux capaciter. There was BLAME, on his home track, as game as any G.I horse withstanding ZENYATTA's late surge. He simultaneously placed "and one" on ZENYATTA's record while using that same dart to burst the balloon that promised to lift the Churchill Downs crowd into another stratosphere.

Those fans showed up en masse to visit her the next morning, stopping traffic on an adjacent street, while BLAME was relatively alone. That was the scene that decided Horse of the Year.

Thank you Mr. & Mrs. Moss, John Shirreffs, Dottie Ingordo-Shirreffs, Steve Willard, Mario Espinoza, Hollywood Park and the rest of the staff at barn 55 for allowing ZENYATTA to get close to her fans.

SANTA ANITA NOTEBOOK: Would ZENYATTA have been as vulnerable as some feel BLIND LUCK is on this dirt track?

2011-01-16T09:35:00.000-08:00

Three track records have been set in three weeks at the Great Race Place; Daily Racing Form suggests the likely 2010 Champion 3y.o. Female is vulnerable in the El Encino Stakes; Only a terrible defeat will tarnish BLIND LUCK’s reputation.

There were times in ZENYATTA’s career that I thought she was vulnerable. On every occasion but one, the great mare stuck at least her nose ahead of her competition. A dirt main track ended her unbeaten streak but the herculean effort may have eclipsed her conqueror, BLAME, for Horse of the Year.

Unlike ZENYATTA, BLIND LUCK suffered her first defeat in just her third career start in the Del Mar Debutante at the hooves of talented but brittle MI SUENO. There have been five other defeats in her 15 race career including two in a six start career on dirt.

With Santa Anita returning to a dirt main track, speed carries like it did before the synthetic era. The majority of winners thus far at The Great Race Place come from on or just off the pace. Jockeys are scrubbing for their lives on the far turn like it’s the final 200 yards. That sort of bias would seem to be severely against classy equines like BLIND LUCK.

Yesterday, there were two stakes races around two turns won in wire-to-wire fashion. TAPIZAR never gave his competition a chance, winning the G.III Sham Stakes wire-to-wire by 4 ¼ lengths in 1:40.38. The Steve Asmussen trainee kept going after setting blazing fractions of :22.62, :45.25, 1:08.83 and got to the mile mark in 1:33.74. In the G.II San Fernando Stakes, INDIAN FIREWATER nostrilized hard charging stable mate TWEEBSTER in 1:41.52. In the other stakes race Patrick Valenzuela gave another throw back performance from on the pace aboard CALIFORNIA NECTAR, defeating the late surge of ZAZU in 1:21.34.

News flash…the track is fast.

However, there have been stakes wins from off the pace which suggest it is fair to a horse with a degree of class.

Horses who have hinted that they are of the highest caliber made national headlines with wins on opening day. TWIRLING CANDY rated as much as 3 lengths off the pace at the ½ mile call in :44.69 before outsprinting BC Sprint third-finisher SMILING TIGER by a nose. Both horses eclipsed SPECTACULAR BID’s seven furlong track record which had held up for just under three decades (not including synthetics).

SWITCH was 4 ½ lengths behind a :22 opening quarter and came on to win the G.I La Brea by an authoritative 4 lengths in 1:20.33.

AGGIE ENGINEER (G.II San Pasqual) scored from off the pace for the first time in his career which adds to the argument that a runner like BLIND LUCK can click if ready.

As I’ve noted before, the Hollywood Park main track is the most dirt-like of the SoCal synthetics. Go back to December of 2009 and the Hollywood Starlet. BLIND LUCK ran on Cushion Track for the first time. She throttled the field by seven lengths, getting the 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.96 earning the comment “ridden out.”

By contrast, Champion Male Juvenile LOOKIN AT LUCKY won the Cash Call Futurity 1:43.30 just one week later.

If you decide to play against BLIND LUCK because you feel she can’t be at her best off a long, hard season and a driving Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic runner-up effort. I don’t think the track can be used as an excuse. She is all class, not like ZENYATTA, but a very special filly in her own right and Champion by any standards.

GRADED STAKES IMPRESSIONS – January 8 & 9

2011-01-10T23:21:00.000-08:00

Has Paddy Gallagher engineered AGGIE to compete at the G.I level after his San Pasqual (G.II) score? Did ‘EMPIRE soar to meet the expectations of Cam Gambolatti in a mild upset in the Hal’s Hope? Did ‘ROSE do enough to convince Bob Baffert should schedule at least one early May day trip?

The highest grade race of the weekend was the San Pasqual S.(G.II), a race that was run as a sweepstakes for the first time after 73 renewals as a handicap. AGGIE ENGINEER was ultra-impressive under the patient handling of Joe Talamo, stalking moderate fractions from third early and exploding through the lane. Paddy Gallagher’s training and perhaps the synthetic/dirt angle resulted in this explosive effort. AGGIE ENGINEER won his first graded stakes after dictating a slow pace in the Native Diver H. (G.III) last month.

AGGIE is a 5y.o. gelding at the peak of his structural maturity, finally doing what his MR. PROSPECTOR stallion line is best at. On dirt, it is not often that a horse runs faster the last ½ of the race than the first. After sprinting home the final 2 ½ furlongs in :29.39, AGGIE ENGINEER figures to be very tough in the San Antonio S. (G.II) on February 6. The Santa Anita Handicap in early March is a very real possibility.

SOARING EMPIRE is considered by Kentucky Derby winning trainer Cam Gambolati as the second-best horse he’s ever trained, behind the inimitable Horse of the Year SPEND A BUCK. Truth be known, Gambolati has not had anything close to a legitimate G.I performer since 1985. However, the son of EMPIRE MAKER out of the winning A.P. INDY dam FLYING PASSAGE, may just develop into that kind of horse. His 2nd dam CHIC SHIRINE won the G.I Ashland in 1987 and her full sister was 1991 Champion Older Female QUEENA.

In the Hal’s Hope S. (G.III), SOARING EMPIRE and Jose Lezcano were much closer to a moderate pace (:24.21, :46.56) than I expected. Javier Castellano, aboard RULE, decided to take back instead of engaging BC Dirt Mile runner-up MORNING LINE in his usual pace setting/pressing style. SOARING EMPIRE persevered to the wire in a rather unspectacular final time of 1:35.99.

Unlike the San Pasqual, the Hal’s Hope was run significantly slower late (:49.43) than the initial ½ mile (:46.56) was negotiated. I feel this win was more a case of MORNING LINE bouncing off his tremendous Dirt Mile effort while Todd Pletcher and Castellano were experimented with RULE, rather than ‘EMPIRE soaring forward. No horses in this division, including MORNING LINE and RULE, should be deterred from taking him on in similar spots because of this win.

I'll prefer to wait on this well bred 4y.o. colt until he goes two turns again...will it be the Donn H. (G.I)?

On Sunday at Santa Anita MAY DAY ROSE won, as her 1-20 odds suggested she would. Unfortunately for bettors, the Santa Ysabel S. (G.III) field was reduced to a laughable three fillies because ZAZU and PLUM PRETTY were declared. Rafael Bejarano had the filly in a drive to maintain her advantage down the lane. He stated that the Bob Baffert trainee, a tiring 4th in TURBULENT DESCENT’s Hollywood Starlet (G.I) win on Cushion Track, once again found the stretch run taxing. Her performance may have been adversely affected by missing a.m. work, showing only one moderate ½ mile spin in the 35 days since she last raced.

On dirt, with more predictable a.m. preparation and a recent racing advantage, MAY DAY ROSE will give local leader TURBULENT DESCENT all she can handle when they meet in the February 5th Las Virgenes S. (G.I). This showdown will determine whether Mike Puype’s ‘DESCENT will extend her unbeaten streak and ascend to the top of the Kentucky Oaks (G.I) contenders.

Have a great week.

SANTA ANITA NOTEBOOK: Dirt Road to the Derby, Part II?

2011-01-03T00:35:00.000-08:00

Bob Baffert is so good that he figured out synthetics in southern California. Now that Santa Anita Park has gone back to a dirt main track, expect him to challenge for Outstanding Trainer for decades to come.

He’s won nine American Classic races: three Kentucky Derby wins, five Preakness Stakes victories, and one win in the Belmont Stakes. Memories of seven different Breeders’ Cup wins are recalled by looking at his own trophy case. He won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer three straight years and was elected into the Hall of Fame in 2009. There have been over 2,000 wins in his career. His one-liners are still so anticipated that he’s sought out to comment on horses he doesn’t even train. While his tongue has dulled a bit in the media in recent years, his training is aging like fine wine…which makes Bob Baffert the most interesting man in horse racing.

Cut to Baffert sitting in a leather chair, while his beautiful wife Jill leans on one arm rest...in his fading southwestern drawl he says, “I don’t always drink beer, but when I do, it’s from one of my two Dubai World Cups.”

Baffert will be celebrating his 58th birthday on January 13. A few days later, long time client Mike Pegram, along with owners Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, should join him on the Eclipse Award podium to accept the award for Champion Male Three Year Old on behalf of Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational winner LOOKIN AT LUCKY. Should that come to fruition, ‘LUCKY will be the 12th Champion Baffert has trained.

The Nogales, Arizona native won his share of graded stakes in SoCal during 2010, G.I races like the Pacific Classic (RICHARD’S KID), Goodwood Stakes (RICHARD’S KID), Santa Anita Handicap (MISREMEMBERED), Triple Bend Invitational Handicap (E Z’S GENTLEMAN), Santa Monica Handicap (GABBY’S GOLDEN GAL), and Pat O’Brien Handicap (EL BRUJO). His name was more in the national conversation because of LOOKIN AT LUCKY’s four graded stakes wins, A Z WARRIOR’s Frizette Stakes (G.I) win, and CONCORD POINT’s two graded stakes wins…all on dirt.

On Sunday, January 2nd, Baffert won a $30,000 maiden claimer with former $150,000 yearling DONATO for Pegram, Watson, and Weitman. He’s been quoted as saying that dirt takes away the brilliance from a race horse. After THE FACTOR broke SUNNY BLOSSOM’s 21 year old track record at six furlongs, he said, “That’s the thing about dirt. You don’t have to worry about (going really fast). Just let the horse show his talents.”

That’s exactly what Joel Rosario allowed DONATO to do. The son of BROKEN VOW is out of stakes winning broodmare TURN TO LASS. There was reason for Baffert to believe DONATO could prove to be a stakes quality performer at the time of his purchase. The dam is a full sister to sturdy multiple G.III winner SPOTSGONE (10-for-48, $659k).

Despite steady but light rain falling on a cold afternoon, the mile race on a track rated “fast” was over as soon as the gates opened. Rosario allowed DONATO to flash even more speed than he showed last out over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track going two turns. In that November 19th race under Joe Talamo’s restraint, with blinkers, DONATO was much too keen setting fractions of :23 1/5, :46 1/5 and 1:11 2/5 and tired badly down the lane to be 5th of 8 almost 14 lengths behind the winner. This time, on dirt and without the shades, Rosario sat aboard a kinder DONATO. While the fractions were quick for the level (:23 1/5, :46 2/5, 1:10 1/5), the tandem drew away emphatically in a final time of 1:35 1/5 earning a "ridden out" comment.

I don’t expect Baffert to put this gelding up for sale after this facile win.

Couple that performance with his super-impressive win/place tandem of IRREFUTABLE and SOLAR ROCKET in Saturday’s 7th, THE FACTOR’s track record performance, and an overall SA record this meeting of 12-5-2-1 (42% wins, 75% in-the-money) and you know what Baffert is saying: “I’m glad the dirt is back.”

Tomorrow, I’ll bring you a follow up discussing Baffert’s evolution as a trainer for horses of any age and specifically offspring of UNBRIDLED'S SONG.